mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Here goes ColdRain's 1040hp in a favorable position....just need a wave now. That looks hideous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: GFS run looks good. Surprised how dead it is in here with the pattern we have setting up. People are scared to jinx it I guess!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 00/01 keeps being brought up as a good analog for this winter...that winter sure did suck snowfall wise, Raleigh had the epic bust in early Dec and then virtually nothing after that. Would be funny if we get a cold/dry winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That looks hideous! Oh no...HP slides out to sea. Some things never change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Oh no...HP slides out to sea. Some things never change... Yeah, imagine that! Coldest air in the world, ridge bridge, blockbuster pattern, haven't seen this look in 10 years, but none of that magical cold air is around for a storm?!! Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Oh no...HP slides out to sea. Some things never change... But, but , but, the blocking ! Its historical, it won't let the highs slide out to sea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: But, but , but, the blocking ! Its historical, it won't let the highs slide out to sea! Blocking is for suckers...LOL. Another chance day 14 though...no way this one slides out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Blocking is for suckers...LOL. Another chance day 14 though...no way this one slides out to sea See the gap through the Ohio valley, it'll shoot the gap behind the departing high and get brutally cold behind it, after the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, imagine that! Coldest air in the world, ridge bridge, blockbuster pattern, haven't seen this look in 10 years, but none of that magical cold air is around for a storm?!! Classic 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: But, but , but, the blocking ! Its historical, it won't let the highs slide out to sea! 18 hours ago, SimeonNC said: a N Atlantic ridge is still good right? 13 hours ago, griteater said: It tends to lead to a pattern of storm>cold>warm>storm. It's preferred to have low pressure / troughing off the NE coast so that sfc highs don't quickly slip off said NE coast. The official AmericanWx data recorder shows that any notion of a blockbuster, historical, perfect pattern isn't true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 18 minutes ago, griteater said: The official AmericanWx data recorder shows that any notion of a blockbuster, historical, perfect pattern isn't true Although we've had the -EPO on our side for several years, we've also had that WAR for several years. Highs scoot out quick, so it's amazing we've gotten the few storms that we have (but alot of sleet too). Probably again leaning on pure luck timing with this great pattern. Honestly it seems this pattern is really only what we've seen for several years, only in December. Would love to at some point see nothing but blues off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 WAR = Warm Air Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 The canadian actually has some light snow next Friday with a clipper delivering more arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Anybody have the Euro snow maps. At home and don't have the links. MA folks saying it's looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Anybody have the Euro snow maps. At home and don't have the links. MA folks saying it's looking interesting. and more coming well its a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, Disco-lemonade said: and more coming Thanks! We can work with that at this time range. I would gladly take a light snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 A shortwave that dives south into the eastern trough immediately following the arctic frontal passage is the scenario that seems to have the most 'promise' in looking at the ensemble scenarios. The Euro doesn't quite kick up a storm until it's off the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: A shortwave that dives south into the eastern trough immediately following the arctic frontal passage is the scenario that seems to have the most 'promise' in looking at the ensemble scenarios. The Euro doesn't quite kick up a storm until it's off the NC coast Which seems to be what the canadian was showing. People need to manage their expectations. I'll be happy with window dressing showers before NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 On 11/23/2017 at 11:08 AM, NC_hailstorm said: CMC overtakes the GFS for 3rd now at day 5 and almost tied at day 6.GFS is just terrible beyond 5 days I personally don't even look at it but not terrible inside 5.Euro and Ukie still up top with the Ukie closing a bit lately.Check out day 5 and 6. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html All the models been scoring low the last 7 days or so at Day 6.CMC continues to improve,solidly in 3rd and is the hot one at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Euro on board for a light event. Anything now is a bonus. Seems all the models have a strong storm signal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 eps is bone chilling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 EPS members definitely trolling the area with light snow from the front and the late blooming wave through day 10. Control run has light snow across the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Definitely getting a tad more interesting 7-9 on the EPS for the late bloomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: The CLT snowhole strikes again lol It'll fill in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: All the models been scoring low the last 7 days or so at Day 6.CMC continues to improve,solidly in 3rd and is the hot one at the moment. Because the flow has been on steroids fast. La Nina setups in the cold season always seem to miss how fast and progressive things really are...so I am always apprehensive in regards to depictions of blocking episodes in the extended...until it gets closer to SR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 23 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: The CLT snowhole strikes again lol Perhaps because most of that snow is coming from clipper action? CLT is absolutely shielded by the mountains from anything from a clipper IMO. I think the mountains will do real well in December due to the clipper energy swirling around the PV. Maybe have to take a trip up to Boone and get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 25 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: Because the flow has been on steroids fast. La Nina setups in the cold season always seem to miss how fast and progressive things really are...so I am always apprehensive in regards to depictions of blocking episodes in the extended...until it gets closer to SR. Good to see you posting sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 May be fantasy range, but GFS has been consistent with some kind of winter fun around the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I see that the long range 18z GFS is bringing the return of Feb 1899. Mercy that's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 23 minutes ago, Wow said: I see that the long range 18z GFS is bringing the return of Feb 1899. Mercy that's cold. In terms of sustained cold thru the full run, I thought it was one of the more impressive model runs we've seen in a long time. Just one run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 37 minutes ago, JoshM said: May be fantasy range, but GFS has been consistent with some kind of winter fun around the 15th Miller B , FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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