NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 31 minutes ago, griteater said: Man, the more detailed maps come out later, but the UKMet looks more like the CMC. Both of those are digging the northern stream wave more SW than the GFS, into New Mexico and picking up more of the energy hanging around there across northern Mexico...but UKMet shows a nice wave that slowly comes out with sfc low off the SE coast. You get hold of these yet? Away from computer and Clint Eastwood hasnt shown up at lunch today like he normally does to spill the euro/ukmet goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GFS was disheartening. CMC was a nice storm but keep in mind that model had the low over Bermuda yesterday... not exactly a model that broods confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: You get hold of these yet? Away from computer and Clint Eastwood hasnt shown up at lunch today like he normally does to spill the euro/ukmet goodies. Here's the UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Even on CMC, temps look sketchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 UK/CMC and even the Navgem all are in the same ballpark. GFS is so much quicker with the wave. 12z Navgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Friday looks like it could be the appetizer for what's coming down the road between the 15th and 20th. Really, seeing any snow at all this early in the game would be awesome with the Friday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 38 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: If the Euro and EPS hold serve, we may get a bit of snow here- unusual for this early. Any real accumulations seem unlikely though, one big factor is the warm ground. Still any snow before we even hit the Solstice would be a bonus. I would rather get snow in Dec than in late Feb or March ! Temps are usually colder and sun angle is lower ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Looks like half the members have snow here, with a couple nice hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 UK has shifted the QPF further NW each of the past 3 runs now. Total QPF below over 6 days but looks like for central NC about 1" QPF falls with the Friday/Saturday wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Keeping a close eye on this from West Cobb. Kid has a basketball game early Saturday and his team was offered practice time at Phillips Arena that afternoon-would hate for the kids to lose a chance like this. Any thoughts on what ATL metro and north should expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, packbacker said: UK has shifted the QPF further NW each of the past 3 runs now. Total QPF below over 6 days but looks like for central NC about 1" QPF falls with the Friday/Saturday wave. Triangle may get the bullseye on this one. To me it looks too strung out and too late of a bloomer to really make any difference to CLT west, not to mention the temp issues. Seems like an Eastern NC special to me. Maybe this one will set the stage for an event more toward mid-month once the cold air is established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro out to 63 looks closer to the CMC than the GFS. It's bending the heights back thru Colorado and trying to pick up the southern shortwave in northern Baja and southern Arizona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 euro rain for clt and much of nc with minimal precip. looks like mixing for rdu north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro out to 102. It's dropping too much wave energy down into northern Mexico (bias maybe?), but with a steep western ridge, more northern stream energy is dropping south and it has light snow or mix back into western NC it looks like At 105-108, it looks like decent snow or mix in NC foothills More precip back inland this run in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 No snow showing on Vista snow map, so it's obviously borderline with temps. To me though it looks like it would be mostly snow in NC foothills and mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 This is going to be the classic case of you want to be far enough West for the good temps but far enough east for the slug of moisture thrown inland. Welcome to NC Winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On the Euro, there is a shortwave in the flow with the storm that drops straight south from N Dakota to Dallas, TX....impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, griteater said: No snow showing on Vista snow map, so it's obviously borderline with temps. To me though it looks like it would be mostly snow in NC foothills and mtns. From the Sounding data I've seen... everyone in Central & western NC and western SC is well below freezing with the exception of right at the surface. Even up just few hundred meters from the surface is -2 C or colder. I imagine if anyone can get decent rates on Friday it should knock the surface down to freezing and allow for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Much better run of the Euro this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: From the Sounding data I've seen... everyone is well below freezing with the exception of right at the surface. Even up just few hundred meters from the surface is -2 C or colder. I imagine if anyone can get decent rates on Friday it should knock the surface down to freezing and allow for accumulations. The GSP wintry wording will go up this aftn as long as they don't marry themselves to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, griteater said: On the Euro, there is a shortwave in the flow with the storm that drops straight south from N Dakota to Dallas, TX....impressive Looks like that low does bomb off the coast at 126-132 and ends up hitting the NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, burrel2 said: From the Sounding data I've seen... everyone in Central & western NC and western SC is well below freezing with the exception of right at the surface. Even up just few hundred meters from the surface is -2 C or colder. I imagine if anyone can get decent rates on Friday it should knock the surface down to freezing and allow for accumulations. Agreed. It seems like the RN/SN line sets up where you have rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Hell, I need the moisture, I don't care about temps and snow, I'm in D3 drought practically. So showers starting tomorrow and the frontal band of rain, makes me giddy! Screw the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro has precip blossoming again day 5-6 and more snow for central/eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: The GSP wintry wording will go up this aftn as long as they don't marry themselves to the GFS. Isohomey, is married to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looks like that low does bomb off the coast at 126-132 and ends up hitting the NE? Wouldn't have it any other way! Congrats DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looks like that low does bomb off the coast at 120? You are right. There are actually 3 waves of low pressure riding the arctic front along the coast on the Euro. First is weak with light rain/sprinkles. Second is gulf to off SE coast with wintry precip inland. Third develops off NC coast and hits eastern New England with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, griteater said: You are right. There are actually 3 waves of low pressure riding the arctic front along the coast on the Euro. First is weak with light rain/sprinkles. Second is gulf to off SE coast with wintry precip inland. Third develops off NC coast and hits eastern New England with snow Crazy run...wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago The 12z ECMWF literally shows several inches of snow Friday/Saturday across central/east-central NC and a dusting of snow down to the Gulf Coast. image courtesy of http://wx.graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 31 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Much better run of the Euro this time. Cold Rain likes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.