NC_hailstorm Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 Euro dry as a bone today with the storm too far off the coast on day 5,too bad wouldn't mind seeing some rain.GFS didn't look great at day 4 either concerning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 Typical biases. Euro lacks with S/W energy. Gfs over does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 I'm just glad I'm not seeing a continuous strong PV over Greenland. This ain't last year's pattern (or the year before that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 57 minutes ago, Wow said: I'm just glad I'm not seeing a continuous strong PV over Greenland. This ain't last year's pattern (or the year before that). What did it look like last year? I don't have easy access to archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Here's last December: ... and 2015 .. and 2014 ... and 2013.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 What a god awful stretch of crap! Hope this years the streak breaker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What a god awful stretch of crap! Hope this years the streak breaker! 14/15 was a decent winter, with February '15 being about -10 F with multiple winter weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 22 minutes ago, WidreMann said: 14/15 was a decent winter, with February '15 being about -10 F with multiple winter weather events. Winter 13/14 was good as well for us but I didn't realize December was that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 I don't think I've had a >2" snowfall imby since Jan 13 !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Just now, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Winter 13/14 was good as well for us but I didn't realize December was that warm. The coolest December in the last 5 years has actually been December 2016, though by only 0.2 F (at RDU). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 I was only looking at Decembers of course, and doesn't portend to the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 6z still has magical mystery storm at about hour 360! Start the thread! CR, quit cyber Mondaying, and hook us up with some indicies eye candy, before they get ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 23 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Boom! +100000! what could possibly go wrong from here!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: +100000! what could possibly go wrong from here!?? Lol. Mother Nature: Hold my beer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 I really like the look of things headed into December. Keep that -AO and -NAO going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 So dealing with the indices, what is the optimal look? * I know a negative AO helps with cross polar flow. * The NAO helps block the NE (~ Greenland) forcing cold air to buckle in eastern NA. * The PNA blocks the pacific air, forcing air to come southward out of Canada. But what are the best values? Do we want very negative NAO & AO values and a very positive PNA value? Would the extremes just cause dry and cold, etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: So dealing with the indices, what is the optimal look? * I know a negative AO helps with cross polar flow. * The NAO helps block the NE (~ Greenland) forcing cold air to buckle in eastern NA. * The PNA blocks the pacific air, forcing air to come southward out of Canada. But what are the best values? Do we want very negative NAO & AO values and a very positive PNA value? Would the extremes just cause dry and cold, etc.... It's difficult to place a numerical value on it, as the configurations within the domains ultimately dictate how the pattern is influenced and what it produces. My suspicion is that a strongly -AO/NAO coupled with a strongly +PNA would yield suppressing cold and dry. However, the PNA ridge placement and it's orientation, for example, could make the difference between cold/dry and cold/wet. If you have a tall enough PNA ridge, you have at least an opportunity for waves in the jet to travel southeast toward the Gulf, possibly spinning up a storm. A flatter ridge would dampen out the wave and you may get little in the way of precip. Having the -AO/NAO allows cold air to be close by. But does the orientation of those features squash any wave or suppress it too far south? Or does it allow the wave to travel too far north? Looking at h500 is more important than the numerical value, IMO, as it will provide clues as to what is possible in any given pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: It's difficult to place a numerical value on it, as the configurations within the domains ultimately dictate how the pattern is influenced and what it produces. My suspicion is that a strongly -AO/NAO coupled with a strongly +PNA would yield suppressing cold and dry. However, the PNA ridge placement and it's orientation, for example, could make the difference between cold/dry and cold/wet. If you have a tall enough PNA ridge, you have at least an opportunity for waves in the jet to travel southeast toward the Gulf, possibly spinning up a storm. A flatter ridge would dampen out the wave and you may get little in the way of precip. Having the -AO/NAO allows cold air to be close by. But does the orientation of those features squash any wave or suppress it too far south? Or does it allow the wave to travel too far north? Looking at h500 is more important than the numerical value, IMO, as it will provide clues as to what is possible in any given pattern. Thanks CR. You know the old saying (...from us), lets get the cold air and then worry about the precipitation. ORH just posted to the NE folks, saying the NAO was definitely more important for the MA and SE. So I would say get the value for that as negative as we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Good start to met winter. Atleast Mack stays BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 26 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It's difficult to place a numerical value on it, as the configurations within the domains ultimately dictate how the pattern is influenced and what it produces. My suspicion is that a strongly -AO/NAO coupled with a strongly +PNA would yield suppressing cold and dry. However, the PNA ridge placement and it's orientation, for example, could make the difference between cold/dry and cold/wet. If you have a tall enough PNA ridge, you have at least an opportunity for waves in the jet to travel southeast toward the Gulf, possibly spinning up a storm. A flatter ridge would dampen out the wave and you may get little in the way of precip. Having the -AO/NAO allows cold air to be close by. But does the orientation of those features squash any wave or suppress it too far south? Or does it allow the wave to travel too far north? Looking at h500 is more important than the numerical value, IMO, as it will provide clues as to what is possible in any given pattern. Good post. More along the lines of Goldy locks and 3 bears. Too strong of -AO/NAO -PNA the pattern becomes supper suppressed. With all 3 going negative values which we havent seen in some time. But think 09/10 was unanimously cold for FL. Haven't looked but what was the nao ao pna then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: +100000! what could possibly go wrong from here!?? The 12z model cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, FLweather said: Good post. More along the lines of Goldy locks and 3 bears. Too strong of -AO/NAO -PNA the pattern becomes supper suppressed. With all 3 going negative values which we havent seen in some time. But think 09/10 was unanimously cold for FL. Haven't looked but what was the nao ao pna then? Wasn't 09/10 the super blocky winter? Or was it 10/11? But yeah, one (maybe both) of those winters we had some really good, strong blocking. And it's pretty much sucked ever since! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: Good start to met winter. Atleast Mack stays BN. Packs at it again! You know it's about to get cold, he's started posting the maps with the most red on them! We all know it's going to be well above normal, til atleast the 10th! Good try tho! That's probably about Thursday, when a lot of people in the Carolinas will see 70s!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Think it was 09/10. The year so many pythons were caught. Cold and sluggish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Get the shorts ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 That's a tremendously deep trough on the GFS, with a heavy block. Cool anomalies down through the Gulf into Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 And Euro lacking. Holding back the sw trough. Neither are right. Typical bias. Euro under gfs over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Extended GFS is pretty much how you would draw up an ideal SE winter storm at 500mb. Subtropical jet wave undercutting a western ridge and plowing into California, then staying suppressed into the SE due to a heavy block. It looks like an El Nino pattern really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 57 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Thanks CR. You know the old saying (...from us), lets get the cold air and then worry about the precipitation. ORH just posted to the NE folks, saying the NAO was definitely more important for the MA and SE. So I would say get the value for that as negative as we can. Yeah, the AO and NAO can't be too negative for us in my view. In the Pacific, I like the mean ridging to be in between the PNA and EPO....so, best to have it in Eastern Alaska and NW Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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