SnowNiner Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Last winter, we couldn't buy blocking. November, going into December looked terrible. And it turned out terrible. What is it that you guys want to see? Everything looks great, blockificaton nation in full effect...just hope it can continue to the months that count. Like your favorite team shooting 100% from the floor....in warmups. They look really good! But will it last through game time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Last winter, we couldn't buy blocking. November, going into December looked terrible. And it turned out terrible. What is it that you guys want to see? I want to see models that are correct, just once! Is that too much to ask!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 53 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah this is a head scratcher. I feel a lot better know that blocking has taken place in both regions even as we head into December. But the models look very meh like with the upper pattern and with the temp profile. Maybe there is just a lag and the models have not caught onto this type of pattern setting up yet. I agree with Lag theory. Models past 5 days on big H5 features take a while to digest/sort and spit out end results or LR forecast. Tell you I feel a whole lot better optimistic today 11/21 than I did just a month ago 10/21. Think well have a pretty decent climo avg winter when all is said and done. Not being able to avg near or AN precip is my biggest concern. Temps and climo snowfall not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I want to see models that are correct, just once! Is that too much to ask!? Yes. Wayyyyyy too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Models do like to be delayed when it comes to major pattern changes.. hence the big Thanksgiving Week cold snap that was modeled about 2 weeks ago that rather epically fell flat. They really don't do well in transition periods like late November into December for whatever reason.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I agree with Lag theory. Models past 5 days on big H5 features take a while to digest/sort and spit out end results or LR forecast. Tell you I feel a whole lot better optimistic today 11/21 than I did just a month ago 10/21. Think well have a pretty decent climo avg winter when all is said and done. Not being able to avg near or AN precip is my biggest concern. Temps and climo snowfall not so much. Yeah just average temps Ill be happy with. The snow will come. At least here in the mountains we have had no shortage in moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 What happened to the Arctic blast for Monday/ Tuesday ? My highs are 57/59 respectively! Brrrrrrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: I want to see models that are correct, just once! Is that too much to ask!? Heads up, numerical models are and always will be wrong. You know, the old lack of data, parameterization, imperfect equations, assumptions, scale analysis, land model, energy budget, and inherent non-linear noise with time kind of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 34 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I agree with Lag theory. Models past 5 days on big H5 features take a while to digest/sort and spit out end results or LR forecast. Tell you I feel a whole lot better optimistic today 11/21 than I did just a month ago 10/21. Think well have a pretty decent climo avg winter when all is said and done. Not being able to avg near or AN precip is my biggest concern. Temps and climo snowfall not so much. This is where I have to somewhat channel 'Cold Rain's thinking. Get me the cold weather here first. We are in the southeast with water on two sides and banked by mountains on the other. This is not an arid climate despite "dry" weather. Precip will always come but we struggle climatologically with temps...always have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What happened to the Arctic blast for Monday/ Tuesday ? My highs are 57/59 respectively! Brrrrrrr! Man, low to mid 50s for a high is what I expect in the dead of winter, normal . Getting that in fall, and we're ahead of the game. The sky is certainly not falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Webber posted this today other board. Give me that look any day in winter and I will take my chances with the cold. If that blocking continues to be modeled, the cold will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 54 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What happened to the Arctic blast for Monday/ Tuesday ? My highs are 57/59 respectively! Brrrrrrr! My NWS forecast is sunny and upper 40's for a high on Monday after a morning low in the mid/upper 20's. Solidly below normal. Your forecast is 52 and 30 respectively. Where did you get 57 and 59? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 All that complaining today and the 18z gfs still wants to give you a nice overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: My NWS forecast is sunny and upper 40's for a high on Monday after a morning low in the mid/upper 20's. Solidly below normal. Your forecast is 52 and 30 respectively. Where did you get 57 and 59? TWC, the local forecast, the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 3 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Webber posted this today other board. Yes, climate change is a head scratcher for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 59 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Give me that look any day in winter and I will take my chances with the cold. If that blocking continues to be modeled, the cold will come. No doubt and its a slam dunk November is BN now. Starting December off on a great note. This is what you want to see this time of year, season officially kicks off in 8 days and we are starting with a healthy roster of players we all whine about drafting. Can't count a win or lose when we are just now having the coin toss lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 41 minutes ago, Wow said: All that complaining today and the 18z gfs still wants to give you a nice overrunning event. It wants to give me a lot, like a Thanksgiving day low 40s high, but it never gives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 This is indeed a good sight and, also a surprising one for myself and anyone else who has not following the pattern closely enough to realize this would be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, calm_days said: This is indeed a good sight and, also a surprising one for myself and anyone else who has not following the pattern closely enough to realize this would be happening. What's a good sight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What's a good sight? Gulf Lows and troughiness along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What's a good sight? I presume he means a troughy look along the east coast with some semblance of LP spinning up from the gulf? Would like to see something similar another month or so down the road with colder air locked in. Bring on a nice Miller A with blocking. Maybe something close to this (slightly west with precip shield this time) for my selfish interests in the Triad... http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 55 minutes ago, FLweather said: Gulf Lows and troughiness along the coast. Ok, gotcha! All we are missing is cold! Hopefully this will look like this in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 The euro keeps getting warmer and warmer and so does the eps. No torch but we have all this blocking and the atmosphere is responding in a funny way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: The euro keeps getting warmer and warmer and so does the eps. No torch but we have all this blocking and the atmosphere is responding in a funny way. I really don't understand what the heck is going on. As I mentioned last week, climo tells us that it is difficult to get true arctic air into the southeast in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 The pacific jet is still screaming and still in control with the blocking that's going on. But mainly the pacific keeping the true cold air in Canada. That combined with sjs becoming more active from Hawaii to SO Cal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 4 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I really don't understand what the heck is going on. As I mentioned last week, climo tells us that it is difficult to get true arctic air into the southeast in November. Yeah I am not talking about true arctic air, I'm just talking about the blocking and the models not really sending much cold air down into our area. From the GFS to the Euro the models have back off from the cold punch we should see this weekend. Maybe it will come back but the Pac NW is hurting us though. I'm not worried just puzzled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Also what phase is the MJO going in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 59 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I am not talking about true arctic air, I'm just talking about the blocking and the models not really sending much cold air down into our area. From the GFS to the Euro the models have back off from the cold punch we should see this weekend. Maybe it will come back but the Pac NW is hurting us though. I'm not worried just puzzled. We are in great shape and the GEFS and Euro show us getting BN by end of first full week of Dec. Gefs improves the pac /west coast look quicker and gets rid of the trough soner than the euro suite. Both show what we want to see blocking wise and are very consistent. Till then enjoy normal, slightly BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Right now the MJO is in the low category. Heading for 3&4. The possibly from anywhere from low to 7/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Indices looking better than from a couple days back: PNA - Looks to finally get to neutral and stay that way into the LR NAO - Looks to average negative into the LR AO - Looks to jump to neutral in the ST but fall back negative in the LR http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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