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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

RAH says this: 

From later Tuesday into Friday a trough will 
dominate the pattern over the eastern US bringing a chance for some 
rain to the local area.
Best chances for rain will be Tuesday night 
into early Wednesday, and again Thursday into Thursday night as waves 
of low pressure move from the Gulf of Mexico across Florida to off 
the southeast coast.  Temperatures Thursday night will drop into the 
30s but confidence is very low for frozen precipitation to mix in 
with any rainfall.
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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Canada is warm and there's not really a cold air pipeline set up. It will be chilly, but hardly icy.

Well it is November not Jan so highs in the 40-50 lows in the 30's is right were we should be if we are looking for BN......I am all for a cold Dec/Jan then warming up mid to late Feb so we can actually have a decent spring. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Well it is November not Jan so highs in the 40-50 lows in the 30's is right were we should be if we are looking for BN......I am all for a cold Dec/Jan then warming up mid to late Feb so we can actually have a decent spring. 

Why are we looking for highs in the 20s in November?  Let's get some blocking going and see where the chips fall later in December.

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

Cold Rain is correct.. Unless you're disappointed that the redux of the Nov App Superstorm of 1950 isn't coming, you'll be satisfied. This pattern will bring at or below normal temps for the rest of the month.  The presence of sustained high latitude blocking, especially around Greenland, is a good sign.   Hopefully it continues into December.

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JoshM

JoshM

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Well it is November not Jan so highs in the 40-50 lows in the 30's is right were we should be if we are looking for BN......I am all for a cold Dec/Jan then warming up mid to late Feb so we can actually have a decent spring. 

Indeed... People seem to forget the horrible pattern we were in this time last year. KCLT last Thanksgiving had a High of 74, 1 shy of a record. I'm happy with where we're headed ATM.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Indeed... People seem to forget the horrible pattern we were in this time last year. KCLT last Thanksgiving had a High of 74, 1 shy of a record. I'm happy with where we're headed ATM.

I guess 3-4 weeks of mediocrity/normal, is better than mega-torch, but we most likely are on borrowed time and I think most winter forecasts are showing above normal for Jan/Feb. I don't expect 20s for highs in November, but if we don't score in December, we won't score at all! :(

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I guess 3-4 weeks of mediocrity/normal, is better than mega-torch, but we most likely are on borrowed time and I think most winter forecasts are showing above normal for Jan/Feb. I don't expect 20s for highs in November, but if we don't score in December, we won't score at all! :(

Wow man, what the heck? So, let me get this straight..... you're saying that if it doesn't snow in December, it will not snow all winter. I will take that wager in a New York minute.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tarheel17 said:

Every model run appears to have a weaker and more transient cold outbreak over the SE. Figures.

Still enjoying the below normal weather!

Yep enjoy our week of normal temps, by about Wednesday after thanksgiving, the torch will return! :(

#BLOCKINGMAGIC

#ITSHAPPENING

BLOCKBUSTERDECEMBER

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WidreMann said:

More concerning on the GFS is the massive warming forecast for the Arctic. If we lose all that cold air, I can't imagine that it'll be good for December. We're talking going from having -20 to -30 F air over most of the central Arctic, to teens and 20s.

I don't see the GFS depicting this at all. Actually forecasts cooling overall for the Arctic. 

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Wow said:

12z GFS Day 6-10  500mb anomalies.  November looking like a solid BN month.

YguqUFb.png

 

Day 11-15, some AN 500mb height over the SE but with a PV still over E Canada

9fYLNsu.png

That 11-15 looks suspect with the placement of a big SE Ridge .  That SE Canada PV along with some HP still in Greenland and baffin Islands argue against that. It is apparently placing more emphasis on the big LP off California coast and therefore the resultant SE Ridge.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Thursday  and Thursday night looks a little interesting to me.  Both nam and Euro have a fair amount of N/S energy diving into GOM.  Resulting in a wave of LP in the GOM going up the EC.  Wouldn't take much of a tick or two to the west resulting in rain further back into the Piedmont of NC.  DP temps show in situ CAD for much of NC. 32 DP line along NC/SC border.  But wouldn't take much for a light freezing rain event for the 85 corridor. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Thursday  and Thursday night looks a little interesting to me.  Both nam and Euro have a fair amount of N/S energy diving into GOM.  Resulting in a wave of LP in the GOM going up the EC.  Wouldn't take much of a tick or two to the west resulting in rain further back into the Piedmont of NC.  DP temps show in situ CAD for much of NC. 32 DP line along NC/SC border.  But wouldn't take much for a light freezing rain event for the 85 corridor. 

Just saw that. Definitely something to keep an eye on. There has been a few model runs that showed something close and then lost it during the last 4/5 days.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

KGSP Long Term AFD

  AS OF 100 AM EST MONDAY: THE NOTABLY QUIET MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS   THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE FORECAST   AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN ACROSS THE   CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS DRIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND HUGS   THE CAROLINA COAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING   OF THE TRACK OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, WITH PREVIOUS RUNS   DEPICTING SCENARIOS IN WHICH SOME GULF MOISTURE IS SHUNTED INTO OUR   AREA. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE   AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ANY MOISTURE ABLE TO MAKE   IT THIS FAR NORTH MAY PRESENT SOME WINTRY P-TYPE ISSUES. CONFIDENCE   IS INCREASING THAT THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF   OUR AREA AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH, SO HAVE KEPT POPS UNMENTIONABLE FOR   THE TIME BEING.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM   RANGE, WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS   SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO   OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WRINGING OUT   ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SOME ISOLATED NW FLOW   SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL THEN ADVANCE BEHIND WHAT WILL BE A DRY   FRONT FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL   HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM   RANGE.  

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