No snow for you Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 40 minutes ago, JoshM said: May be fantasy range, but GFS has been consistent with some kind of winter fun around the 15th Crap I have to be in DC on the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belakay Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that by this time next week if all goes well we could be there tracking a legit threat. Even though it's still two weeks out, I sure hope so. Haven't seen snow here in Augusta, GA in December since 2010, and haven't seen more than an inch in almost 4 years! I'm snow deprived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 I hope this year doesnt bust like Late Feb 2015 or Jan 2017 snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: I hope this year doesnt bust like Late Feb 2015 or Jan 2017 snows Getting lows in the 20s would be a win, after the last 3 dumpster fire winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 I'm getting interested in the possible rain to snow scenario following the front on Wednesday. We rarely (pretty much never) score with fropas but verbatim 12z Euro OP has about 1-2" for SE VA. Of course the ground is warm and temps would never drop under 32 so I'm not looking at any accum realistically. Some mood flakes could fly though Not putting much stock into it but certainly something to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Any kind of snowfall during the holiday season is great down here. Decembers have been awful for several years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Wow said: Any kind of snowfall during the holiday season is great down here. Decembers have been awful for several years now. I agree Wow. Anything before Christmas is just playing with early house money in these parts (outside the mtns) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 hours ago, No snow for you said: Crap I have to be in DC on the 15th Awesome. You'll prolly be the only one of us to see snow, then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Snow in Austin TX and Mexico next Friday, per 0z run! Looks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Snow in Austin TX and Mexico next Friday, per 0z run! Looks cold CMC has a weak SE coastal low after the front with light snow in central NC to Deleware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just now, griteater said: CMC has a weak coastal low after the front with light snow in central NC to Deleware There's a lot of " noise" in the gulf on Friday. We will have to see if something is being sniffed out. Wouldn't take much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 lol at the gfs here comes the north pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Dec 15th storm still there on GFS, would be interesting to see something verify all the way from fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: lol at the gfs here comes the north pole It's been in Europe and Asia the past 3 winters, bout time it paid us a visit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 the last frame is one of those looks youll only ever see at 384... 1042 up top, no gl low, and copious moisture flowing in from the gulf and not only that but phasing in texas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 We got serious cold in-coming for mid December folks. Really long running cold stuff for this time of year per current modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 25 minutes ago, CaryWx said: We got serious cold in-coming for mid December folks. Really long running cold stuff for this time of year per current modeling It's gotta help some that it's coming in around the time of the winter solstice and shortest days of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 The models are flip-flopping on the structure of the PV over southern Canada and the ridging in the Atlantic, as well as short-waves over west-central NA. 12z has a trough snaking westward into the central mountains, while 00z has nothing of the sort and instead has sheared out pieces of energy rolling down the western edge of the trough. Regardless of the flip-flopping, it seems clear that we will have ridging along the Pacific coast, and some sort of blocking in the Atlantic, that will probably reconfigure itself over the course of this cold spell. We're also going to have repeated waves of cold air coming from Canada. If any short-wave or trough comes through at the right time, we could probably eke out a winter storm. At this range, it's impossible to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 6z GFS pools GOM moisture after the frontal passage on the 5th. Waves of LP form along the trough. 6z brings light precip further west to roughly I85 I65 corridor. 850s cold enough to support snow from AL to NC along and south of the 85/65 corridor. But due to the SW flow ahead of another shortwave diving down(great lakes clipper)the lowest 4000 feet too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, FLweather said: 6z GFS pools GOM moisture after the frontal passage on the 5th. Waves of LP form along the trough. 6z brings light precip further west to roughly I85 I65 corridor. 850s cold enough to support snow from AL to NC along and south of the 85/65 corridor. But due to the SW flow ahead of another shortwave diving down(great lakes clipper)the lowest 4000 feet too warm. Models are really all over the place. Even under day seven we're getting large jumps from one option to another. Models have higher amounts of issues during patter changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 December 15th appears to be the time frame to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Where's the excitement after the 06z? Come on folks! At 144 there's a low in the Gulf and legit cold air in the South! In early December ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 hours ago, FLweather said: 6z GFS pools GOM moisture after the frontal passage on the 5th. Waves of LP form along the trough. 6z brings light precip further west to roughly I85 I65 corridor. 850s cold enough to support snow from AL to NC along and south of the 85/65 corridor. But due to the SW flow ahead of another shortwave diving down(great lakes clipper)the lowest 4000 feet too warm. Was just looking at that...we have enough trouble with lower level temps in mid January. Lakes lows are going to inhibit anything in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 29 minutes ago, packbacker said: Was just looking at that...we have enough trouble with lower level temps in mid January. Lakes lows are going to inhibit anything in Dec. Pack, I think even with the setup for at least you and I, its def worth watching. Going to have some serious cold incoming. I am highly excited and I feel like I’m back up living in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 12z -Tall western ridge- check 12Z- Cold check 12z- Storms- ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 42 minutes ago, Shack said: Where's the excitement after the 06z? Come on folks! At 144 there's a low in the Gulf and legit cold air in the South! In early December ! The number of ensemble members with the SE coastal low in that timeframe increased on the 06 GFS Ens run In the long range, the ensembles show the western ridging hanging in there and reaching more poleward in time...suggesting that the below normal temperatures would continue to be favored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 48 minutes ago, Shack said: Where's the excitement after the 06z? Come on folks! At 144 there's a low in the Gulf and legit cold air in the South! In early December ! I don't think the low is showing on the Euro!? That's a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 MJO forecast start looking better towards mid Dec. feel like end of the month into January will be our best shot at a winter storm. With some luck we could get a piece of northern stream energy dive south and give us a nice clipper beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 GEFS maintaining favorable look throughout the run, -AO looks pretty stable for now. Below avg December looks likely. Odds are increased this winter for a big east coast event without a doubt just gotta stay patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: I don't think the low is showing on the Euro!? That's a concern It shows on the 12z. Not strong, but a real low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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