FallsLake Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: JBs bathtub will save us all! Here's the bathtub. It's weighted heavily with cold to the west (-30 temps) with a fat kid high pressure jumping in. If we had a look like this it would slosh to our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Here's the bathtub. It's weighted heavily with cold to the west (-30 temps) with a fat kid high pressure jumping in. If we had a look like this it would slosh to our side. This run brought snow levels down to San Francisco and Oakland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 49 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: JBs bathtub will save us all! Let's heat those ocean waters up in the gulf and off the SE coast then take our shot mid January with something epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Well the 12z GFS stays consistent with its warm Christmas. We get a healthy looking Bermuda high which actually retrogrades westward in the next frames pushing the cold back westward (amazing look): If this map doesn't make you sick to your stomach, you are not a fan of winter weather. North Texas with negative temperatures while southeast Texas sits around 70 degrees. Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I keep reading the doom & gloom over Christmas temps here. Is any of this backed up by other long range models besides the GFS and its enscrambles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I think the GEFS looks pretty good...cold HP bleediing down from NW Canada under the PV with plenty of activity undercutting. Yeah, the atlantic ridge stinks and will mean more ice then snow potential. I guess there is some benefits to a +NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 pack, Looks like FROPA around then it might seem?? At this range we could have a 'warm' day in advance occur anytime over several days spanning the 25th. That may not be what is locked down yet perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: pack, Looks like FROPA around then it might seem?? At this range we could have a 'warm' day in advance occur anytime over several days spanning the 25th. That may not be what is locked down yet perhaps? Yep cold and warm shots...it could be warm, cutter, then cold...then repeat. But, cutter to a 50/50 with a trailing wave would be nice. It’s not as bad as last winter that’s for sure...knock on wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 My goodness look at the coverage of those subzero temps out west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 32 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep cold and warm shots...it could be warm, cutter, then cold...then repeat. But, cutter to a 50/50 with a trailing wave would be nice. It’s not as bad as last winter that’s for sure...knock on wood. #EXCITED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Too bad Euro doesn't go out 15 days, so we can verify this torch! Models can't get wintry weather right 3 days out, but nail a Packbacker death ridge at 16 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Too bad Euro doesn't go out 15 days, so we can verify this torch! Models can't get wintry weather right 3 days out, but nail a Packbacker death ridge at 16 days out! EPS goes out to 15. Think of the EPS Control as the GFS post D10. It'll be ready for viewing shortly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Lol jump weenies jump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: EPS goes out to 15. Think of the EPS Control as the GFS post D10. It'll be ready for viewing shortly! I'll update my Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Seeing as how most of us get our snow events at 32 degrees (37 degrees for me last week) I think it's safe to say cold doesn't always equal snow around here. Need some moisture to go boom somewhere in the gulf and run into some cold air east of those pesky Appalachian mountains. It's been a while since we had ice. Might be one of those years with all that warm air just off the east/ southeast coast that's being modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Seeing as how most of us get our snow events at 32 degrees (37 degrees for me last week) I think it's safe to say cold doesn't always equal snow around here. Need some moisture to go boom somewhere in the gulf and run into some cold air east of those pesky Appalachian mountains. It's been a while since we had ice. Might be one of those years with all that warm air just off the east/ southeast coast that's being modeled I would agree but that would make me a CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: If too much is 1/8th " ! I got 13". I'm good for winter. Bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Haha. DT's response to the gfs Christmas look: silly over doen extreme GFS bullsh#t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, PGAWx said: Haha. DT's response to the gfs Christmas look: silly over doen extreme GFS bullsh#t. Go ahead Dave, tell us how you really feel....lol. That quote is sig worthy right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Too bad Euro doesn't go out 15 days, so we can verify this torch! Models can't get wintry weather right 3 days out, but nail a Packbacker death ridge at 16 days out! Come on Mack, you of all people know better than to trust the 300+ GFS. Guarantee you, it will not look like that on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I think a Nina ish pattern may dominate until Mid January before it flips back. Certainly been showing up on the models with the SE Ridge and cold N Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 LR GFS is singing "Chestnuts Roasting on I-95" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 hours ago, FallsLake said: Here's the bathtub. It's weighted heavily with cold to the west (-30 temps) with a fat kid high pressure jumping in. If we had a look like this it would slosh to our side. I will say this.... If we have a 1056mb high pressure sitting in Montana, it will squash the SE ridge like a bug. There is no way that this map verifies as shown. I remember some of the more notorious cold air out-breaks in the past and they all featured a 1050+ mb high near that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 18Z GFS has Raleigh around 60 on Christmas Day and 71 on the 26th! Back to the 40s on the 27th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 35 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I will say this.... If we have a 1056mb high pressure sitting in Montana, it will squash the SE ridge like a bug. There is no way that this map verifies as shown. I remember some of the more notorious cold air out-breaks in the past and they all featured a 1050+ mb high near that position. I've seen many of these highs dive down in MT , and dive straight into TX and moderate before it gets to the SE! I'm talking the -20/-30s lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 18Z GFS has Raleigh around 60 on Christmas Day and 71 on the 26th! Back to the 40s on the 27th... JB says models are wrong , ignore them! The GFS is VERY persistent on this heat ridge! I hope consistantly wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Can someone explain the difference between the GFS and GEFS? Also, what other products on tropical tidbits show 2m air temps? I only see it on the GFS, GEFS, and NAVGEM. How do I see that on the ECMWF or EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: JB says models are wrong , ignore them! The GFS is VERY persistent on this heat ridge! I hope consistantly wrong! 18z is not nearly as bad as the 12z run. Looks like a muted version. Still bumps up heights in the southeast, albeit a more zonal look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Can someone explain the difference between the GFS and GEFS? Also, what other products on tropical tidbits show 2m air temps? I only see it on the GFS, GEFS, and NAVGEM. How do I see that on the ECMWF or EPS? The GFS is a deterministic model run. The GEFS is the ensembles to the GFS. The ensembles manipulate the GFS operational run to show variants. The Euro 2m are commonly hidden behind a pay wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 A Reminder, we Dont Live at 18k feet This was Just a friendly reminder from JB today, THE COLD WILL PUSH............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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