McDowell_Weather Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Some of the models werent moist enough imo. I just dont know about all these upgrades its honestly made them worse. Used too the euro would have sniffed this last storm out easily within five days. Now you cant even trust it 48hr out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, griteater said: I can tell by the tone of HKY_WX's internet voice that he's looking for this wave to dig more and be a little stronger...he's good with patterns and projecting future model possibilities If that set up...."sets up" would the 50/50 low/greenland blocking create some confluence from the northeast? I would think you'd want the ridging and the Newfoundland low further southeast to get confluence down to us. Trying to find some cold air for this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Euro has some light snow across NC Wednesday night/Thursday morning from a clipper passing by. Looks like maybe a dusting if it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Euro has some light snow across NC Wednesday night/Thursday morning from a clipper passing by. Looks like maybe a dusting if it sticks. That'll lay down snowpack for the Saturday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: If that set up...."sets up" would the 50/50 low/greenland blocking create some confluence from the northeast? I would think you'd want the ridging and the Newfoundland low further southeast to get confluence down to us. Trying to find some cold air for this potential. Niner - it's a lot like last week where the limited cold air would come from a suppressed height field as opposed to a nice sfc high to our north. Euro run coming in is a little colder, but it doesn't dig the wave enough to the southwest and isn't sharp enough at the base....it's dry with some light stuff in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, griteater said: I can tell by the tone of HKY_WX's internet voice that he's looking for this wave to dig more and be a little stronger...he's good with patterns and projecting future model possibilities lol, thanks. I think it's possible, but not likely per se. Something to watch. I think one of these little waves coming through late week could produce something worth noting. Probably not a big dog. Would like to see one of these generally less progressive models (NAVGEM/JMA/GGEM) show a more aggressive solution before I think it's likely. Since the euro was upgraded, it seems to trend less progressive as we near any "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Verbatim 1" for SE VA following the clipper Wed night-early Thu morning according to 12z Euro. I take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 hours ago, Cold Rain said: He doesn't mean anything by it...just being humorous. Thanks for the clarification. I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, SteveVa said: Verbatim 1" for SE VA following the clipper Wed night-early Thu morning according to 12z Euro. I take. I'm with you. I'm in extreme NE NC, just south of Cheesypeake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I am sure this weekend will come NW like most generally do if there is a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, tramadoc said: I'm with you. I'm in extreme NE NC, just south of Cheesypeake... Yeah, our area tends to do not-so-well with clippers but occasionally we get lucky. I'd rather worry about moisture than thermals, especially after last weekend and 2.5" of rain at 35-38 degrees. 12z GFS and Euro don't look too bad, we could definitely squeeze out a dusting, or even an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 The clipper for the middle of the week doesn't look like much, but it would be awesome to see snow falling for the second time during the first half of December. I don't recall the last time I have seen that happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, POWERSTROKE said: I am sure this weekend will come NW like most generally do if there is a storm Probably so sir! By the way, you have a loooooooootttt of extra blank space in your signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 30 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: The clipper for the middle of the week doesn't look like much, but it would be awesome to see snow falling for the second time during the first half of December. I don't recall the last time I have seen that happen here. 2010; we had three events in our area. Dec 4th had 2-3" inches of snow through our area, Dec 15th we had 1.5" of snow and 1/10 of ice through our area, and then we had the Christmas storm with 9-10" of snow through our area. Truly a great December for us. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: 2010; we had three events in our area. Dec 4th had 2-3" inches of snow through our area, Dec 15th we had 1.5" of snow and 1/10 of ice through our area, and then we had the Christmas storm with 9-10" of snow through our area. Truly a great December for us. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartYear=1969&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2015&EndMonth=08&EndDay=1&Submit=Submit&page=1 I thought that might have been it, but couldn't recall. I think the epic Christmas snow made me forget about the other two events. Maybe we're setting up for a December like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 One thing I do like is that there is no GOA vortex of death or screaming Pac jet to scour out all the cold in Canada. That's definitely a big plus, if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, POWERSTROKE said: I am sure this weekend will come NW like most generally do if there is a storm Yea I noticed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: One thing I do like is that there is no GOA vortex of death or screaming Pac jet to scour out all the cold in Canada. That's definitely a big plus, if you ask me. Especially if the AO is positive, we'll have very little cross polar flow. We'll need NA to create/keep it's own cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Also most of Canada's big lakes and most of the Hudson Bay has about frozen over. This will help stop the modification of very cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I guess the GEFS was correct after all about the growing SER in the extended. Should be a great pattern for the TN/OH valley. It's not 2012 or 2016 pattern....so we have that atleast. The +NAO will be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: I guess the GEFS was correct after all about the growing SER in the extended. Should be a great pattern for the TN/OH valley. It's not 2012 or 2016 pattern....so we have that atleast. The +NAO will be problematic. Lol! That's five day anomalies, and we could still score with that look! !!!!! I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! That's one day anomalies, and we could still score with that look! LOL! It says day 10-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: LOL! It says day 10-15? We could score overrunning all day, everyday, and twice on Sunday, with that look! Not worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We could score overrunning all day, everyday, and twice on Sunday, with that look! Not worried Yep...it won't be dry with that look and plenty cold just to our NW. And with that SER it might be good building snow pack to our NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 ^^I agree Mack. It would be a battle between the SE ridge and the cold press from the NW. The GFS shows (day 16) what could happen with this type of setup. JB once stated that cold dense air will overwhelm the pattern; basically cutting under the warmth more than the models will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL! It says day 10-15? How do you get to the EPS charts on weather.us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: How do you get to the EPS charts on weather.us? Here you go... http://wx.graphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Here you go... http://wx.graphics/ Thanks! I couldn't find a link to it off of the main www.weather.us page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Here you go... http://wx.graphics/ JB says the 10-15 day period on eps run, was like January 4-8th period of '14! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, FallsLake said: ^^I agree Mack. It would be a battle between the SE ridge and the cold press from the NW. The GFS shows (day 16) what could happen with this type of setup. JB once stated that cold dense air will overwhelm the pattern; basically cutting under the warmth more than the models will show. We just need to get it over the mountains!! No one in NC/SC wants any part of an Arctic plunge that gets caught bisecting TN and gives Memphis the snowy/icy goods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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