packbacker Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 GEFS starting to get that winter over look with the +NAO and ridge ring. That aleutian ridge drifts any further west....I guess good thing it’s the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 39 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Yep, that is torch in my book.... +20 and above is nuclear. Made me spit drink!! Lol but u are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Pretty big shift in models at the 30mb level... have the warming ending Dec 27th, to a strong PV. This is a late January-early February signal for +EPO/+NAO zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Pretty big shift in models at the 30mb level... have the warming ending Dec 27th, to a strong PV. This is a late January-early February signal for +EPO/+NAO zonal flow. Forgot the highly +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Pretty big shift in models at the 30mb level... have the warming ending Dec 27th, to a strong PV. This is a late January-early February signal for +EPO/+NAO zonal flow. Yayy zonal flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Pretty big shift in models at the 30mb level... have the warming ending Dec 27th, to a strong PV. This is a late January-early February signal for +EPO/+NAO zonal flow. Yep, another +AO/+NAO winter. Just posted above the GEFS starting to get that look. After Mid-Jan it could get ugly...or pretty if you like the flowers blooming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 One thing that is universally agreed upon during the week following Christmas is some very cold air for december invading the conus. 1067hp is likely overdone. lol. But the cold is coming and the process that pushes it into the conus is in the med range. How long it stays and what the upper level config looks like down the line gets pretty muddy. The +ao/nao is doing us folks in the MA/SE no favors though. Nothing is showing a good or typical snow pattern after Christmas but the one key ingredient for a flawed, unusual, or "lucky" storm is cold air and that part should be in place for at least 3-4 days. Hopefully much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One thing that is universally agreed upon during the week following Christmas is some very cold air for december invading the conus. 1067hp is likely overdone. lol. But the cold is coming and the process that pushes it into the conus is in the med range. How long it stays and what the upper level config looks like down the line gets pretty muddy. The +ao/nao is doing us folks in the MA/SE no favors though. Nothing is showing a good or typical snow pattern after Christmas but the one key ingredient for a flawed, unusual, or "lucky" storm is cold air and that part should be in place for at least 3-4 days. Hopefully much longer. Dang, I didn't know we lost -AO!?? The only + we have is the + PNA, and that's looking sketchy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Didn't we pretty much have everything going in our favor just 3 weeks ago? Those were the good ol' days. Cold Rain would do the pretty picture collage and everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Dang, I didn't know we lost -AO!?? The only + we have is the + PNA, and that's looking sketchy! The pattern "should" be epo driven coming up. I mentioned a few similar years in a previous post that were similar to the upcoming look (-epo,+ao, +nao). Jan/Feb 94,14, & 15 are decent analogs. However, those years were locked in to that type of pattern. Have no idea how long the upcoming one lasts and if it changes, where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Didn't we pretty much have everything going in our favor just 3 weeks ago? Those were the good ol' days. Cold Rain would do the pretty picture collage and everything... We never had a -NAO, I don't think. It was being modeled by all the models and looking good, but it never came to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Didn't we pretty much have everything going in our favor just 3 weeks ago? Those were the good ol' days. Cold Rain would do the pretty picture collage and everything... It seems like the -NAO lasted about 30 seconds. All cold shots have been pretty transient, which to my understanding is indicative of a lack of blocking. Still it is better to oscillate between cold and normal than between warm to somewhat less warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We never had a -NAO, I don't think. It was being modeled by all the models and looking good, but it never came to fruition Just checked and the NAO was mostly negative in the second half of November, but never by very much. Crossed over to + territory almost exactly on Dec 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 At least are we getting SSW happening? Seems I read that somewhere which would bode well for January right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, CaryWx said: At least are we getting SSW happening? Seems I read that somewhere which would bode well for January right? You know the board is in a down mood when someone breaks out the SSW or recurving typhoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: You know the board is in a down mood when someone breaks out the SSW or recurving typhoon. Bingo! That's usually reserved for mid - late January! We have to wait til mid February until we hear March 1960 come up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 RIP Winter 2017-2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I hate to give too much emphasis on the indices, mostly since we usually seem to be fighting them. In the first half of December we have had a slightly negative AO, a slightly positive NAO, and a slight to moderately positive PNA. This totes well with a normal to slightly chilly period, which is what we have had. Going forward we have a +/+ AO/NAO combo with a mostly netral PNA, so nothing good. I notice that the CPC lists the AO/NAO/PNA but does not mention the EPO. It seems like a lot of you guys around here who know your stuff are very interested in that. Is the EPO redundant with the PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I am trying to get the hang of the model cadence. GFS/GEFS comes out at 0Z/6Z/12Z/18Z = 7 PM EST/1 AM EST/7 AM EST/1 PM EST. Everybody else comes out at 0Z and 12Z = 7 AM EST /7 PM EST. Is this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 30 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I hate to give too much emphasis on the indices, mostly since we usually seem to be fighting them. In the first half of December we have had a slightly negative AO, a slightly positive NAO, and a slight to moderately positive PNA. This totes well with a normal to slightly chilly period, which is what we have had. Going forward we have a +/+ AO/NAO combo with a mostly netral PNA, so nothing good. I notice that the CPC lists the AO/NAO/PNA but does not mention the EPO. It seems like a lot of you guys around here who know your stuff are very interested in that. Is the EPO redundant with the PNA? To my understanding, the EPO domain is generally north of the PNA. It allows for the build up (or not) of cold air. The PNA domain is farther south, but both can work together to get cold into the US. The indexes really just measure how awesome or sucky the pattern is (which is, of course, a matter of perspective). Coming up, we appear to be entering a period of substantial sucktitude for those in the southeast wanting cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 48 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: To my understanding, the EPO domain is generally north of the PNA. It allows for the build up (or not) of cold air. The PNA domain is farther south, but both can work together to get cold into the US. The indexes really just measure how awesome or sucky the pattern is (which is, of course, a matter of perspective). Coming up, we appear to be entering a period of substantial sucktitude for those in the southeast wanting cold and snow. So we are getting 1983 like -EPO range or lower, but temps like 2012!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: So we are getting 1983 like -EPO range or lower, but temps like 2012!? Yep. I don’t think it’s possible to get into a cold and snowy pattern for the southeast anymore....not without a strongly negative west NAO. Unfortunately, that index goes positive as soon as winter begins and remains that way at least until winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 All models suck! Never seen one showing rain today , nor tomorrow! It's raining! SMDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: All models suck! Never seen one showing rain today , nor tomorrow! It's raining! SMDH Nam has been showing it. Not to the extent that's north of NC. But nobody looks at nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, FLweather said: Nam has been showing it. Not to the extent that's north of NC. But nobody looks at nam I do. Folks tend to dismiss it, especially past 48 hours. I forgot what met stated one time that it has really improved and can be used through all its hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I made a post few to several pages back. But Nam showed convection over the gulf states. Even has the frontal trough drapped across SC GA AL MS while upper energy catches up. Where is the torch? The death ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 51 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep. I don’t think it’s possible to get into a cold and snowy pattern for the southeast anymore....not without a strongly negative west NAO. Unfortunately, that index goes positive as soon as winter begins and remains that way at least until winter is over. I wonder if this is AGW related or just annoying natural variation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 18 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I do. Folks tend to dismiss it, especially past 48 hours. I forgot what met stated one time that it has really improved and can be used through all its hours. I look at Nam all the time. Every time I look at gfs/euro I look at nam too. Each model has their differences. Got too look at all models. If not a bias it becomes. Can't ask about the cold that was predicted. But the future is now. Where that death ridge ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I wonder if this is AGW related or just annoying natural variation. I have no idea. Not sure if there’s any way to know. But it is annoying, like you said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 The Nam does pretty well at closer ranges. After 48 hrs or so, it’s output has a lot of variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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