mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Clipper party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GEFS and EPS both show rising heights in the SE in the the extended. Both show MJO into ph7...ph8 to end Dec start Jan would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 TWC locals have me at basically normal temps from the 11th till the end of the 10 day!? What up with that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: TWC locals have me at basically normal temps from the 11th till the end of the 10 day!? What up with that?? Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Nice Miller B ice storm on Dec 18 on 6 z GFS! Loaded pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Something to keep an eye on; looks like a clipper comes down and then re-develops off the coast next Tuesday. Central and eastern NC have done well with these in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Something to keep an eye on; looks like a clipper comes down and then re-develops off the coast next Tuesday. Central and eastern NC have done well with these in the past. Euro looking good with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Models continue to look good in the LR for a general trough in the east. The pattern gets a little muted toward the end, but it doesn't look like it's ready to break down or radically shift. Will probably be tracking additional threats, from clippers to overrunnigs to Miller Bs, over the next couple of weeks. One thing I do not see that I would like to see is consistently progged High Pressure over the northern tier. The eye of the needle is going to be pretty tight until that changes. Otherwise, at least it's fun to get off to a fast start this winter, for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Indices look ok today: PNA - Looks to stay positive from now(~+1) to the LR (~+.5). AO - Stays negative from now to the LR. Averages -1 throughout. NAO - Will fall to negative in the LR (~-1). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I think the time frame from the 15th to the 18th is worthy for something trackable to pop. Don't hold me to it but GFS ensembles have been hinting at precip down around the gulf following a dry period with plenty of cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 More interested in this time frame and the week after. My main concern is all the energy coming out of the north down through the Great Lakes and the Dakotas. Need a bomb in the gulf and a HP to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, WarmNose said: More interested in this time frame and the week after. My main concern is all the energy coming out of the north down through the Great Lakes and the Dakotas. Need a bomb in the gulf and a HP to the north Really need the snow cover to our north to greatly expand. A decent snow cover to the northeast will help greatly and to a less extent we really need the snow cover to expand south from the canadian border to help keep the cold air from modifying so much. All the bare ground we currently have to our north is doing us no favors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Looks like some potential cold air incoming as the run ends at christmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Going to be a long 2 weeks as the pattern begins to reset/breakdown around D10. Those of us missing out on the snow now will have to hope for something late December to early January to pop up. Until then it looks like clippers to our north and the return of the SE ridge around D10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 hours ago, snowlover91 said: Going to be a long 2 weeks as the pattern begins to reset/breakdown around D10. Those of us missing out on the snow now will have to hope for something late December to early January to pop up. Until then it looks like clippers to our north and the return of the SE ridge around D10-15. Maybe this will be the winter where a change to a warm pattern keeps getting pushed back in time, instead of the usual opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Maybe this will be the winter where a change to a warm pattern keeps getting pushed back in time, instead of the usual opposite. Probably not.. With this being a Nina and current indices around moderate range it favors a warm winter especially after January 15th. The window we have is extremely narrow if it follows typical Nina climo and the EPS along with the GEFS both agree around D10 we flip to a SE ridge and much warmer temperatures. It may be temporary/reloading though, it's just hard to tell right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18z GFS for Christmas Eve in Clayton... Sun 12/24 18Z 69 ° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Solak said: 18z GFS for Christmas Eve in Clayton... Sun 12/24 18Z 69 ° I sure hope not. I am sick and tired of the warm Christmases. I still haven't recovered from Christmas 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I sure hope not. I am sick and tired of the warm Christmases. I still haven't recovered from Christmas 2015. I just noticed that the 6Z GFS posted by Snovary a few posts back showed an impressive cold shot for 12/24. Did the model flip that much in two runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 9 hours ago, cbmclean said: I just noticed that the 6Z GFS posted by Snovary a few posts back showed an impressive cold shot for 12/24. Did the model flip that much in two runs? Christmas day looks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Don't sleep on the 19th and 23rd! Cold rain specials! Don't worry about details now, the pattern is ripe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 It is breath taking outside today lol. Still snowing and just measured almost 10”. This is amazing -it’s still snowing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 well i was left with nothing but a cold rain special... I swear ill move out west one of these days, but i'm happy for anybody who gets snow in the south. We central nc folks will get ours! I'm just glad it wasnt mid jan with this one like last winter... anyways the gfs ensembles give up little hope for the future as we enter a fairly cold and dry period until maybe the 15 or 16 still have some good cold hanging around as well, i like this time frame for another climo favored snow storm. you know what that means for us centrals but dont sweat it guys still have a lot of winter to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 If we can get a look like this sometime in mid January with a strong hp to our north, I think we'll put some of our friends to the east in the game. Big blue turd, start the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 We've got action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, WarmNose said: We've got action! We need that snow to be in Cuba to account for the NW jog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/3/2017 at 11:52 AM, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie has a 1009 low right off Cape Hattaras at 144,temps look marginal. Carry on. And we have a 1003 low right off Hatteras now,Ukie wins again. Has a weak 1013 low south of Mobile at 144 today with colder air across the upper south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: And we have a 1003 low right off Hatteras now,Ukie wins again. Has a weak 1013 low south of Mobile at 144 today with colder air across the upper south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 49 minutes ago, No snow for you said: We need that snow to be in Cuba to account for the NW jog If you zoom in you can see the green warm bubble rain over western upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: If you zoom in you can see the green warm bubble rain over western upstate. Yeah, one does not post 300hr maps , after the traumatic experience we just went through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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