BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Models is about like playing poker, Ya never know what the next hand/run will be.... lol Mama always said life was like the weather models........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 That's an interesting image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 National Science Foundation Winter Forecast https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: The silence is deafening! Another model bust on the mega cool down. Thanksgiving looks right at normal. So much for the awesome cold Thanksgiving! Model watching getting of to a great start! A model flip is not a model bust. A model does not bust or verify until the day/time being discussed. I thought we were talking about Thanksgiving (still 6 days away). I would not even call what has transpired over the last couple days as a flip. More of a backing off because of uncertainty. We shall see. I would take where we sit now over where we have been the last few years for Thanksgiving and the next 3 months. But I try to see the glass half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 It may not be mackerel-cold, but GFS and GEFS are on the chilly side over the next 10-12 days with persistent eastern trough...and dry NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Im going to be suprised if we dont see a miller A type storm/Coastal runner pop between Nov 25-Dec 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 10 Thats how many days in a row RDU has been at or below normal. Fact all have been below except yesterday they ended up at normal. If they can squeek out today and tommorrow, theyll have a shot to really pile on and make a run at a nice record of consecutive days at or below normal. At Greensboro we ended up on the plus side yesterday. But had a great run and time to start a new one. Both locales are about -2 for the month and pretty much guranteed a below normal Nov . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 3 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said: National Science Foundation Winter Forecast https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp Looks alot like Jb's Pioneer Model. Maybe they're onto something. Jb's Model does incorporate more influential pattern Drivers than most others. IF these were to pan out, there's going to be alot of these well written , detailed outlooks bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 The euro looks world's better than the past several runs. Nice ridge out west and trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 3 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Im going to be suprised if we dont see a miller A type storm/Coastal runner pop between Nov 25-Dec 2. 12z Euro's got you covered baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 18z GFS = unorganized LP off shore + weakening 1022 HP Ingredients are there, maybe by the time my turkey thaws out we'll know if we have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 18z operational was nothing to write home about, but the ensembles are still showing quite a spread beyond 72. The hope here is that the s/w dropping well south will fully phase and pull the PV over the NE. BTW, the cumulative snow map for the Euro by end of run on D10 is excellent. Lots of snowfall over SE Canada and the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Wow said: 18z operational was nothing to write home about, but the ensembles are still showing quite a spread beyond 72. The hope here is that the s/w dropping well south will fully phase and pull the PV over the NE. BTW, the cumulative snow map for the Euro by end of run on D10 is excellent. Lots of snowfall over SE Canada and the NE. You got it man. The big question this winter is if we get substantial blocking. If so, there's going to be plenty of cold to the north to push into our region. Blocking could provide a repeat of 1995 & 2010 type winters (la nina / blocking winters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I agree. The major key is the Thanksgiving Day storm. How much northern stream energy gets injected into the southern stream. If the southern stream can close off that would definitely help pulling the PV closer to the NE. Alot can happen over the next week. But if that were to occur the cold will come and may start making the southern stream more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 46 minutes ago, FallsLake said: You got it man. The big question this winter is if we get substantial blocking. If so, there's going to be plenty of cold to the north to push into our region. Blocking could provide a repeat of 1995 & 2010 type winters (la nina / blocking winters). I give up on blocking! All we need is perfect timing to score my annual sleet storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 0z GFS has a Thanksgiving with 40s and rain for most of the region, with some upper 30s in the NC Piedmont. 850s are torching, 700s are around 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 0z gofus stronger with the southern stream h5 low around Turkey Day. More s/w engery gets into the trough. Closed h5 low. Holds the low longer instead of opening into trough. H5 low over Savannah Georgia at 153. May have more impact on pulling the PV further over NE and future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 0z GFS is more in line with the Euro really consolidating a PV over the NE after T-giving. Looks good. T-giving day is a cold, rainy day. Get those fireplaces ready. 1pm temps on Thursday with a GOM low moving up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Certainly different from 18z. Agree Wow. I can't remember specifically about the Euro . But GFS locked on too the ideal of a rain event for FL here about a week ago. Just been some variance. But sure could use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 H5 like night and day. From 18z to 0z. At 276 looks like the stage being set for another trough. S/W north of the MT ND border. 32 degree in FL to Ocala the morning of the 29th. Solid 20s for much of GA SC NC etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Goes zonal after the 29th with a SE ridge and WC trough. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 That's way out.. ignore it. Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I can't way to see the ensembles now... should be some interesting ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Wow. GEFS spaghetti plots are all over the place. Almost makes me wonder if the GFS is off this run too. As an outlier. Anything past Thanksgiving Day it's pretty well equal to a handful of flour or sugar after you throw it. All over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I know I know. It's 384 GFS. But just saying. How does a -nao(ish) pattern coupled with a SE ridge along with a Omega block work again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 No news outlets or weather sites are showing a rainy Thanksgiving. All I see is p/c and low - mid 50s. How's it going to be rainy? Even Brad P has no rain ! Havnt checked w/ Fischel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: No news outlets or weather sites are showing a rainy Thanksgiving. All I see is p/c and low - mid 50s. How's it going to be rainy? Even Brad P has no rain ! Havnt checked w/ Fischel! My NWS forecast is mostly sunny and 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: No news outlets or weather sites are showing a rainy Thanksgiving. All I see is p/c and low - mid 50s. How's it going to be rainy? Even Brad P has no rain ! Havnt checked w/ Fischel! What does KK have to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 The GFS says this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 The CMC, a little slower, says this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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