FLweather Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Mods. Feel free to remove if it violates T&C. Last nights Euro clearly demonstrates the pattern ATM. H3 wind stream speed and direction of Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 That's a pile of energy moving in from the Pac northwest and a big storm showing up on the Euro/Ukie day 6/7 across the upper Midwest.It looks to be carving out the trof a bit further west and shoviig the SW ridge further west..No SE death ridge yet and Canada still in the icebox but we'll probably run warm 3 or 4 days till we clear the front. Solar wind so far for the month is 434.1 km/s,tick lower than October and nowhere near September.If that solar can improve a little working with this very optimal QBO,the whole hammer might drop in my opinion. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 14 hours ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I am not talking about true arctic air, I'm just talking about the blocking and the models not really sending much cold air down into our area. From the GFS to the Euro the models have back off from the cold punch we should see this weekend. Maybe it will come back but the Pac NW is hurting us though. I'm not worried just puzzled. Y'all aren't really looking at the details of the pattern. Just because there is ridging near Greenland doesn't mean we have strong blocking going on. We lack a PV on this side of the pole and the ridges are riding up over Canada, preventing cold air from getting there and also here. The Pacific has generally been pretty crappy, with the ridging being too far west or non-existent. The result is more ridging in the central US and no good mechanisms to generate a broad strong trough in the eastern part of North America. Also climate change seems to be really kicking in and the globe is just warm. This seems to be preventing the build up of cold air that might otherwise help induce a longer-lasting more significant pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Y'all aren't really looking at the details of the pattern. Just because there is ridging near Greenland doesn't mean we have strong blocking going on. We lack a PV on this side of the pole and the ridges are riding up over Canada, preventing cold air from getting there and also here. The Pacific has generally been pretty crappy, with the ridging being too far west or non-existent. The result is more ridging in the central US and no good mechanisms to generate a broad strong trough in the eastern part of North America. Also climate change seems to be really kicking in and the globe is just warm. This seems to be preventing the build up of cold air that might otherwise help induce a longer-lasting more significant pattern change. Enough already. Isn't there a thread soley dedicated to this subject on the board somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Enough already. Isn't there a thread soley dedicated to this subject on the board somewhere? Should we just have a single thread for ENSO too? It's relevant, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Should we just have a single thread for ENSO too? It's relevant, man. Not here no. Too political and belongs in its place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: Not here no. Too political and belongs in its place It's just weather. Figuring out the solution is a political issue, but the *observed* increase in CO2, air and ocean temperatures isn't really up for debate, TBH. I'm not asking you to support the Paris Accords or any of that. I'm asking you to accept that it's a factor in the weather we experience. It'd be ridiculous to exclude it. Do you think this doesn't make a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Even if you believe this is just climate cycles and nothing to do with CO2, the fact is that things *are* warm right now and have been for a few years and it doesn't look likely to let up in the near future. So given that we are in some sort of warm phase, we need to take that into consideration when evaluating patterns and forecasts, especially of the seasonal variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Blaming it for the current transient north american weather pattern is skeptic at best. Like I said, doesn't belong in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Blaming it for the current transient north american weather pattern is skeptic at best. Like I said, doesn't belong in this thread But reading the random tea leaves from the 384 hour GFS is okay? In any case, if the whole planet is fairly warm, then we can't just blame that on a weird pattern in North America. And we can't just blame the warmth here on a weird pattern either. The level of warmth in the air and especially in the oceans is going to have an effect on our weather patterns and our temperatures. It's going to affect the jet stream and the strength of ridges. It matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Temperatures aside, the US weather for the entire 240 hours on the models is the most boring (and dry) I've seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Temperatures aside, the US weather for the entire 240 hours on the models is the most boring (and dry) I've seen in a long time. La Nina baby. I'm actually surprised we've averaged below normal for November. But maybe there'll be a reload as the CFS is suggesting in the early-mid December timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, WidreMann said: La Nina baby. I'm actually surprised we've averaged below normal for November. But maybe there'll be a reload as the CFS is suggesting in the early-mid December timeframe. At least some of us have fantasy snow this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 8 hours ago, JoshM said: Temperatures aside, the US weather for the entire 240 hours on the models is the most boring (and dry) I've seen in a long time. Yeah, I know!! Wake up to 11 new posts and think a winter storm popped up on the Euro, Sadly that was not the case!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 7 hours ago, JoshM said: At least some of us have fantasy snow this run... Reel that inside of 300 hours , then start the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 CMC overtakes the GFS for 3rd now at day 5 and almost tied at day 6.GFS is just terrible beyond 5 days I personally don't even look at it but not terrible inside 5.Euro and Ukie still up top with the Ukie closing a bit lately.Check out day 5 and 6. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Reel that inside of 300 hours , then start the thread! Just out of sheer boredom, the 12z has a great look at 384, lol! Cold pressing down on a southern slider coming out of TX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 18z GFS - 11/23 ... for 12/7 at KJNX 324 Thu 12/07 06Z 75 ° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 28 minutes ago, Solak said: 18z GFS - 11/23 ... for 12/7 at KJNX 324 Thu 12/07 06Z 75 ° Don't worry, the 0z will be out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 4 hours ago, Wow said: Don't worry, the 0z will be out soon enough. Luckily, it's quite toasty as well! Maybe late December will be our time to shine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Luckily, it's quite toasty as well! Maybe late December will be our time to shine! Not nearly as toasty as the 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 GFS 6z looks very toasty ! I guess it didn't see the Euro weeklies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 With just a few days left go for November. Raleigh is -2.7 for the month and Greensboro is -1.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS 6z looks very toasty ! I guess it didn't see the Euro weeklies! As soon as Dec 1st hits we get that winter of 16/17 look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 But per twitter...weeklies say pattern flips come mid-Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 35 minutes ago, packbacker said: But per twitter...weeklies say pattern flips come mid-Dec. Yeah, who knows what to think!? Mixed signals, my gut says go with torch , and get the pre emergeant ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 2 hours ago, packbacker said: But per twitter...weeklies say pattern flips come mid-Dec. Right on schedule for kickoff next week. Warm with pattern change always two weeks out. Fun stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Mild or cold, I don't like this from the 12z... 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0 " and Convective: 0 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, Solak said: Mild or cold, I don't like this from the 12z... 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0 " and Convective: 0 " Cool, and I thought I could only drought during summer! And with the warm and dry pattern setting up in the long term, looks like typical Niña pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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