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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that by this time next week if all goes well we could be there tracking a legit threat.

Even though it's still two weeks out, I sure hope so. Haven't seen snow here in Augusta, GA in December since 2010, and haven't seen more than an inch in almost 4 years! I'm snow deprived.

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I'm getting interested in the possible rain to snow scenario following the front on Wednesday. We rarely (pretty much never) score with fropas but verbatim 12z Euro OP has about 1-2" for SE VA. Of course the ground is warm and temps would never drop under 32 so I'm not looking at any accum realistically. Some mood flakes could fly though :) 

Not putting much stock into it but certainly something to watch...

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1 hour ago, Wow said:

Any kind of snowfall during the holiday season is great down here.  Decembers have been awful for several years now.

I agree Wow.  Anything before Christmas is just playing with early house money in these parts (outside the mtns)

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The models are flip-flopping on the structure of the PV over southern Canada and the ridging in the Atlantic, as well as short-waves over west-central NA. 12z has a trough snaking westward into the central mountains, while 00z has nothing of the sort and instead has sheared out pieces of energy rolling down the western edge of the trough.

Regardless of the flip-flopping, it seems clear that we will have ridging along the Pacific coast, and some sort of blocking in the Atlantic, that will probably reconfigure itself over the course of this cold spell. We're also going to have repeated waves of cold air coming from Canada. If any short-wave or trough comes through at the right time, we could probably eke out a winter storm. At this range, it's impossible to tell.

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6z GFS  pools GOM moisture after the frontal passage on the 5th. Waves of LP form along the trough.  6z brings light precip further west to roughly I85 I65 corridor.  850s cold enough to support snow from AL to NC along and south of the 85/65 corridor. But due to the SW flow ahead of another shortwave diving down(great lakes clipper)the lowest 4000 feet too warm. 

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14 minutes ago, FLweather said:

6z GFS  pools GOM moisture after the frontal passage on the 5th. Waves of LP form along the trough.  6z brings light precip further west to roughly I85 I65 corridor.  850s cold enough to support snow from AL to NC along and south of the 85/65 corridor. But due to the SW flow ahead of another shortwave diving down(great lakes clipper)the lowest 4000 feet too warm. 

Models are really all over the place. Even under day seven we're getting large jumps from one option to another. Models have higher amounts of issues during patter changes.   

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2 hours ago, FLweather said:

6z GFS  pools GOM moisture after the frontal passage on the 5th. Waves of LP form along the trough.  6z brings light precip further west to roughly I85 I65 corridor.  850s cold enough to support snow from AL to NC along and south of the 85/65 corridor. But due to the SW flow ahead of another shortwave diving down(great lakes clipper)the lowest 4000 feet too warm. 

Was just looking at that...we have enough trouble with lower level temps in mid January.   Lakes lows are going to inhibit anything in Dec.  

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29 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Was just looking at that...we have enough trouble with lower level temps in mid January.   Lakes lows are going to inhibit anything in Dec.  

Pack, I think even with the setup for at least you and I, its def worth watching. Going to have some serious cold incoming. I am highly excited and I feel like I’m back up living in the northeast. 

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42 minutes ago, Shack said:

Where's the excitement after the 06z?  Come on folks!  At 144 there's a low in the Gulf and legit cold air in the South! In early December !

The number of ensemble members with the SE coastal low in that timeframe increased on the 06 GFS Ens run

In the long range, the ensembles show the western ridging hanging in there and reaching more poleward in time...suggesting that the below normal temperatures would continue to be favored

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MJO forecast start looking better towards mid Dec. feel like end of the month into January will be our best shot at a winter storm. With some luck we could get a piece of northern stream energy dive south and give us a nice clipper beforehand. 

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