rjtysinger Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Hi all, I can see the changes as far as temperature is concerned, but what is going to be different in regards to precipitation? We have been locked in to dry weather for about 6 months it seems. Not doubting , just trying to learn! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Have a feeling once the 18z GFS comes out their will be a silent noise on this board... "crickets" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 This pattern change coming up in early December with constant high pressures dropping down south seems too good to be true. Do you guys think this will verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, GlaringSun said: This pattern change coming up in early December with constant high pressures dropping down south seems too good to be true. Do you guys think this will verify? NOAA CPC says... 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 08 - 14 2017 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS ESTABLISHED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING WEEK-2. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVE WITH TIME AS FORECAST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PROMINENT OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DURING EARLY DECEMBER. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DURING WEEK-2 IS BASED ON TELECONNECTIONS UPON THIS LARGE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER, ALONG WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WHERE STATISTICAL TOOLS HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, griteater said: GFS Ens members continue to show a smorgasbord of wintry threats intermingled with rainy ones in the extended range Grit, would you say the GEFS shows....a plethora of wintry threats? I'm gonna back away from stalking this pattern. I think I spooked it. My greenland block is fading away, the euro ensembles have muted the western ridge a bit on the last run, and it's early December (and I have a bow and arrow, none of this makes sense!). Gotta just let it burn and see where we are next week. Somebody holler when there something worthy of a PBP threat. Those are fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Niner- On the PAC side it could just be extended range noise. The Aleutian Low anomaly was stronger that run. They play together and both are important. But yeah, more N Atlantic ridging and less true -NAO signal now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 18z GFS has a healthier looking western ridge than the 12z at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 12/28/2016 at 9:03 AM, bhamwx205 said: it's also not really a step back either. the eps suggests a reloading pattern . and if you look at the 2m temps it's below normal for the region especially the Carolinas until about day 15 . Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk I can’t find much wrong with that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 4 hours ago, SimeonNC said: a N Atlantic ridge is still good right? It tends to lead to a pattern of storm>cold>warm>storm. It's preferred to have low pressure / troughing off the NE coast so that sfc highs don't quickly slip off said NE coast. But that's still a fairly steep eastern U.S. trough, so just have to lean on timing to synch the cold and storm. 18z GFS Ens members weren't quite as good with the number of wintry threats, but still some in there. Tonight's Euro Weeklies maintain a -EPO/+PNA look thru Dec with western ridge and eastern U.S. trough....they look maybe even better in early Jan where the trough extends across much of the country....-AO throughout the run...more -NAO as the run goes out in time into Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Somebody bring home the pbp in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Somebody bring home the pbp in a bit Looks like some solid rain next Wednesday, maybe changing to snow in mountains on backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 44 minutes ago, griteater said: It tends to lead to a pattern of storm>cold>warm>storm. It's preferred to have low pressure / troughing off the NE coast so that sfc highs don't quickly slip off said NE coast. But that's still a fairly steep eastern U.S. trough, so just have to lean on timing to synch the cold and storm. 18z GFS Ens members weren't quite as good with the number of wintry threats, but still some in there. Tonight's Euro Weeklies maintain a -EPO/+PNA look thru Dec with western ridge and eastern U.S. trough....they look maybe even better in early Jan where the trough extends across much of the country....-AO throughout the run...more -NAO as the run goes out in time into Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 At the 8th, the air doesn't looks as cold as 18z, but also dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: At the 8th, the air doesn't looks as cold as 18z, but also dry I thought it looked ominous....multiple waves diving down. Another one dropping down in KS/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Looks like some solid rain next Wednesday, maybe changing to snow in mountains on backside Few inches of beach snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 GFS pops a storm around 240 and it gets suppressed and OTS. Then the bottom drops out and temps plunge behind the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: GFS pops a storm around 240 and it gets suppressed and OTS. Then the bottom drops out and temps plunge behind the front That's some Vodka cold for early December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: That's some Vodka cold for early December! Start the thread for the day 11 storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Start the thread for the day 11 storm! Now you know when I start a thread, your backyard gets screwed, and I cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 All I want is a little virga in December and I'll call it a winter. Is that too much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Lol gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Would be an interesting gradient in the extended...GEFS very active during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I would love to see the storm depicted on the 6z GFS (shown by Iso above). That would put almost everybody on this board in the game to get some type of wintery precip. That would be a fun track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 8 hours ago, packbacker said: I thought it looked ominous....multiple waves diving down. Another one dropping down in KS/MS. 1 hour ago, Isopycnic said: Lol gfs... Very possible. I mentioned all cards on the table. Depends on how the ridge and southern energy act. Couple days ago alot of southern stream energy was undercutting and retrograding the ridge out west per models. No so much now. Unless something serious start showing around the 8-9th(the Miller a/b) then that will be rain. It's been several years. But my opinion can't compare to 09/10 & 14(14/15)!? One thing about it is... The models haven't a clue. After 150 + hours it's all Northern stream pattern. Possibly clipper after clipper till something gives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 The model runs are going to be back and forth past 5 days, especially with all the energy flying around. The main thing is the pattern looks great and the setup is there for some winter storms this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Uhm... Maybe someone a little more knowledgeable can get rid of my cause of concern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Ashe - looking at the Euro Ensemble, it has the cool down late next week, then a moderation / warmup, then another cool down. End of the Euro Op run there at 240 is the moderation...but there should be some reinforcements thereafter. Heck, who knows, this is way out there in time. It certainly looks cooler than normal over the first half of Dec, but we can't lock in an iceberg forecast here. Also, losing some of the Greenland blocking puts the full onus on the western ridge to deliver...so, it is a little riskier play now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 GFS run looks good. Surprised how dead it is in here with the pattern we have setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Here goes ColdRain's 1040hp in a favorable position....just need a wave now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: GFS run looks good. Surprised how dead it is in here with the pattern we have setting up. It really does look good! Its the little wiggles in the model runs and almost dis belief that it's looking this good. People are hoping for the best, but waiting on the pattern to crumble, befor it even starts. 12z GFS looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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