franklin NCwx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 ^ I was just about to post the same thing. Big difference between the op eure and it's ensembles and the gefs. Op euro shows a nice east Tennessee snowstorm Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: ^ I was just about to post the same thing. Big difference between the op eure and it's ensembles and the gefs. Op euro shows a nice east Tennessee snowstorm Christmas day. Seeing chatter on twitter about the potential typhoon giving the models headaches. Is this the what they are talking about...GFS has a sub 900mb typhoon day 7 and euro has vritually nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Webber thinks the GFS is out to lunch with its handling of the typhoon. Anyway, it was good to see the Euro and 0z GFS show a colder look. I still think we get a widespread winter storm between the dates I mentioned yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Webber thinks the GFS is out to lunch with its handling of the typhoon. Anyway, it was good to see the Euro and 0z GFS show a colder look. I still think we get a widespread winter storm between the dates I mentioned yesterday. Great find by you and Packer. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Great find by you and Packer. Interesting. The 384hr GFS had it at 910mb or something a week ago. I wonder what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The 384hr GFS had it at 910mb or something a week ago. I wonder what's going on. No idea. That is a pretty big feature to be on one model and nearly absent on another. I would imagine that is either correctly or incorrectly impacting indices that are calculated for that part of the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 This page still looking funny!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: This page still looking funny!? Bigtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Seeing chatter on twitter about the potential typhoon giving the models headaches. Is this the what they are talking about...GFS has a sub 900mb typhoon day 7 and euro has vritually nothing? I honestly have no idea. I'm sure it is impacting the EPO ridge axis. Hopefully that ridge does not setup too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 It looks like the site has been updated and there was a glitch last night. It looks really good on my Note 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 12z Suite should be interesting today!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Checkout the difference between the 12z and 0z run of the eps valid 7am Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, tramadoc said: It looks like the site has been updated and there was a glitch last night. It looks really good on my Note 8. Are you using Tapatalk? It won’t let me login to American Weather but works fine for everything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Checkout the difference between the 12z and 0z run of the eps valid 7am Christmas morning. Can you elaborate on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Lovin' the new update, AmWx mods! The trends are in our favor for now it seems. It would be nice to get some snow sometime during Christmas week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 37 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Checkout the difference between the 12z and 0z run of the eps valid 7am Christmas morning. Striking image here on the EPS...10-15 day 850mb temperature average. Look at where all of the cold air is located across the northern tier and into Canada compared with the rest of the northern hemisphere. In spite of that, there's no guarantee we see a good chunk of it without the right 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Grit, I really like the changes in the Pacific on the 0z run. We also lost the SW trough much quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 51 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Are you using Tapatalk? It won’t let me login to American Weather but works fine for everything else No. I'm going through Chrome web browser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Fixing to get a phaser on the Yo Yo me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Fixing to get a phaser on the Yo Yo me thinks Cool! Warm rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Why isn't the CAD on the GFS showing stronger? Doesnt make since.... the pattern is saying ICE Storm but its just a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Big differences between the CMC and GFS at day 9; which means the model details should not be focused on at this range. More changes upcoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Why isn't the CAD on the GFS showing stronger? Doesnt make since.... the pattern is saying ICE Storm but its just a cold rain. Even the CMS has a huge 1046 high in the mid-west (day 8); which then has a low push towards/into it from the south. Again, model changes upcoming (good or bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Big differences between the CMC and GFS at day 9; which means the model details should not be focused on at this range. More changes upcoming... The differences in the euro and GFS are laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 24 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Why isn't the CAD on the GFS showing stronger? Doesnt make since.... the pattern is saying ICE Storm but its just a cold rain. CAD is almost always underdone, especially this far out. Models have a very tough time with it in the short range, let alone 10 days away. I would not get caught up in the details right now -- Just know that the pattern supports a storm around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Like Grit stated earleir, the goods are there to had. It all comes down to the 500mb pattern we get dealt that will answer the question of what exactly we get dealt in sensible weather. Right now if you read webber and think big picture,what happens out in the east pacific affects the 500 mb pattern over NA . GFS is way off in that part of the world, so the trickle down or domino effect changes alot of variables down stream for our part like rosby waves and stuff way over my head. There are some constants that look bonified heading into last week of DEC / early Jan. Main one being is the core of cold being on our side of the globe. Rare past few seasons I know, but the good news is its there to be had and hopefully we can get the right path established to get it in our back yards. I'd trust euro and it's ens espeacilly. Trends on that model next several days will answer alot of questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Sure, the GFS and CMC are different, but they both have an absolutely behemoth of a blowtorch for Christmas Eve and Day (especially day as of 12z). I don't think there's a way around that. We've been getting a run here and there that throw us a bone but I think that SER will persist (it's been modeled strong more often than weak) and would expect the EURO to revert back to a warmer solution today and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Just now, Jonathan said: Sure, the GFS and CMC are different, but they both have an absolutely behemoth of a blowtorch for Christmas Eve and Day. I don't think there's a way around that. We've been getting a run here and there that throw us a bone but I think that SER will persist (it's been modeled strong more often than weak) and would expect the EURO to revert back to a warmer solution today and beyond. When alls said and done, Christmas temps will be below normal in the Carolinas, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 SOI tanking the last 6 days,that's a good sign that the MJO is moving and the La Nina isn't overwhelming things yet.Also some strong strat warming over north central Canada lately probably leads to downwelling so a strong high or two coming down somewhere will probably verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 48 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: When alls said and done, Christmas temps will be below normal in the Carolinas, IMO I’m saving this quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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