Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 46 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: A Reminder, we Dont Live at 18k feet This was Just a friendly reminder from JB today, THE COLD WILL PUSH............. Storm last Friday was a nice start to this winter. We wound up with 5 in. Definitely better start than last couple Decembers. On that note what is JB. saying about this SE ridge showing up on 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 43 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: A Reminder, we Dont Live at 18k feet This was Just a friendly reminder from JB today, THE COLD WILL PUSH............. A friendly reminder for JB from me: just because you forecast (wish) cold into the east, and ride or die with that, doesn't mean the SE ridge isn't real! He doesn't understand the south, or how to forecast it, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: A friendly reminder for JB from me: just because you forecast (wish) cold into the east, and ride or die with that, doesn't mean the SE ridge isn't real! He doesn't understand the south, or how to forecast it, IMO So why you follow him? Jus saying!!! Why you always quoting my post when I refer to what He says??? IF YOU DON"T THINK HE CAN FORECAST THE SE??????????????????????????????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: A friendly reminder for JB from me: just because you forecast (wish) cold into the east, and ride or die with that, doesn't mean the SE ridge isn't real! He doesn't understand the south, or how to forecast it, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Storm last Friday was a nice start to this winter. We would up with 5 in. Definitely better start than last couple Decembers. On that note what is JB. saying about this SE ridge showing up on 25th? He's basically ignoring it and saying the MJO will not allow that to happen, despite it being on all the GFS runs since yesterday! He will preach cold, until there is no chance it will happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: So why you follow him? Jus saying!!! I can't get him off my FB, but he's buried in like a tick or leach, can't get rid of him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: So one day of GFS runs and we're ready to through in the towel. It started yesterday's runs and has ensemble support! Can't just ignore it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: He's basically ignoring it and saying the MJO will not allow that to happen, despite it being on all the GFS runs since yesterday! He will preach cold, until there is no chance it will happen! Maybe so, He's not just a model follower up and down every 6 hours!!!!!! He VERY well may be wrong I've not said He's right? IDK? But He is RIGHT about us not living at 18000 feet, Where all those red blobs are forecast........ We might possibly have LL COLD AIR SEEP IN FOR SOME ICE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Maybe so, He's not just a model follower up and down every 6 hours!!!!!! He VERY well may be wrong I've not said He's right? IDK? Yeah, I'm just saying if there was one GFS run , that gave PA -30 temps and 3' of snow, he wouldn't ignore and not mention that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, I'm just saying if there was one GFS run , that gave PA -30 temps and 3' of snow, he wouldn't ignore and not mention that one What is his name? Can’t find his account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, I'm just saying if there was one GFS run , that gave PA -30 temps and 3' of snow, he wouldn't ignore and not mention that one I agree on that! That's where he lives, I would except him to hone in on details.... I just watch him for pattern recognition!! He says all the time He tries to get the pattern right, and your locals get get the details for you......... But a big event he chimes in down here. The last snow he said several days he thought parts of the Carolinas would see first accumulating snows in his opinion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Will (little rock) said: What is his name? Can’t find his account Joe Bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I can't get him off my FB, but he's buried in like a tick or leach, can't get rid of him! Call ya PC man, lol........ I'm sure he can toss him in the trash!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I agree on that! That's where he lives, I would except him to hone in on details.... I just watch him for pattern recognition!! He says all the time He tries to get the pattern right, and your locals get get the details for you......... But a big event he chimes in down here. The last snow he said several days he thought parts of the Carolinas would see first accumulating snows in his opinion.... I'll give him props on the last storm ! He did call for Deep South snow! When Houston gets 8" of snow before Boston and New York City receive any, was amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Been watching JB since late 90's early 2000's he is a pattern guy and Tele Connections . Does not always go his way but, he is very good at it. Some say he always says its going to snow. But, the problem is he is not forecasting for 1 spot like where your house sits at. That's where most people have to read and listen to what he is saying not just what they want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Pilotwx said: Been watching JB since late 90's early 2000's he is a pattern guy and Tele Connections . Does not always go his way but, he is very good at it. Some say he always says its going to snow. But, the problem is he is not forecasting for 1 spot like where your house sits at. That's where most people have to read and listen to what he is saying not just what they want to hear. He's harping on cold east for Christmas. Said it won't be like last 3. Now that looks to be wrong, if GFS is onto something. He just ignores models, again, until they show cold, he worships them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: He's harping on cold east for Christmas. Said it won't be like last 3. Now that looks to be wrong, if GFS is onto something. He just ignores models, again, until they show cold, he worships them! I would guess he is hell bent on the -EPO delivering cold to the central conus and hopes it bleeds east. I would hope, just like in 2014 and 2015 that it does, but that took until Jan/Feb to get going. Dec 2013 had -EPO and big SE ridge, pretty much what the ensembles are spitting out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 SE ridge FTL...more snow in Tx though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: I would guess he is hell bent on the -EPO delivering cold to the central conus and hopes it bleeds east. I would hope, just like in 2014 and 2015 that it does, but that took until Jan/Feb to get going. Dec 2013 had -EPO and big SE ridge, pretty much what the ensembles are spitting out now. You are correct -EPO and MJO moving into cold phases.......... He might bite the bullet on this, I never said he would be right!! But he has cause to argue for Cold too? I guess we'll see later................. I was just passing along another Met's OPINION. And people get up tight when it's him, But never with any other Met's OPINION??? #funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I'm looking for a ICE STORM with in the next 2-4 weeks. Should be a lot of COLD AIR available with snow being laid down to our north to seep east of the mountains.. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: You are correct -EPO and MJO moving into cold phases.......... He might bite the bullet on this, I never said he would be right!! But he has cause to argue for Cold too? I guess we'll see later................. I was just passing along another Met's OPINION. And people get up tight when it's him, But never with any other Met's OPINION??? #funny I hope he is right, I think it may take until after Xmas. For us Raleigh folks we are betting off with a colder pattern in Jan anyways. Below was the EPS for days right around 2013 Xmas versus today's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: You are correct -EPO and MJO moving into cold phases.......... He might bite the bullet on this, I never said he would be right!! But he has cause to argue for Cold too? I guess we'll see later................. I was just passing along another Met's OPINION. And people get up tight when it's him, But never with any other Met's OPINION??? #funn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I've noticed that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Maybe so, He's not just a model follower up and down every 6 hours!!!!!! He VERY well may be wrong I've not said He's right? IDK? But He is RIGHT about us not living at 18000 feet, Where all those red blobs are forecast........ We might possibly have LL COLD AIR SEEP IN FOR SOME ICE? Don't understand all the bashing. He is a good met. He just likes winter weather. Who doesn't...? I would rather listen to his forecasts than some of the local yocals who would not say snow until there was several inches on the ground (like this past event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Don't understand all the bashing. He is a good met. He just likes winter weather. Who doesn't...? I would rather listen to his forecasts than some of the local yocals who would not say snow until there was several inches on the ground (like this past event). Agree 1000% I just don't understand the hate?? If you watch and listen you can glee a lot from him, even though he may not be speaking of your back yard...... He misses like all Met's do, And He admits it when he does..... I've heard him many times say I was to early, wrong here wrong there etc............................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 29 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: You are correct -EPO and MJO moving into cold phases.......... He might bite the bullet on this, I never said he would be right!! But he has cause to argue for Cold too? I guess we'll see later................. I was just passing along another Met's OPINION. And people get up tight when it's him, But never with any other Met's OPINION??? #funny I don't like DT either! I don't discriminate? BP out of CLT, SNOomg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Call ya PC man, lol........ I'm sure he can toss him in the trash!! Lol he tells what jb tweets faster than u do frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Well, I am bummed right now. When I went to work this morning I thought that there was significant model support for a potential cold snap around Xmas. Now I come home and there is a death ridge on our doorstep. That seemed to happen awful quickly. I would have preferred for the first half of December to be mild with the second half cold, but I guess its better than a month-long torch a la 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 You can still have pretty orange colors over your head at 500mb and be normal or below at the surface. That really isn’t all that unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 If this happens, banana hammock wx for Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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