griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Day 7 forecast map from WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: Day 7 forecast map from WPC That's an overrunning setup. High is NW of the low pressure, precip riding up the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The cold air wasn't a problem 3-4 days ago. Now the extent of the cold air is the problem. Still a long way to go. GFS isn't excited about RDU based on the latest bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 This cold airmass is largely getting underestimated in my opinion.This is a bitter,dense,air mass that was only dislodged only by a fairly potent wave 1 and wave 2 heat flux pressing it south now.Not a run of the mill cold at all. MJO supports cold in the Midwest,east and the AO and NAO forecasted sharply negative now. The nightmare scenario would be someone getting stuck at 24 degrees with moderate rain which could happen if this dense airmass gets entrenched at the surface,depending on WAA and the low pressure track.Then you better hope you have a generator near by. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: This cold airmass is largely getting underestimated in my opinion.This is a bitter,dense,air mass that was only dislodged only by a fairly potent wave 1 and wave 2 heat flux pressing it south now.Not a run of the mill cold at all. MJO supports cold in the Midwest,east and the AO and NAO forecasted sharply negative now. The nightmare scenario would be someone getting stuck at 24 degrees with moderate rain which could happen if this dense airmass gets entrenched at the surface,depending on WAA and the low pressure track.Then you better hope you have a generator near by. Just my opinion. It's also very dense and shallow. With most models not showing cad, have to be concerned about the Apps holding the cold air back, by 12-24 hours. Happens all the time, sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Upon looking at the GFS para, 0z, which is said to have verification along the lines of Euro, most should be excited! You said it was terrible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 ^ Good thoughts by all. Appreciate the write-up and agree Cold Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 That's a great explanation CR, thanks. I thought the blocking looked pretty good and was enough to give us that confluence, but it looks like all in all it's too far east to do the job. Dang Mutumbo. Lol at the long range. Take that Mutumbo!! Jordan in your face!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, WXinCanton said: You said it was terrible? It is, like all models, until they show what I want, then they are number 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ Good thoughts by all. Appreciate the write-up and agree Cold Rain Thanks sir...and you as well. I also meant to say that I think the 216 pattern is continued in the 240 panels. I think there would be some stability to this pattern, if it indeed set up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, Wow said: That's an overrunning setup. High is NW of the low pressure, precip riding up the arctic front. Should we be concerned about the high strength at this juncture? I mean a 1032, is not a blockbuster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The back of my mind too is the fact that models have been over emphasizing the SE ridge. Has that been the case? If that is true perhaps that could allow the cold to sink further into the SE more than currently modeled. Interesting set up, at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: That's a great explanation CR, thanks. I thought the blocking looked pretty good and was enough to give us that confluence, but it looks like all in all it's too far east to do the job. Dang Mutumbo. Lol at the long range. Take that Mutumbo!! Jordan in your face!! Thanks. You don't want the mechanism responsible for the confluence to escape so quickly. This is why we all too frequently see high pressure race off the NE coast. I don't think we really know what it's like to experience true, stable, west-based blocking, since we don't get -NAO winters anymore. It's so important to "anchor" the cold feed into our part of the world. Jon really likes the -EPO feature, and I understand that and agree with him. You HAVE to have a mechanism to deliver arctic cold to our side of the world. But you also need something to keep it in place. Otherwise, you get the cold shot, warm up, rain out, cold shot, warm up, rain out routine, which we see all the time these days. The thing you have to be concerned about with west-based blocking is suppression. IMO, that's something I can live with. The other way to lock in the cold is with a robust +PNA, which we have seen some of in the last few years. The thing you have to worry about here, though, is does it set up too far west or east (cutters vs. OTS storm tracks, if you get a storm at all). Hailstorm (good points, by the way), posted that the indexes were looking good. Hopefully, the trend continues there, along with some elevation of the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Brad P just tweeted an image that shows .25" liquid equivalent of snow/sleet/ice and most of western NC is 10% and RDU is 0%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Should we be concerned about the high strength at this juncture? I mean a 1032, is not a blockbuster! You should always be concerned about the strength of the high! On that map, its center is too far west. However, you see the tendency for higher pressure over the northern tier, which is good and which is infinitely better than the Lakes low. Changes at 500 could yield a better strength and better placement come game time. 10 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: The back of my mind too is the fact that models have been over emphasizing the SE ridge. Has that been the case? If that is true perhaps that could allow the cold to sink further into the SE more than currently modeled. Interesting set up, at the least. Very possible, particularly if we get a little better blocking than currently modeled or if the H5 features shuffle around just a little bit. We're really not very far away at all from a widespread big time winter storm. But, when you live in the SE, the line between the major league and a backyard wiffle ball tournament often is razor thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You should always be concerned about the strength of the high! On that map, its center is too far west. However, you see the tendency for higher pressure over the northern tier, which is good and which is infinitely better than the Lakes low. Changes at 500 could yield a better strength and better placement come game time. Very possible, particularly if we get a little better blocking than currently modeled or if the H5 features shuffle around just a little bit. We're really not very far away at all from a widespread big time winter storm. But, when you live in the SE, the line between the major league and a backyard wiffle ball tournament often is razor thin. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmOWsXDMwqM Yep. Very odd not dealing with a CAD situation. Almost no experience so I'm just along for the ride at this point. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 SW loosing latitude faster in the 12z than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 55 minutes ago, griteater said: Oh yeah, I always want to see the damming high. Ideally there's a dual high, one over the Midwest and another over the NE. On the image, the big polar trough that is centered north of the Great Lakes...ideally, that would be positioned a little more to the SE (even better would be a big blocking ridge to the north of it). In it's current position, the parent sfc high is stuck behind it in the Pacific NW and isn't able to move to the east in time ahead of the SW wave that kicks out Snowniner, for comparison, here's the Mar 1983 snow. Polar trough is better positioned over SE Canada and into the Northeast. Sfc high right behind it over Wisconsin. Storm wave is coming out of New Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: SW loosing latitude faster in the 12z than 06z. SW = southern wedge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 short wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 ^ Wow, thanks Grit. The PV is set up almost in Maine. Highs in much better position. Is the H location corresponding to where the PV is located or the orientation of the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: ^ Wow, thanks Grit. The PV is set up almost in Maine. Highs in much better position. Is the H location corresponding to where the PV is located or the orientation of the trough? Sfc high will be tucked in behind that polar trough / PV lobe / 50/50 low, whatever you want to call it, in the confluent flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 At hour 108 it looks like the high over SE Montana is a little stronger and there's a little more push of the cold air SE. But lets see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, FallsLake said: At hour 108 it looks like the high over SE Montana is a little stronger and there's a little more push of the cold air SE. But lets see where it goes from here. The two SW's almost phase. If they can phase, this will allow even colder air to flood south and hence cause pressure increases over the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12z GFS coming in stronger with the SW low and thus further north again. Enjoy the ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Significant system well north...it fits with this pattern really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Out to hour 132 and cold air is flooding into NC. 2m temps are in the 30s and dew points below freezing. Lets see what that low does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Out to hour 132 and cold air is flooding into NC. 2m temps are in the 30s and dew points below freezing. Lets see what that low does. It really warms from there...it's snow from Kansas to PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: Significant system well north...it fits with this pattern really Man it looks like the cold got in faster. But do you think this will cut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Phases too much into our southern wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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