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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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46 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

A Reminder, we Dont Live at 18k feet

This was Just a friendly reminder from JB today,  THE COLD WILL PUSH.............

Storm last Friday was a nice start to this winter. We wound up with 5 in. Definitely better start than last couple Decembers.

On that note  what  is JB. saying about this SE ridge showing up on 25th?

 

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43 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

A Reminder, we Dont Live at 18k feet

This was Just a friendly reminder from JB today,  THE COLD WILL PUSH.............

A friendly reminder for JB from me: just because you forecast (wish) cold into the east, and ride or die with that, doesn't mean the SE ridge isn't real! He doesn't understand the south, or how to forecast it, IMO 

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

A friendly reminder for JB from me: just because you forecast (wish) cold into the east, and ride or die with that, doesn't mean the SE ridge isn't real! He doesn't understand the south, or how to forecast it, IMO 

So why you follow him? Jus saying!!!  Why you always quoting my post when I refer to what He says??? IF YOU DON"T THINK HE CAN FORECAST THE SE???????????????????????????????????????

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Just now, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Storm last Friday was a nice start to this winter. We would up with 5 in. Definitely better start than last couple Decembers.

On that note  what  is JB. saying about this SE ridge showing up on 25th?

 

He's basically ignoring it and saying the MJO will not allow that to happen, despite it being on all the GFS runs since yesterday! He will preach cold, until there is no chance it will happen! 

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26 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

He's basically ignoring it and saying the MJO will not allow that to happen, despite it being on all the GFS runs since yesterday! He will preach cold, until there is no chance it will happen! 

Maybe so, He's not just a model follower up and down every 6 hours!!!!!! He VERY well may be wrong I've not said He's right? IDK? 

But He is RIGHT about us not living at 18000 feet, Where all those red blobs are forecast........ We might possibly have LL COLD AIR SEEP IN FOR SOME ICE? 

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8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, I'm just saying if there was one GFS run , that gave PA -30 temps and 3' of snow, he wouldn't ignore and not mention that one

I agree on that!  That's where he lives, I would except him to hone in on details.... I just watch him for pattern recognition!! He says all the time He tries to get the pattern right, and your locals get get the details for you.........  But a big event he chimes in down here. The last snow he said several days he thought parts of the Carolinas would see first accumulating snows in his opinion.... 

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3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I agree on that!  That's where he lives, I would except him to hone in on details.... I just watch him for pattern recognition!! He says all the time He tries to get the pattern right, and your locals get get the details for you.........  But a big event he chimes in down here. The last snow he said several days he thought parts of the Carolinas would see first accumulating snows in his opinion.... 

I'll give him props on the last storm ! He did call for Deep South snow! When Houston gets 8" of snow before Boston and New York City receive any, was amazing

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Been watching JB since late 90's early 2000's he is a pattern guy and Tele Connections . Does not always go his way but, he is very good at it. Some say he always says its going to snow. But, the problem is he is not forecasting for 1 spot like where your house sits at. That's  where most people have to read and listen to what he is saying not just what they want to hear. 

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8 minutes ago, Pilotwx said:

Been watching JB since late 90's early 2000's he is a pattern guy and Tele Connections . Does not always go his way but, he is very good at it. Some say he always says its going to snow. But, the problem is he is not forecasting for 1 spot like where your house sits at. That's  where most people have to read and listen to what he is saying not just what they want to hear. 

He's harping on cold east for Christmas. Said it won't be like last 3. Now that looks to be wrong, if GFS is onto something. He just ignores models, again, until they show cold, he worships them!

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

He's harping on cold east for Christmas. Said it won't be like last 3. Now that looks to be wrong, if GFS is onto something. He just ignores models, again, until they show cold, he worships them!

I would guess he is hell bent on the -EPO delivering cold to the central conus and hopes it bleeds east.  I would hope, just like in 2014 and 2015 that it does, but that took until Jan/Feb to get going.  Dec 2013 had -EPO and big SE ridge, pretty much what the ensembles are spitting out now.

 

get_orig_img.php?model=gfsens&run_time=1

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

I would guess he is hell bent on the -EPO delivering cold to the central conus and hopes it bleeds east.  I would hope, just like in 2014 and 2015 that it does, but that took until Jan/Feb to get going.  Dec 2013 had -EPO and big SE ridge, pretty much what the ensembles are spitting out now.

 

get_orig_img.php?model=gfsens&run_time=1

You are correct -EPO and MJO moving into cold phases.......... He might bite the bullet on this, I never said he would be right!! But he has cause to argue for Cold too? I guess we'll see later.................  I was just passing along another Met's OPINION. And people get up tight when it's him, But never with any other Met's OPINION??? #funny

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14 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

You are correct -EPO and MJO moving into cold phases.......... He might bite the bullet on this, I never said he would be right!! But he has cause to argue for Cold too? I guess we'll see later.................  I was just passing along another Met's OPINION. And people get up tight when it's him, But never with any other Met's OPINION??? #funny

I hope he is right, I think it may take until after Xmas.  For us Raleigh folks we are betting off with a colder pattern in Jan anyways.

Below was the EPS for days right around 2013 Xmas versus today's 12z run.

ZSC8bgD.png

eps_z500a_d5_nh_324.png

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

You are correct -EPO and MJO moving into cold phases.......... He might bite the bullet on this, I never said he would be right!! But he has cause to argue for Cold too? I guess we'll see later.................  I was just passing along another Met's OPINION. And people get up tight when it's him, But never with any other Met's OPINION??? #funn

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1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Maybe so, He's not just a model follower up and down every 6 hours!!!!!! He VERY well may be wrong I've not said He's right? IDK? 

But He is RIGHT about us not living at 18000 feet, Where all those red blobs are forecast........ We might possibly have LL COLD AIR SEEP IN FOR SOME ICE? 

Don't understand all the bashing. He is a good met. He just likes winter weather. Who doesn't...? I would rather listen to his forecasts than some of the local yocals who would not say snow until there was several inches on the ground (like this past event). 

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Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Don't understand all the bashing. He is a good met. He just likes winter weather. Who doesn't...? I would rather listen to his forecasts than some of the local yocals who would not say snow until there was several inches on the ground (like this past event). 

Agree 1000% I just don't understand the hate?? If you watch and listen you can glee a lot from him, even though he may not be speaking of your back yard...... He misses like all Met's do, And He admits it when he does..... I've heard him many times say I was to early, wrong here wrong there etc............................

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29 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

You are correct -EPO and MJO moving into cold phases.......... He might bite the bullet on this, I never said he would be right!! But he has cause to argue for Cold too? I guess we'll see later.................  I was just passing along another Met's OPINION. And people get up tight when it's him, But never with any other Met's OPINION??? #funny

I don't like DT either! I don't discriminate? BP out of CLT, SNOomg! ;)

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Well, I am bummed right now.  When I went to work this morning I thought that there was significant model support for a potential cold snap around Xmas.  Now I come home and there is a death ridge on our doorstep.  That seemed to happen awful quickly.

 

I would have preferred for the first half of December to be mild with the second half cold, but I guess its better than a month-long torch a la 2015.

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