FallsLake Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: What's it look like for the days after Christmas? Is that a front moving through from the west? That frame looks like last Tuesday, the last warm day before the cold air moved in. The day after is similar but the cold air would be slowly moving towards the SE (fighting the SE ridge). The last frame does show the cold finally taking over but as we all know this is way out there in time. So, we still have some time until the models home in on the pattern setup for Christmas. I would like to see a cold look by day 10; which means the models need to start changing their look in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I found the 2m temps for GFS on tropical tidbits. Do any of the other models show 2m temps on there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The day after is similar but the cold air would be slowly moving towards the SE (fighting the SE ridge). The last frame does show the cold finally taking over but as we all know this is way out there in time. So, we still have some time until the models home in on the pattern setup for Christmas. I would like to see a cold look by day 10; which means the models need to start changing their look in the next couple of days. I've seen it a hundred times, with the set up depicted on today's 6z GFS , when the Arctic air battles the SE ridge, it can take quite awhile for that air to bleed into the SE and over the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 JB doesn't buy the Gfs Severely negative EPO by day on GFS means it makes little sense day 10-15 with itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: That's my worry. I can't stand a Christmas with the windows open. 6z GFS for mid-day Christmas (Christmas Eve is similar). Makes me feel like we're living in Central FL with those temps.for Christmas. The last three have been so warm that my kids played in t-shirts and jeans while riding new toys. I'm gonna take my family and move back to Marquette. At least in the UP we have snow. No summer to speak of, but definitely winter. Maybe I'll just keep a summer home here. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 hours ago, Cold Rain said: I think we probably relax for a couple weeks in Jan, but I am not bullish on a sustained winter is over kind of warm pattern this year. I think that will end up being the real snipe hunt of the winter of 17/18. Good to see the persistent -AO/-EPO atleast. Hopefully we can keep that going into January and hope the SE ridge relaxes some and we get some form of Greenland blocking. Snowcover to our NW won’t be an issue either. This is probably a good thing, we suck at snow in December. This Dec won’t be all that different then Dec 08 and 13. Those winters turned out alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Ensembles are now in pretty good agreement that our beloved Alaskan ridge is going to retrograde back north/west, shifting the trough to our west and popping a decent SE ridge toward the holidays. Perhaps things shift better cause it's still a long ways out. But I don't think so. My biggest concern has been we'd have a good/decent period in December outside of good climo, and soon as we get into our wheelhouse in January we'd lose the pattern. Looks like that may be the case. Hopefully in January our -QBO and low solar can kick back in and get us some good blocking back. I hope Nina climo is not taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Wow...hearing the weeklies torch as you we get into January and now the JMA seasonal is just lovely. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Amazing how we can't get cold without it being pushed back in time, but I promise the death ridge will be right on time or early, spreading Christmas joy to all the good little girls and boys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Amazing how we can't get cold without it being pushed back in time, but I promise the death ridge will be right on time or early, spreading Christmas joy to all the good little girls and boys! You just got a bunch of snow...to much to early is never good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 To break up the doom and gloom. Nam showing a little more amplification on the weekend storm, may atleast mean rain or flurries for somebody..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 54 minutes ago, packbacker said: Wow...hearing the weeklies torch as you we get into January and now the JMA seasonal is just lovely. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php That seems to be the theme from our recent winters. If there is one thing to bet on each winter, it's a SE ridge with AN temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: You just got a bunch of snow...to much to early is never good. If too much is 1/8th " ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If too much is 1/8th " ! I got 1/8 of a flake at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I got 1/8 of a flake at my house. I had a sleet pellet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snowacane said: I had a sleet pellet Still better than last December.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 25 minutes ago, packbacker said: You just got a bunch of snow...to much to early is never good. Shoot, I am fine with taking my 9 inches and calling it a winter; better than most. Anything else is gravy. However, still hope all of you that missed out get something this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowNiner said: Ensembles are now in pretty good agreement that our beloved Alaskan ridge is going to retrograde back north/west, shifting the trough to our west and popping a decent SE ridge toward the holidays. Perhaps things shift better cause it's still a long ways out. But I don't think so. My biggest concern has been we'd have a good/decent period in December outside of good climo, and soon as we get into our wheelhouse in January we'd lose the pattern. Looks like that may be the case. Hopefully in January our -QBO and low solar can kick back in and get us some good blocking back. I hope Nina climo is not taking over. I thought orange map colors were good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If too much is 1/8th " ! Your so lucky...I would take 1/8" in a heartbeat...that's more then I have seen since Feb 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 28 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Still better than last December.... Very true!! And the one before that when I had the AC on at Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Probably to little to late...but didn't we just see this shift last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Amazing how we can't get cold without it being pushed back in time, but I promise the death ridge will be right on time or early, spreading Christmas joy to all the good little girls and boys! Dang Mack, You're making me miss Widre's old rants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Well the 12z GFS stays consistent with its warm Christmas. We get a healthy looking Bermuda high which actually retrogrades westward in the next frames pushing the cold back westward (amazing look): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Sweet! Maybe it will keep on trucking and be over the SW by New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Merry Christmas! Let's see what the ensembles have to say first. I am in denial... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Merry Christmas! Maybe a re-curving typhoon will save us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Maybe a re-curving typhoon will save us.... Something needs to save us.. Definitely a la nina look (in the extreme way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: Something needs to save us.. Definitely a la nina look (in the extreme way). Well it can’t not snow in Raleigh forever...I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Well it can’t not snow in Raleigh forever...I hope. JBs bathtub will save us all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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