packbacker Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: JB says the 10-15 day period on eps run, was like January 4-8th period of '14! 2014 would be great...if we get some ridging down into Greenland to shove the PV further south to help mute that SER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We just need to get it over the mountains!! No one in NC/SC wants any part of an Arctic plunge that gets caught bisecting TN and gives Memphis the snowy/icy goods! Looks more like Dec 2013...which would be a good prelude to a great Jan and Fab Feb. Maybe that's what he meant...I miss JB's hype video's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 ^ That's a fairly stout western ridge. A lot of cold should be building up in eastern Canada and spilling into the northern tier of the US, should that pattern verify. With a well-timed high, we'd probably be looking at a nice winter storm, even with that extremely muted yellow shading across the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 30 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: JB says the 10-15 day period on eps run, was like January 4-8th period of '14! He also said storm this weekend could be back in same areas as last one that models will trend NW. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Still waiting on those HPs to line up in the northeast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 28 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ That's a fairly stout western ridge. A lot of cold should be building up in eastern Canada and spilling into the northern tier of the US, should that pattern verify. With a well-timed high, we'd probably be looking at a nice SLUSH storm, even with that extremely muted yellow shading across the southeast. FYP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 18z GFS is dreaming of an Apps Runner Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 surprised nobody mentioned the uk its not great but it aint ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 hours ago, griteater said: I can tell by the tone of HKY_WX's internet voice that he's looking for this wave to dig more and be a little stronger...he's good with patterns and projecting future model possibilities Probably due to the fact of the southwest energy. Don't really see how it holds in place or retrogrades. It gets ejected in some form. How what where? Plus the northern stream diving down rounding the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: That'll lay down snowpack for the Saturday storm That is the Saturday storm. This coming weekend. Depend on alot of factors of how this evolves. Could be a clipper to a GOM low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, FLweather said: That is the Saturday storm. This coming weekend. Depend on alot of factors of how this evolves. Could be a clipper to a GOM low. There was some chatter earlier about a clipper for NC on Wednesday, that's what I was referring to, with laying down snow pack. It must have not been on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 what does it look like guys for the Friday night Saturday deal, I hear it looks good one minute and what storm the next, does anyone have any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Euro Weeklies snowfall thru Jan 26 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 41 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: There was some chatter earlier about a clipper for NC on Wednesday, that's what I was referring to, with laying down snow pack. It must have not been on 18z GFS It’s only on the Euro and it’s ensembles for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Other models have the clipper further north in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Avdave said: Euro Weeklies snowfall thru Jan 6 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 That's looks about right. Storms have cut 15 miles from MBY for years. Last storm not a flake but 15 miles north got snow. Need a true southern slider to help me. Need GFS to show show in Cuba 7 days out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, fritschy said: what does it look like guys for the Friday night Saturday deal, I hear it looks good one minute and what storm the next, does anyone have any ideas? Not out of the question that we get a storm fritschy, but it's a low chance deal right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Not out of the question that we get a storm fritschy, but it's a low chance deal right now Or a rainy deal! Also hard to get excited about a Christmas cold snap, much less wintry precip ! That is a true Snipehunt around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 hours ago, Disco-lemonade said: surprised nobody mentioned the uk its not great but it aint ugly! Let's get that HP trending a little stronger snd just a tick slower. That HP off the coast of Washington looks pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Or a rainy deal! Also hard to get excited about a Christmas cold snap, much less wintry precip ! That is a true Snipehunt around here I am sure there are many folks on here that don't know about snipe hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Euro Weeklies... Week 2: similar pattern to what we've been in. Near normal temps. Cold to our north. Warm in SW states / California. Dry in the SE Week 2.5 to Week 3: western ridge is strengthened and pushed poleward along Canadian west coast and into Alaska. Hudson Bay cold vortex. +NAO. Temps are below normal east of the Rockies except FL. SE Canada is very cold. Precip is near normal. This would be for Dec 22-Jan 1. Week 4: Trough moves out west, weak SE ridge. Slightly above normal temps. Wetter than normal Week 5-6: +EPO pattern with Alaska cold. Warm over the lower 48. Looks odd to me given the ENSO/QBO phase we are in, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Not buying the pattern flip just yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I think we probably relax for a couple weeks in Jan, but I am not bullish on a sustained winter is over kind of warm pattern this year. I think that will end up being the real snipe hunt of the winter of 17/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, WarmNose said: Let's get that HP trending a little stronger snd just a tick slower. That HP off the coast of Washington looks pretty That high is pretty close, probably a 1028 would do the trick. They normally seem to set up shop in New England and we need something in the 1030s there. Wouldn't mind seeing a blocking high in the N Atlantic to keep it in place a bit, maybe knock that low down to a 1010 , but overall not a bad look. Maybe a little taller ridge in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Well, all the overnight posts were a bad sign! But on a happier note, 6z seemed kind of close for the Carolinas on the Fri/Sat event! Precip shield makes it to almost CAE! NW trend and temps borderline, but it's all we got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The SE ridge is a BEAST, until the 29th! That cold Christmas that was showing, might not be happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 0z Euro looked good with low placement for Sat possibly, not sit on temps!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The SE ridge is a BEAST, until the 29th! That cold Christmas that was showing, might not be happening That's my worry. I can't stand a Christmas with the windows open. 6z GFS for mid-day Christmas (Christmas Eve is similar). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The SE ridge is a BEAST, until the 29th! That cold Christmas that was showing, might not be happening What site are you using to see out that far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: That's my worry. I can't stand a Christmas with the windows open. 6z GFS for mid-day Christmas (Christmas Eve is similar). What's it look like for the days after Christmas? Is that a front moving through from the west? That frame looks like last Tuesday, the last warm day before the cold air moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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