ILMRoss Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, WidreMann said: At this point, I just want to see a flurry. It's early December after a warm year. My expectations are low. Would be a shame to go through this chilly period that's been so heavily advertised with nary a token flake. As a classmate pointed out, the new EPS is a relatively *great* look for the MA and NE. It's probably in our best interest to establish a snow pack there so that the next push of cold air in this pattern doesn't get modified as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 3m3 minutes ago 30 of 50 EPS members show at least some snow at RDU in the 12/8-10 time frame. 10 2 inches or more per the EPS literal output. Moral of story, some wintry precip is possible most likely Friday. But as of now, I think boundary layer warmth will prevent this from being a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Banking on the fact Euro and it’s EPS members are in their wheelhouse range, mid range ftw. Would make it interesting. I trust it more than the gfs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Nice warm up ahead of the cold front!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Ukie is also pushing precip much further inland starting at hour 114 through 138. Close to the Euro and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Nice warm up ahead of the cold front!! Oh you're funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 CPC 8-14 day forecast/probabilities. Cold and dry: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 27 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie is also pushing precip much further inland starting at hour 114 through 138. Close to the Euro and EPS. Yep, and much much slower then the GFS and even the Euro. The EPS has been trending slower each run though. HP settling in over the east before low pressure moves in. GFS is a full 24 hours slower. EPS is in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Got to be realistic fellas, snow outside the mtns this time of year, though possible, is very unlikely. I hope no one is getting their hopes up too high. I'm just hoping we get colder, the 60s-70s we've had the last couple weeks are old. Nov ended up above normal for GSP and Dec starting way above. Need that pattern change to actually happen, seems like it's always 6-10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 gfs showing a mix for sc/nc friday this run. still think temps will be too warm and refuse to get my hopes up unless i see it falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Interesting trends with the GFS...slower with southern piece of energy. I would think slower would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gfs showing a mix for sc/nc friday this run. still think temps will be too warm and refuse to get my hopes up unless i see it falling from the sky. Yep...height of precip and middle of the day. Need this falling after midnight to have any shot of token flakes. Then again, we will be asleep and wont see it anyways.... Look at that gradient...would think warm waters really could ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 20 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Got to be realistic fellas, snow outside the mtns this time of year, though possible, is very unlikely. I hope no one is getting their hopes up too high. I'm just hoping we get colder, the 60s-70s we've had the last couple weeks are old. Nov ended up above normal for GSP and Dec starting way above. Need that pattern change to actually happen, seems like it's always 6-10 days out. Man I’ll tell you. I am in a freaking rock and a hard place between here and the MA thread. No coverage at all for SW VA folks. I do agree tho anywhere south of I-40 you would need some darn good rates. Meanwhile, I’ve been pretty darn cold up here maybe the last 7 days during the nighttime hours. I truly believe the gfs will continue to take baby steps toward the Euro and the h5 look will continue to progress in a positive fashion, which naturally in turn will allow some folks to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: Interesting trends with the GFS...slower with southern piece of energy. I would think slower would be better. Slower would most definitely be better in this instance for sure brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 For what it's worth, the NAM is a little colder with the initial push of low level cold than the GFS. As we discussed last year, the NAM can be looked at as a viable option for hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: For what it's worth, the NAM is a little colder with the initial push of low level cold than the GFS. As we discussed last year, the NAM can be looked at as a viable option for hour 84. If we can have a cold/cloudless Thursday night/Friday morning, then build in the clouds and precip, I feel good someone on the northern/western fringe of the precip shield could get a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: If we can have a cold/cloudless Thursday night/Friday morning, then build in the clouds and precip, I feel good someone on the northern/western fringe of the precip shield could get a nice surprise. Yep, as others have stated not going to get excited (for anybody) until the low level temps get modeled colder. All we can do is hope and wait for the next runs. On another note; the models continue to stink. The LR depiction on the 18z GFS is totally different than the 12z. The latest run would have a SE ridge pushing us into 70s by day 15. Very la nina like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Yeah, LR GFS is getting kind of awful. It's not just the 18z, though the 18z is particularly bad. We retain a -AO, but the NAO is neutral and we lose our western NA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 44 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yep, as others have stated not going to get excited (for anybody) until the low level temps get modeled colder. All we can do is hope and wait for the next runs. On another note; the models continue to stink. The LR depiction on the 18z GFS is totally different than the 12z. The latest run would have a SE ridge pushing us into 70s by day 15. Very la nina like... Can't have sustained cold forever! If we don't score before Christmas, I think we won't score at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 LR GFS says "Let the dumpster fire begin" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 SE ridge is there but heights are low S of Greenland so its a squeeze through pattern which can pay off with overrunning waves. Still too early obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 35 minutes ago, WarmNose said: LR GFS says "Let the dumpster fire begin" Ignore it for now.... The LR GFS is pittiful. Went from 20's to 70's. Yeah right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: Man I’ll tell you. I am in a freaking rock and a hard place between here and the MA thread. No coverage at all for SW VA folks. I do agree tho anywhere south of I-40 you would need some darn good rates. Meanwhile, I’ve been pretty darn cold up here maybe the last 7 days during the nighttime hours. I truly believe the gfs will continue to take baby steps toward the Euro and the h5 look will continue to progress in a positive fashion, which naturally in turn will allow some folks to cash in. (Off Topic) Those who live in SWVA have to pick whichever forum region they are closest to. A good solution would be to divide the Tennessee Valley and Southeast forums along the Eastern Continental Divide. The Mid-Atlantic and Southeast forums could be divided along the James River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 hours ago, JoshM said: Man, that map is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 For the month of November. RDU came in -2.9 PTI, GBORO came in - .9 Going to wind up Below Normal again at both locations for December imo, despite getting off to AN start just like we did in November. Enjoy, good luck and don't let the gfs play you like a yo yo good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Day 10 EPS 850 temp anomaly. This is a pretty look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Day 10 EPS 850 temp anomaly. This is a pretty look. Beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Day 10 EPS 850 temp anomaly. This is a pretty look. There's something that you don't see every day. Cold in the east in winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GFS'd tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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