Orangeburgwx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I don’t think we can get any colder than that 00z run last night, it will be quite interesting if in fact that pattern holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 54 minutes ago, packbacker said: Sadly it’s looks like we will have some shots of cold at the least. Here is what the 850 temps look like a couple of days prior to a few of our biggest nina snows. Need the cold to press a little more. Probably more of an icy pattern but maybe something frozen would be good. I mean with basically the polar vortex I've WVA, I think we'd be plenty cold IF something comes out of the southern stream! Would suck for Savannah to score a snow before RAH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I love how Joe slowly moves the finish line and still claims he is right. He was saying south and east. Not to say his original premise can't be right, but he is starting to waiver. "The PATTERN Favors what https://t.co/kvqB5rsu2Z has been saying. The coldest last 10 days of the year for the nation, centered in the heartland, since 2000." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 When 10mb Pole switched from cold to warm, there was a pattern shift here as well to wetter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 check out the cmc, something tells me its a little over done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 One run later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 12z GFS says: Merry Torchmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Packbacker approves this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Wow, the 12z GFS and 0z EURO are absolutely identical at 144hr. I've never seen two models so perfectly aligned like that before. Unreal. Think we can stick a fork in a cold and/or wintry Christmas holiday. We just better hope the post-Christmas pattern looks good. Maybe slip in an event between DEC 27 - JAN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 12z GFS says: Merry Torchmas! Meh, the Euro hasn't weighed in yet. I won't start to worry until both models are a torches inside 84 hours. Still too far out to start looking for the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: check out the cmc, something tells me its a little over done Not sure where the cold is coming from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1067 HP anyone? O, Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Not sure where the cold is coming from... Those dates are for the past few days?? What are you implying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 It looks warm, but I wouldn't call it a torch. Mid 60s isn't all that bad. Anything above 70 would be torch, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Those dates are for the past few days?? What are you implying? These super cold model runs have no real basis.. yeah there may be a western N America ridge, but the cold air isn't there. The other day, NYC had a record 500mb low, -540 or something.. the surface was -13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Look at some of these temps! Holy smokes. -47! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: It looks warm, but I wouldn't call it a torch. Mid 60s isn't all that bad. Anything above 70 would be torch, IMO. 15 degrees above avg = torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 15 degrees above avg = torch Yep, that is torch in my book.... +20 and above is nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Look at some of these temps! Holy smokes. -47! I think the Canadian model just had a upgrade to reduce the cold bias also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 This model should probably be thrown out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 31 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Meh, the Euro hasn't weighed in yet. I won't start to worry until both models are a torches inside 84 hours. Still too far out to start looking for the cliff. I am a casual lurker here, with no model chops, but I closely follow you guys' discussions. Of the big three models (GFS, euro, GEM) and their ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS), I am under the impression that they all forsee Christmas doom for us. If I am wrong, please somebody let me know. I need some cheering up right now. (I had heard that the EPS was the last holdout, but now it has caved). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 RDU has been at or below normal for 10 straight days. Streak could possibly end today, definitely MON -WED this week. -2.1 so far for December. Should see some much below normal week of Christmas as the month winds down and avg a tick below normal for the second month in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 29 minutes ago, Jonathan said: 1067 HP anyone? O, Canada Going to be funny if we do end up with a record breaking high pressure, after we have all dismissed it as being impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I am a casual lurker here, with no model chops, but I closely follow you guys' discussions. Of the big three models (GFS, euro, GEM) and their ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS), I am under the impression that they all forsee Christmas doom for us. If I am wrong, please somebody let me know. I need some cheering up right now. (I had heard that the EPS was the last holdout, but now it has caved). Timing. Yes Christmas day itself could miss the cold coming by 36 or so hours, but then again it may make the cut by 36. It will be AN next weekend without any clouds or rain,wedge. Cold will be pouring into the conus and spilling our way. We will be BN to possibly much BN most of the last week of DEC and most likely dry as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I am a casual lurker here, with no model chops, but I closely follow you guys' discussions. Of the big three models (GFS, euro, GEM) and their ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS), I am under the impression that they all forsee Christmas doom for us. If I am wrong, please somebody let me know. I need some cheering up right now. (I had heard that the EPS was the last holdout, but now it has caved). Last night's Euro has the cold coming in on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This model should probably be thrown out lol It’s awful. All of these idiot models show super, overwhelmingly ridiculous cold patterns in the LR that never materialize, winter after winter. They don’t show warmth of the same magnitude nearly as frequently in the LR as the cold they show. I don’t know why that is, but they just need to hard code the models to modify air masses beyond 144 by an exponentially increasing amount through the end of their runs. Same for decreasing high pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Last night's Euro has the cold coming in on Christmas Day. Do you mean 0Z Euro operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 39 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: It looks warm, but I wouldn't call it a torch. Mid 60s isn't all that bad. Anything above 70 would be torch, IMO. The most sense and logic I've heard the last couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 hours ago, HKY_WX said: Exciting pattern, some late Jan/early Feb 96 parallels w the pv into the dakatos. This really is a good pattern for overrunning w cad. Aka ice ice baby. You are no fun. Sure you don't want to play? I was thinking more along an A/B hybrid. March and Dec of 1960.Jan 96 Jan10 rings a bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 55 minutes ago, Jonathan said: 1067 HP anyone? O, Canada Record HP inching over CO while we remain under a dumpster fire #SloshTheTub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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