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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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2 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

06z GFS looks wetter and a touch faster.

Right now the odds are not great that this produces (for next weekend). RAH stated last night there would be a lack of a high pressure to our north (...GL low). Even so, it looks close and we can hope the models start showing a more favorable setup in the next day or so. 

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Next 24 to 48 hours will play a huge impact on outcome of next weeks potential storm.  It's happening now ATM. If you look via satellite the storminess across MT WY ID NV UT is next weeks front. To lay the cold foundation aloft and surface too. 

Where the frontal trough sets up aloft and surface will be the baroclinic zone after initial passage.  Moisture will pool from TX GOM to FL. But where? How far does the cold actually push?

The real question is how much Northern Stream  dives down to undercut cut the building ridge aloft out west.  Does it close or does it open?!. If it closes then yeah potential for any snow is out of the question.  If it closes than that's a Rex block with the closed high and low. 

The second question is how much northern stream energy dives down.  If it's not closed does it stay condensed or does it shear open? IMO that's the huge difference among the GFS/Euro. 

Third main question would be timing issues.  If the 500mb energy is condensed instead of sheared.  How will it react to 2 strong shortwave?

Fourth main question would be timing issues too.  What if the 500mb energy is condensed across TX with 2 shortwave diving down? How far apart? What kind of phasing could occur?

Expect some more model changes in the next 24-48 hours.  But if anything is locked onto won't be till 24-36 from now. 

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From RAH this morning:

The pattern beyond the next arctic front appears to continue to be a
colder than normal one, with the reloading of the eastern U.S.
trough again in the mid December time frame. The cold will become
the main theme as 2017 ends, with 15-20 degree below normal
temperature departures possible in the 8-14 day period. This would
yield highs in the 30s and lows in the teens for many areas.
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7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Wow...impressive.  To bad 2m’s aren’t already cold prior.   Atleast a trend towards a coastal is growing.

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

Yeah, it's sad that for whatever reason, the mega-cold does not get here after the frontal passage, cause as stated, it's looking like moisture won't be a problem. Hoping for colder trends!

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23 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yep...just showing you how great today is.  Hopefully this keeps up, the nose bleed dry cold will get old quickly.  

That will be a great contrast this time next weekend.  A huge difference.  60s today here to highs in the 20s this time next week. Reminds me of years past December's where we would have 70 degrees one day and snow the next.

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

I think temps are going to be way more of an issue than moisture, but when is it not! :(

Always down here.  

Really a shame, this would probably be a realistic snow/ice threat if it was Jan 8th.

Coastal with -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and we rain.  

500h_anom.na.png

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