Waiting on snow Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 7 hours ago, packbacker said: As soon as Dec 1st hits we get that winter of 16/17 look... Looks like the PNA is just as important as the NAO. Maybe even more. It's clearly overriding the blocking here. That -PNA need to disappear fast as we move into winter or we may waste the first favorable NAO in years. Just my opinion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 2 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Ryan Maue | weather.usVerified account @RyanMaue 25m25 minutes ago December 2017 monthly temperatures continue to be forecast well above normal in CFSv2 across Lower 48 USA. Avg of last 40 cycles: Weather.us - Home of free ECMWF/Euro model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Solak said: Ryan Maue | weather.usVerified account @RyanMaue 25m25 minutes ago December 2017 monthly temperatures continue to be forecast well above normal in CFSv2 across Lower 48 USA. Avg of last 40 cycles: Weather.us - Home of free ECMWF/Euro model But , but the weeklies and the blocking , it's happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: But , but the weeklies and the blocking , it's happening! Sorry, but those anomalies are way too high...... Very low chance of verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 20 hours ago, Solak said: Mild or cold, I don't like this from the 12z... 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0 " and Convective: 0 " New GFS has .1". WIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 GEFS cumulative 500mb anom thru 384 hrs... Consistent abv normal heights around Greenland. Heights really drop in the east after first few days of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: New GFS has .1". WIN! And an hour 396 potential winter storm!! Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Here's the day 6-10 GEFS cumulative 500mb height map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 LOL - 24 hours later - 12z GFS 1/2 next Friday, 1/2 on 12/10 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 3.35 " and Convective: 0.13 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Looks like the EURO is going for a phased low off the coast around day 6 with all that energy coming.Putting down .5'' to 1'' precip across Fayetteville up to Raleigh/Rocky Mount at day 7 ,much lesser west only a few tenths. Quicker phase would be better in my opinion,get more precip in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Been 7 years since we have seen something like. Still modeled fantasy though...difficult to avert your eyes from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 GEFS is in agreement as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Past 6 December’s...complete opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Yep. We all knew this string of +NAO early winter patterns would break eventually. Watching the 18z GFS rolling and early December continues to trend toward low heights over the east coast and central Atlantic. The real chill not there yet but the following week looking to be when it all dumps in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Wow said: Yep. We all knew this string of +NAO early winter patterns would break eventually. Watching the 18z GFS rolling and early December continues to trend toward low heights over the east coast and central Atlantic. The real chill not there yet but the following week looking to be when it all dumps in. I wish we could roll that 384 hour look to within day 10. .....cold air pressing southward with a moisture feed incoming from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 It's snowing IMBY @ hr 372 on 0z GFS! I'll take it and call it a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 Indices looking good in the LR. PNA - Now solidly going positive in the LR. NAO - Going strongly negative in LR. AO - Going strongly negative in the LR. This is one of the best depictions I've seen in some time. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 8 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Indices looking good in the LR. PNA - Now solidly going positive in the LR. NAO - Going strongly negative in LR. AO - Going strongly negative in the LR. This is one of the best depictions I've seen in some time. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Cold Rain, we need gifs for these fantastic indicies, before they Chang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Cold Rain, we need gifs for these fantastic indicies, before they Chang! I'll hit you up in Monday! Hopefully, they hold out till then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 Yep, we need CRs analysis on the indices. They look good now but we need some mojo to go along with them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 54 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yep, we need CRs analysis on the indices. They look good now but we need some mojo to go along with them... The indices have been pretty good really. We have blocking or close to it currently. Iv been reading across the board and see some great info especially from the MA crew from Bob chill and CAPE, and a few others, also the NE thread has some good analysis. Seems like we have a two to three week step down process which i am gung ho about because that will really put use into the start of prime climo for snow especially with the winter solstice coming. Also the EPS is really starting to look great around December the 8th onward especially with significant blocking taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 Hey SE folks. We're all cautiously optimistic up and down the coast right now. For the MA and SE it takes more than a great pattern to produce. We've both wasted far more good patterns with limited results than the other way around. However, a west based nao block is probably the highest odds feature. Time will tell but right now a west based nao block is unanimous. Hard not to like that. With that being said, I have a hunch you guys will score before the MA. Climo is still hostile during early Dec but the western half to 2/3rds of NC are probably in the best postion IF the west based nao verifies. I can easily envision a wave tracking through the TN valley and off the coast down the line. Keep an eye on the ens mean precip panels. Both the gefs and eps have a decent precip signal in the d11-15 range for tn/nc. Not as much for my area. My hunch is blocked flow/confluence favors areas south of the MA. A long ways out and nothing discreet on the radar but something worth nothing either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hey SE folks. We're all cautiously optimistic up and down the coast right now. For the MA and SE it takes more than a great pattern to produce. We've both wasted far more good patterns with limited results than the other way around. However, a west based nao block is probably the highest odds feature. Time will tell but right now a west based nao block is unanimous. Hard not to like that. With that being said, I have a hunch you guys will score before the MA. Climo is still hostile during early Dec but the western half to 2/3rds of NC are probably in the best postion IF the west based nao verifies. I can easily envision a wave tracking through the TN valley and off the coast down the line. Keep an eye on the ens mean precip panels. Both the gefs and eps have a decent precip signal in the d11-15 range for tn/nc. Not as much for my area. My hunch is blocked flow/confluence favors areas south of the MA. A long ways out and nothing discreet on the radar but something worth nothing either way. Thanks Bob for stopping by. I have really been enjoying yalls analysis the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hey SE folks. We're all cautiously optimistic up and down the coast right now. For the MA and SE it takes more than a great pattern to produce. We've both wasted far more good patterns with limited results than the other way around. However, a west based nao block is probably the highest odds feature. Time will tell but right now a west based nao block is unanimous. Hard not to like that. With that being said, I have a hunch you guys will score before the MA. Climo is still hostile during early Dec but the western half to 2/3rds of NC are probably in the best postion IF the west based nao verifies. I can easily envision a wave tracking through the TN valley and off the coast down the line. Keep an eye on the ens mean precip panels. Both the gefs and eps have a decent precip signal in the d11-15 range for tn/nc. Not as much for my area. My hunch is blocked flow/confluence favors areas south of the MA. A long ways out and nothing discreet on the radar but something worth nothing either way. Feel free to stop by anytime... your thoughts are always welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 18 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Thanks Bob for stopping by. I have really been enjoying yalls analysis the past few days. Appreciate it. I'm in chips fall mode now. I've seen enough and unless consensus breaks over the next week, I'm pretty much ready to start talking about something discrete instead of all the pretty colors on the ens mean h5 panels. lol. This is what I'm talking about. This panel is late in the run but the precip signal starts in TX and just glides eastward into the TN valley. The trajectory is indicative of a strong block. Something we haven't really talked about since 2010-11. lol. The GEFS has been showing different versions of this for a couple days but for simplicity, here's the 6z panel late in the run. The precip bullseye is centered over TN but not much of a northward progression during the trip from TX. Interesting stuff even @ long leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Appreciate it. I'm in chips fall mode now. I've seen enough and unless consensus breaks over the next week, I'm pretty much ready to start talking about something discrete instead of all the pretty colors on the ens mean h5 panels. lol. This is what I'm talking about. This panel is late in the run but the precip signal starts in TX and just glides eastward into the TN valley. The trajectory is indicative of a strong block. Something we haven't really talked about since 2010-11. lol. The GEFS has been showing different versions of this for a couple days but for simplicity, here's the 6z panel late in the run. The precip bullseye is centered over TN but not much of a northward progression during the trip from TX. Interesting stuff even @ long leads. Thanks for dropping by Bob! Appreciate the input and hopefully the SE and MA crew can cash in on these favorable conditions that will hopefully come to fruition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Appreciate it. I'm in chips fall mode now. I've seen enough and unless consensus breaks over the next week, I'm pretty much ready to start talking about something discrete instead of all the pretty colors on the ens mean h5 panels. lol. This is what I'm talking about. This panel is late in the run but the precip signal starts in TX and just glides eastward into the TN valley. The trajectory is indicative of a strong block. Something we haven't really talked about since 2010-11. lol. The GEFS has been showing different versions of this for a couple days but for simplicity, here's the 6z panel late in the run. The precip bullseye is centered over TN but not much of a northward progression during the trip from TX. Interesting stuff even @ long leads. Was just looking at the qpf output for day 11+...wow. Good to hear from you Bob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 The mjo has changed too. A few days ago had it forecasted to be 3 to low to possibly 6/7. Now the map is currently on the threshold of low 4. Showing it going into 3 before cycling through phases 3 to 7. ATM hard to believe either gfs or euro. Vastly different after 200hrs. If the gfs is right then the pacific NW should calm down and the sjs should become more active since its showing a huge h5 and h3 trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 The 18z at 252hr drops the 850mb into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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