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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted

As long as its a nice mid Dec to mid Feb pattern I can live with that.  But once again it feels like the changes we need to see are sitting 2 weeks out every model run. (Or maybe all these posts from Mack are just messing with my head!)  All I know is I am still watering and growing grass at Thanksgiving in the triad.  Cooler than last year, yes.  Cold, no.

Side note, I am looking forward to seeing some of this polar vortex snow in the Northeast in the next couple of weeks when I travel up there.  The weather channel promised me it would be there!

 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Here's the GFS Ens trend loop for the 5 day period Nov 20-25.  One thing I notice here is the Greenland ridge, and corresponding low anomaly underneath the ridge, trending north over time.  That weakens the press of our eastern trough.  Call it the MMWE, the Mackeral Model Warming Effect  

JQjvi89.gif

VC3UMAp.gif

 

Looking ahead to early December, it doesn't look like there are any clear signals for well above normal or well below normal temperatures.  

The good news...

1. Ensembles don't show a +AO/+NAO regime settling in.

2. Solar forcing remains relatively weak.  There are ongoing, periodic episodes of increased solar wind escaping from rotating coronal holes in the sun, but that's about it.  I almost hate even mentioning solar because you never know when the next flare up is set to occur.  The time period between now and into January is critical for avoiding big flare ups.

3. Lastly, the stratospheric polar vortex has been slightly stronger than normal from October into November.  However, models are indicating solid disruption over the next 2 weeks.  More than anything, the models aren't indicating a strong ramp up in the vortex strength.  That, in combination with the incoming -QBO and low solar should aid in additional -AO/-NAO episodes.

UDSoKDT.png

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griteater

griteater

Posted
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^ I want to study this more, but regarding the 'inflection point' there on the 500mb charts between the Greenland ridge positive anomalies and the negative anomalies of the 5h low underneath it, it's best for our cold and winter storm interests when this 'inflection point' is closer to the U.S border....i.e. it's best when it is located in the vicinity of the U.S./Canada border along NY State to Maine. 

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said:

KGSP Long Term AFD

  AS OF 100 AM EST MONDAY: THE NOTABLY QUIET MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS   THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE FORECAST   AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN ACROSS THE   CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS DRIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND HUGS   THE CAROLINA COAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING   OF THE TRACK OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, WITH PREVIOUS RUNS   DEPICTING SCENARIOS IN WHICH SOME GULF MOISTURE IS SHUNTED INTO OUR   AREA. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE   AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ANY MOISTURE ABLE TO MAKE   IT THIS FAR NORTH MAY PRESENT SOME WINTRY P-TYPE ISSUES. CONFIDENCE   IS INCREASING THAT THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF   OUR AREA AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH, SO HAVE KEPT POPS UNMENTIONABLE FOR   THE TIME BEING.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM   RANGE, WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS   SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO   OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WRINGING OUT   ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SOME ISOLATED NW FLOW   SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL THEN ADVANCE BEHIND WHAT WILL BE A DRY   FRONT FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL   HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM   RANGE.  

Fwiw. From what I said yesterday and AFD quoted above.  Still hard to tell how the trough will set up. But something I noticed on the Euro.  It's further east with the moisture.  A fairly wide gap between the approaching trough diving in the MW OH Valley and trough along the coast.  You would think that with such trough moisture would be pulled west instead of east. But also noticed 12z nam did make a shift west.  A little colder at 925mb too.  Me personally Imo looking at the mslp maps I think the models under doing the surface features.  May set a little further west.  Seem to keep the frontal boundary south of Orlando.  But ATM there is a weak surface trough north of here and Ocala extending in the Northern GOM. 

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, griteater said:

^ I want to study this more, but regarding the 'inflection point' there on the 500mb charts between the Greenland ridge positive anomalies and the negative anomalies of the 5h low underneath it, it's best for our cold and winter storm interests when this 'inflection point' is closer to the U.S border....i.e. it's best when it is located in the vicinity of the U.S./Canada border along NY State to Maine. 

Hey Grit, can you clarify what the inflection point is on the 5h charts? The white space between the positive and low anomalies? If you're trying to get that along the US border wouldn't that put the vortex in NY? Does that ever happen? I'm misunderstanding. 

Hearing good things about December due to the stratosphere being displaced.  Hopefully it's true.  I hate to waste it in December though, maybe there's a delay into January. 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Hey Grit, can you clarify what the inflection point is on the 5h charts? The white space between the positive and low anomalies? If you're trying to get that along the US border wouldn't that put the vortex in NY? Does that ever happen? I'm misunderstanding. 

Hearing good things about December due to the stratosphere being displaced.  Hopefully it's true.  I hate to waste it in December though, maybe there's a delay into January. 

Yes, the white space between the positive and negative anomalies that is located between Greenland and Maine.  Here's a composite I have of 3 big winter storms with a -NAO.  In this image, the storm wave negative anomaly is located in northern Mexico (same general location for each storm at the listed date/time).  The surface low would be in TX.  The inflection point (white space) here is located just north of Maine.

XDI9IY2.jpg

 

Here's the super suppressed, massive -AO/-NAO pattern that produced South Carolina's big storm in 2010.  Inflection point is located farther south in Massachusetts

Q6fl4Ex.png

 

If it's eastern trough cold air we're talking about instead of winter storms, the same concept applies.  Would have more western ridging for a big arctic outbreak, but the NAO location ideas still apply in terms of how much cold air is driven southeast.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, griteater said:

Yes, the white space between the positive and negative anomalies that is located between Greenland and Maine.  Here's a composite I have of 3 big winter storms with a -NAO.  In this image, the storm wave negative anomaly is located in northern Mexico (same general location for each storm at the listed date/time).  The surface low would be in TX.  The inflection point (white space) here is located just north of Maine.

XDI9IY2.jpg

 

Here's the super suppressed, massive -AO/-NAO pattern that produced South Carolina's big storm in 2010.  Inflection point is located farther south in Massachusetts

Q6fl4Ex.png

 

If it's eastern trough cold air we're talking about instead of winter storms, the same concept applies.  Would have more western ridging for a big arctic outbreak, but the NAO location ideas still apply in terms of how much cold air is driven southeast.

Good info Grit!

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Theme on the Euro Weeklies beginning with Week 3 is a NE Siberia to Bering Sea Low with ridging in W Canada and Alaska....with -AO.  Signal is there for above normal heights thru the run in the high latitudes.  It's a pattern that should favor a solid trough into the heart of the U.S.  Sfc temps are generally below normal east of the Rockies, centered over the Great Lakes.  850 below normal temps are generally confined to the North Central States / Great Lakes.

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

This might be dumb, but it's something I've noticed and don't hear it talked about much on these boards.  I've noticed that a death nail in the pattern for us having any shot at wintry weather is when there is a big vortex sitting over central canada,(which seems to be the case about 90% of the time over the last few winters).  IMO, this trumps other indices, because even when we get AO or NAO blocking, if a vortex sets up shop there, it just means cold/dry followed by cutter/rainstorm.

 

I guess this gets in to why it's so important for us to have a west-based NAO block, as that would mean this vortex has either been busted up, or is displaced to the south and east of said block which is the ideal scenario for us

 

 

 

 

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, griteater said:

Yes, the white space between the positive and negative anomalies that is located between Greenland and Maine.  Here's a composite I have of 3 big winter storms with a -NAO.  In this image, the storm wave negative anomaly is located in northern Mexico (same general location for each storm at the listed date/time).  The surface low would be in TX.  The inflection point (white space) here is located just north of Maine.

Here's the super suppressed, massive -AO/-NAO pattern that produced South Carolina's big storm in 2010.  Inflection point is located farther south in Massachusetts

If it's eastern trough cold air we're talking about instead of winter storms, the same concept applies.  Would have more western ridging for a big arctic outbreak, but the NAO location ideas still apply in terms of how much cold air is driven southeast.

Hey Thanks Grit.  I see what you mean.  I appreciate you taking the time to explain, I enjoy learning what to look for on the models for cold and snow...telltale signs if you will of storm and cold signals.  But those analogs sure are beautiful.  I wonder if we'll ever see that kind of blocking again.  

However look what I found on the 6Z GFS...I think this shows the inflection point in the right place, if not an ideal placement of other features. 

gfs_z500a_nhem_47.png

gfs_T2ma_nhem_47.png

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

However look what I found on the 6Z GFS...I think this shows the inflection point in the right place, if not an ideal placement of other features. 

It's a nice trough with cold temperatures down through Florida, but it also has the appearance of one that is ready to scoot off the east coast

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

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Posted
22 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's a nice trough with cold temperatures down through Florida, but it also has the appearance of one that is ready to scoot off the east coast

Yep, but it had the nice inflection point! Learning!

22 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Blocking is impressive....well the modeled blocking that is.   Last time we saw something like this was Dec 2010.

 

 

 

 

I think 2010 was right around when I started paying attention to the models and this board.  I don't remember blocking modeled like this at all.  I'll be so ticked if we get blocking cool/cold November and December and it evaporates for January and February.  Feels like it's about a month too early. 

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Last winter, we couldn't buy blocking.  November, going into December looked terrible.  And it turned out terrible.

What is it that you guys want to see?

Seriously, would rather have a great pattern going into Dec than hearing "WAIT FOR FAB FEB" for the next 8 weeks while we torch like the last 2 years.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Webber posted this today other board. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2017-11-21 at 2.09.36 PM.png

Yeah this is a head scratcher. I feel a lot better know that blocking has taken place in both regions even as we head into December. But the models look very meh like with the upper pattern and with the temp profile. Maybe there is just a lag and the models have not caught onto this type of pattern setting up yet. 

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