FallsLake Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 So the last two runs of the GFS have went from a torch look in the LR, to a much colder look. It would have only 5 of the next 16 days averaging above normal (for 2M temps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 47 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Apparently, it's hard to get cold in the southeast. Hopefully, one day , Brick can bone-up on his model watching skills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Yep I'm going with the worst scoring model on the planet 16 days out,come on people .I wouldn't even believe a Euro 10 day map personally. Anyways carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 What the heck..GEFS back to a wintery pattern for the plans/east by d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 For day 10...got to be several snowy members for deep south up into spine of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: What the heck..GEFS back to a wintery pattern for the plans/east by d10. Gonna have to shelve, the golf discs, with that look! It'll change tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: For day 10...got to be several snowy members for deep south up into spine of the Apps. Not a good "wintry weather event" look for the Carolinas, but great changes from yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 29 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: You can always depend on the 384 It takes away the Christmas ICE But Gives you the 384.... Great Model!!! lol Need that HP to move east a tick faster and that puts EVERYBODY in the game. It's already inside 384, what could go wrong?Someone tell the blue turd to start the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Cmc showing possibility around 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, WarmNose said: Need that HP to move east a tick faster and that puts EVERYBODY in the game. It's already inside 384, what could go wrong?Someone tell the blue turd to start the thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snovary said: Cmc showing possibility around 23rd GGEM and RGEM did a great job with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 30 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hopefully, one day , Brick can bone-up on his model watching skills Don’t get testy now! At least we won’t be hot and schweddy this Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 In the frames just before precip arrives it as a 1036 HP being pushed off shore. Where's this "epic" blocking that was supposed to hold our high pressure in place? We need iT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: In the frames just before precip arrives it as a 1036 HP being pushed off shore. Where's this "epic" blocking that was supposed to hold our high pressure in place? We need it East based NAOs don’t hold high pressures in. What you want is a block that holds a 50/50 in place that will build confluence over the northeast and anchor high pressure. That’s what to look for. Unfortunately, you won’t find much of it on today’s maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: East based NAOs don’t hold high pressures in. What you want is a block that holds a 50/50 in place that will build confluence over the northeast and anchor high pressure. That’s what to look for. Unfortunately, you won’t find much of it on today’s maps. I see Cold Rains friend in the Great Lakes! Kind of waving like Pete Schwetty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: East based NAOs don’t hold high pressures in. What you want is a block that holds a 50/50 in place that will build confluence over the northeast and anchor high pressure. That’s what to look for. Unfortunately, you won’t find much of it on today’s maps. Plus, that's a bowling ball! It'll make its own cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I see Cold Rains friend in the Great Lakes! Kind of waving like Pete Schwetty! Yes, while the HP scoots on out the GL low will park itself there like some homeless person standing at the on-ramp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Plus, that's a bowling ball! It'll make its own cold air! I don't know but just out of view on that map up in central Canada must be some serious artic HP pushing down into the great plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, packbacker said: What the heck..GEFS back to a wintery pattern for the plans/east by d10. Let's keep the trend going. It ain't there yet in my opinion. The ridging in the SE has to go. We're getting there though. 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: East based NAOs don’t hold high pressures in. What you want is a block that holds a 50/50 in place that will build confluence over the northeast and anchor high pressure. That’s what to look for. Unfortunately, you won’t find much of it on today’s maps. Any greenland blocking so far in the long range modeling has closer in time morphed into a glorified West Atlantic Ridge. We really need to replace that with lower heights southeast of greenland to get that tool working for us. Haven't seen that in any modeling yet. Would be GREAT though if we can score that in January/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 GEFS lost its mind on that run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 According to Judah it is crunch time for the winter! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS lost its mind on that run... Looks like I got another 1/2 inch of fantasy snow to add to my collection. Although, I don't feel as good when Monterrey, Mexico has the same amount of theoretical snow as MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 8h8 hours ago More GFS Temps and snowcover on Christmas Day. If right would mean ideas on this period we have will have merit. Details not to be trusted, but strong negative EPO and MJO phases favor ideas of widespread cold and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Didnt we have an EPO block pretty much drive a pretty recent spectacular winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Someone got the shaft on that run That's some deep penetration into the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 28 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Didnt we have an EPO block pretty much drive a pretty recent spectacular winter? This. We've seen it before. Hard to envision a hot east coast with a driving -EPO, QBO and a +TNH. AND the MJO going into the cold 8-1 phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Pack is going to love the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Pack is going to love the euro Torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Interesting CAD look on the EURO D10. Big boy 1040+ perfectly placed HP moving in tandem with a southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Well she looks out in front there which is good. Hopfully not cruising (transient) too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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