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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

Hanging back the southern energy and consolidating, and not allowing that weak leading wave to shoot the sfc low up the frontal boundary first would change the game a bit.  If it stays strung out, still potential there for a couple of inches depending on how far east/west the front is.  If it slows and consolidates more of a singular surface low then potential for more precip (and more snowfall) significantly increases.

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ajr

ajr

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Wow said:

Hanging back the southern energy and consolidating, and not allowing that weak leading wave to shoot the sfc low up the frontal boundary first would change the game a bit.  If it stays strung out, still potential there for a couple of inches depending on how far east/west the front is.  If it slows and consolidates more of a singular surface low then potential for more precip (and more snowfall) significantly increases.

Always appreciate your analysis - if you have a minute, can you put up some maps showing what you’re seeing?

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, packbacker said:

The EPS also still trending slower with the wave.  Definitely seeing improvements with blocking....lower heights building towards NF, Greenland block getting better and also the pac is improving.

 

yI8Xqqg.gif

 

Judging by the height Anomaly you can also see that the that's a highly positive trough in the makings.  Northern stream energy gets pulled by the HP retrograding sw. Looks like the nam around the same time frame 75-84. Damn shame cuz alot of NC Piedmont showing freezing levels around 1500 to 1800 feet high. Stronger energy would bring snow levels down from Charlotte north of Durham etc. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Judging by the height Anomaly you can also see that the that's a highly positive trough in the makings.  Northern stream energy gets pulled by the HP retrograding sw. Looks like the nam around the same time frame 75-84. Damn shame cuz alot of NC Piedmont showing freezing levels around 1500 to 1800 feet high. Stronger energy would bring snow levels down from Charlotte north of Durham etc. 

Yep...people NW of 85 want a quicker neutral/neg trough.   People in Raleigh don’t  :-)

I would like to see a big bomb even though it takes Raleigh out of it.  A couple of inches on grassy surfaces is probably best Raleigh can do in early Dec...

 

 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, packbacker said:

The EPS also still trending slower with the wave.  Definitely seeing improvements with blocking....lower heights building towards NF, Greenland block getting better and also the pac is improving.

 

yI8Xqqg.gif

 

Pack is slowly improving! :)

Also, somebody said RAH seems un impressed, when are they ever gung-ho

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Pack is slowly improving! :)

Also, somebody said RAH seems un impressed, when are they ever gung-ho

It's not that pack is slowly improving. It's the fact that what's been advertised by the models maybe coming to fruition. You and alot  of people may not notice it.  Before this "first real" threat.  There were model runs showing omega blocks and Rex blocks.  If that HP pull enough northern energy than that may provide a Rex block. If it don't so be.  But getting close to crunch time.  The energy dropping from this trough may or may stay consolidated enough for the northern diving impulses to do anything with.  ATM unless some things change its Euro/nam vr gfs. 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, FLweather said:

It's not that pack is slowly improving. It's the fact that what's been advertised by the models maybe coming to fruition. You and alot  of people may not notice it.  Before this "first real" threat.  There were model runs showing omega blocks and Rex blocks.  If that HP pull enough northern energy than that may provide a Rex block. If it don't so be.  But getting close to crunch time.  The energy dropping from this trough may or may stay consolidated enough for the northern diving impulses to do anything with.  ATM unless some things change its Euro/nam vr gfs. 

So , the more and more this slows down, the more time cold air has to get here and it's better for W Carolinas?

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jjwxman

jjwxman

Posted
Posted

I'm siding with RAH on this one. I'm very skeptical, it's not the ideal set up for snow in NC. One big issue I have is HP over the NE is not there, so cold air at the surface and lowest levels will be hard to come by, especially if more moisture is backed into Central NC.  I'd love to be wrong though. :unsure:

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

 

As you may have guessed, the 16th member of the EPS was my favorite. 

 

I like this one:

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017120400_138_487_215_m15.thumb.png.70d0cb36c6ea2f01646d5539f6007e44.png

 

Maybe dumb question, but is there a view where you can see all members at once?  I see how to pick them individually, but viewing all of them simultaneously wasn't intuitive to me.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, FLweather said:

Agree. Dewpoints have been trending colder near VA/NC border.  Also back towards Charlotte Greensboro.  Since 6z. Really looking at the dewpoints the 38 isotherm has been near Greenville Pittsboro. So any snow that does fall will be back in the Piedmont. Snow will develop as evaporative cooling.  Key is getting moisture back into the cool boundary layer with out the caa from a HP.  Thought it was kind of interesting that the 12z was showing a Lee trough. 

For those back across ga, assuming there is adequate precip/rates, there should be at least some snow mixing in with a possible full changeover based on full soundings and dewpoints....as far south as even south central georgia..  Yes surface temps are a problem but gfs is showing surface dewpoints in the low to mid 20s...across north ga..and upper 20s/low 30s over central ga... although not terribly low with temps in the upper 30s to near 40....combined with freezing levels that are low and wetbulb zero heights that are very low...(only a few hundred feet off the ground)..means that if in all likeyhood there should be some flakes mixed in with the rain  at a bare minimum on the back edge of that precip shield. If it's more than just sprinkles..i would think a full changeover is very possible. It helps a lot that the precip comes in at the right time of day..if it's so slow it comes in later in the day it will be hard pressed to see a full changeover...although it still wouldn't surprise me if it does if the precip is steady  enough. The actual best chance of that happening might very well be the columbus to macon to augusta corridor....where the best precip and cold air overlap. 

 

here is a sounding for SOUTH of macon from the 0z gfs valid for 15z friday. If there is enough precip, surface temps will drop to the 33 to 35 range...and although accumulations...aside from at best a quick dusting on the grass...aren't going to happen with those temps, i don't think many would complain since any flakes at all...especially this far south, is a pretty big bonus this time of year. 

Of course...this is all assuming there is actual precip..and not dry like the 06z gfs  or that it doesn't trend so far north it warms up aloft.  

SFC 1006    92   2.2   1.7  97  0.4   2.0 308   6 274.9 275.6 274.8 286.5  4.31
  1 1000   139   2.2   0.4  88  1.8   1.4 311  10 275.3 276.0 274.6 286.0  3.93
  2  950   551  -0.9  -1.4  96  0.5  -1.1 328  17 276.3 276.9 274.7 286.2  3.63
  3  900   983  -1.9  -2.3  97  0.5  -2.0 330  17 279.6 280.2 276.4 289.5  3.58
  4  850  1437  -2.4  -2.7  98  0.3  -2.6 288  14 283.6 284.2 278.6 294.0  3.68
  5  800  1919  -1.8  -2.0  98  0.2  -1.9 244  25 289.2 289.9 281.8 301.1  4.11
  6  750  2433  -1.9  -2.1  99  0.2  -2.0 236  38 294.5 295.3 284.3 307.3  4.37
  7  700  2981  -3.0  -3.2  99  0.1  -3.1 236  47 299.1 299.9 286.1 312.1  4.32
  8  650  3566  -5.0  -5.1  99  0.1  -5.1 233  56 303.3 304.0 287.3 315.5  4.01
  9  600  4193  -7.4  -7.5  99  0.1  -7.5 224  64 307.6 308.2 288.3 318.9  3.62
 10  550  4867 -10.5 -10.7  99  0.1 -10.6 214  75 311.6 312.2 289.2 321.5  3.09
 11  500  5596 -14.5 -14.7  99  0.1 -14.6 216  85 315.3 315.8 289.8 323.3  2.45
 12  450  6386 -20.0 -20.3  98  0.2 -20.1 224  91 318.1 318.4 289.9 323.8  1.70
 13  400  7249 -26.1 -28.3  82  2.2 -26.5 231  98 321.1 321.2 290.0 324.3  0.93
22 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

 

As you may have guessed, the 16th member of the EPS was my favorite. 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017120400_129_480_215_m16.png

:wub: mine too. 

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SteveVa

SteveVa

Posted
Posted

I really want to toss the possible Friday-Saturday event for my area but recent model runs are preventing me from doing so. I'm still very skeptical considering the setup...no HP to our north, would have to rely on evap cooling to get us to 32, wave looks too flat. 

But...00z EPS has a mean snow depth of 1.5" Sat morning for ORF. I'm sure the mean is skewed by a couple of unrealistic big dogs though. Let's just get some flakes in the air and I'll be happy. Already miles ahead compared to last year.

 

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

I really want to toss the possible Friday-Saturday event for my area but recent model runs are preventing me from doing so. I'm still very skeptical considering the setup...no HP to our north, would have to rely on evap cooling to get us to 32, wave looks too flat. 

But...00z EPS has a mean snow depth of 1.5" Sat morning for ORF. I'm sure the mean is skewed by a couple of unrealistic big dogs though. Let's just get some flakes in the air and I'll be happy. Already miles ahead compared to last year.

 

For those folks in the far northwest, your only hope is for an amped up system. I would not write this off just yet.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

What gets my attention more than anything else is the fact that practically every member has at least some snow outside of the mountains.For this time of year, that is very impressive.

Very true. Could change but as of now, looks interesting at least. Good system to gather the tracking skills again.

 

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted

Well one thing I have to state is that the PNA ridging keeps trending stronger and stronger and also we're seeing a slowing/more positively based trough.  

 

Thusly, thus could allow for more digging further south and west.  Initially in the shorter term later this week...the arctic airmass could get a little better established with the anafrontal moisture transport which MIGHT allow for better chances of changing over or mixing on Friday.   (In fact, KCHS mentioned this in their AFD this morning about monitoring this possibility.)

 

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