tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z GFS coming in stronger with the SW low and thus further north again. Enjoy the ride! A couple of things it appears at 500mb. 1 there is a closed vort in northeast MN and 2, the vort is more consolidated in the southwest without secondary interactions right on its tail. The interaction between these two items are helping to shift the entire setup a bit more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: It really warms from there...it's snow from Kansas to PA Sure does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Apps runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Still an entire week to go. The models will be all over the place until next THursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: A couple of things it appears at 500mb. 1 there is a closed vort in northeast MN and 2, the vort is more consolidated in the southwest without secondary interactions right on its tail. The interaction between these two items are helping to shift the entire setup a bit more north. No just phased into with the polar jet too early while it was still over the SW. That basically means warm air floods in ahead, and colder air behind. You want the cold air to follow behind the northern wave as it passes around the PV rather than it diving into the SW low and picking it up. It's quite a jump from previous couple of runs. You want to see a stout SW low but not phase with the polar jet energy - that has to pass by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Won't have to worry about a cold rain with that run. 60s around ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 CMC is snow from Oklahoma to PA. 06z Para is still suppressed, but fringe wintry precip on the NW side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: CMC is snow from Oklahoma to PA. 06z Para is still suppressed, but fringe wintry precip on the NW side Where did you did it so early? Only out to 42 on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Where did you did it so early? Only out to 42 on TTStormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, NorthGaWinter said: Where did you did it so early? Only out to 42 on TT http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ He's aware of TT he was asking pack how the 12z run was already done. SV is faster than TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 CMC and GFS almost have the same track. Something sampled somewhere caused this dramatic change. Don't know where though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Well based on GFS at hour 186, Atlanta gets in a small backend light snow band as the cold air filters in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: He's aware of TT he was asking pack how the 12z run was already done. SV is faster than TT Okay sorry just trying to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, Wow said: No just phased into with the polar jet too early while it was still over the SW. That basically means warm air floods in ahead, and colder air behind. You want the cold air to follow behind the northern wave as it passes around the PV rather than it diving into the SW low and picking it up. It's quite a jump from previous couple of runs. You want to see a stout SW low but not phase with the polar jet energy - that has to pass by. I hope everyone tracking this storm sees and understands what your saying. It's real simple and you have done a awesome job explaining our outcome really depends on what happens with the ns energy from the polar jet. We need it to phase in with lake cutter lp coming t h rough Sunday into Monday after it establishes itself as our 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Well based on GFS at hour 186, Atlanta gets in a small backend light snow band as the cold air filters in. I can count on one hand how many times cold chasing moisture works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 UKMET still bringing it,even colder at 120-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, weatherfide said: I can count on one hand how many times cold chasing moisture works out. It seems like a secondary wave sort of develops on the backend after the main overrunning precip. is over. This isn't your typical FROPA that originates from a Great Lakes low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 16 minutes ago, Wow said: No just phased into with the polar jet too early while it was still over the SW. That basically means warm air floods in ahead, and colder air behind. You want the cold air to follow behind the northern wave as it passes around the PV rather than it diving into the SW low and picking it up. It's quite a jump from previous couple of runs. You want to see a stout SW low but not phase with the polar jet energy - that has to pass by. Thanks, I think I was trying to say something similar, but I am sure it was poorly worded (or maybe i am just wrong, wouldn't be the first time). It just looked to me like the northern stream piece closed off, which didn't let the northern jet swing through, and slowed it down creating the interaction with the southern stream. I definitely agree it was a lot different at 500 than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Still a long way to go. Have to see if this is a trend or just a bad run. The models have also lost storms just to bring them back 3 days beforehand, too. Just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: UKMET still bringing it,even colder at 120-144 Para still suppressed. We have some time. It's not Tuesday. See what GEFS says. We lost the HP which is concerning. But this isn't rather last chapter of this book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 On a side note, the indices look a little better today: AO - Looks to go strongly negative (GREAT) NAO - Looks to go and stay negative (GOOD) PNA - Stays negative and even strongly negative (BAD) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml EPO - Stays negative but does head towards neutral in the LR (at least GOOD early) ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: UKMET still bringing it,even colder at 120-144 Yeah, it continues to look the coldest out front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Para still suppressed. We have some time. It's not Tuesday. See what GEFS says. We lost the HP which is concerning. But this isn't rather last chapter of this book. UKMET runs a close 2nd when it comes to models for me behind the Euro.Did very well on Matthew in October too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: Yeah, it continues to look the coldest out front Looks much better then GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 UKMET is cold but amp the system too much and it gets pushed out like grass clippings. It's the amp phase that's killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 CMC ens mean is a nice winter storm for the N-GA to GSP up through NC (CLT to RDU) give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Well at least we didn't start a storm thread! Trends look really bad now and you know the saying "the trend is NOT your friend" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 11 minutes ago, MichaelJ said: Well at least we didn't start a storm thread! Trends look really bad now and you know the saying "the trend is NOT your friend" Yeah, a storm thread at this point would have been an embarrassment. Still have time on our side however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, MichaelJ said: Well at least we didn't start a storm thread! Trends look really bad now and you know the saying "the trend is NOT your friend" While the pattern is not really all that great for a big winter storm, it's still close enough for small variations to make a big difference. Something like a shortwave not being sampled well or a model amping up one piece of energy vs. another can make huge differences at these leads. My gut feeling is that we'll get some sort of Miller Bish look. I doubt we see a big wound up storm heading toward the Lakes. On the other hand, this nice suppressed overruning look that we search for every year that never pans out may be difficult to come by also. Still plenty of options legitimately on the table at this point. But my instinct tells me that more liquid is likely to fall than frozen for all but the upper portions of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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