SN_Lover Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 I don't care what show's on the surface maps. This potential pattern is $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 4 hours ago, Met1985 said: Lol yeah the Euro is not trending in the right direction. Shoot both the Euro and the GFS look warm for a great outdoors Thanksgiving. Still over a week away though. A lot to iron out but yeah the Euro looks like much of the lower 48 will be warm for Thanksgiving. I could very well be wrong here, but I think the Euro is downplaying the blocking effects. This -NAO looks to have legs. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out and where the cold air dump will be focused. With all that being said, climo would suggest that it is difficult to get true arctic air into the southeast before December. However there's always that 1950 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I could very well be wrong here, but I think the Euro is downplaying the blocking effects. This -NAO looks to have legs. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out and where the cold air dump will be focused. With all that being said, climo would suggest that it is difficult to get true arctic air into the southeast before December. However there's always that 1950 event. Yeah I think it may. I know both models have been jumping around a lot. I don't think either model has any idea until we get in under 5 days of blocking. The AO should start to go negative in the next day or two then hopefully the NAO. I'm playing devil's advocate recently with the models jumping around. The GEFS though have been pretty stable in the advertised pattern they are showing. If the Blocking is real and does look to gain momentum then look for some pretty big changes to both models. I mean outside the mountains even this pattern will be hard to get some snow in the lowlands but hopefully after a relaxation we will see more blocking occur in the heart of winter as long as the blocking truly transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 By 240 on the GEFS, all the members are worlds apart. Mystery abounds but the amount of high lat blocks we're going to see is very good to see. The rest of November looks at or below normal, and I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 The AO drops to -4 and the NAO to -2.5 Nov 20th on the mean for the Euro, GFS, and CMC Ensemble...they're all consistent with that element at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Mystery spoiler, take the warm members to the bank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 JAMSTEC went much colder/wetter for the coastal SE on its latest run out today - put it in the La Nina thread if anyone wants to see. Very different to what it forecast for winter last November, when it was (correctly) very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 4 hours ago, griteater said: The AO drops to -4 and the NAO to -2.5 Nov 20th on the mean for the Euro, GFS, and CMC Ensemble...they're all consistent with that element at this time. The -NAO is going to be very important this year. If it turns out to be correctly modeled in the upcoming pattern, that will go a long way in raising confidence that we may see several periods of legit blocking this winter. For now, let's remember that it's November. It's probably not going to snow. But finishing this month below normal and having a legit block will bode well for winter, IMO. We're probably going to have to deal with a decent PAC jet to go along with the pattern for the time being. Not ideal, but it's November. Getting some blocking going is what's important right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Can’t complain about this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 My upper 20s for Sun/Mon night, have morphed into upper 30s! I'm sure the upper pattern is dope and all, but doesn't seem to be translating well to the surface! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: My upper 20s for Sun/Mon night, have morphed into upper 30s! I'm sure the upper pattern is dope and all, but doesn't seem to be translating well to the surface! Only bits and pieces are dope, but not the whole thang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 4 hours ago, Cold Rain said: The -NAO is going to be very important this year. If it turns out to be correctly modeled in the upcoming pattern, that will go a long way in raising confidence that we may see several periods of legit blocking this winter. For now, let's remember that it's November. It's probably not going to snow. But finishing this month below normal and having a legit block will bode well for winter, IMO. We're probably going to have to deal with a decent PAC jet to go along with the pattern for the time being. Not ideal, but it's November. Getting some blocking going is what's important right now. It looks good for us to average below normal for the month. Even after the warm start, RDU is now ~1.5 below for the month. Looking ahead, that number should grow. Today and Saturday look to be the warmest days, but even they look to be around average. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=rah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Still looks like a big phasing event possible next week. Watch this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 To me the indices took a bit of a hit overnight. The PNA does not go positive, the AO dives very negative but looks to go positive again after the sharp dive, the NAO still looks to go somewhat negative but then goes back positive with a lot of spread in the ensembles. I'm very hesitant to believe we get good NAO blocking as we have seen this story time and time again. Also the models reflect this. Yeah we cool down for a say or two over thanksgiving but I think the trough is centered to far north and east for us. I do hope I am wrong with my pessimism though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Had flurries early this morning per met on wxxii 11 winston salem, rural hall area. Warner pool of water west coast mexico is gonna give a nino backdrop as opposed to nina. The cold pool is east and its Nina like affects aren't being felt resulting in west coast trough. Something to keep and eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: To me the indices took a bit of a hit overnight. The PNA does not go positive, the AO dives very negative but looks to go positive again after the sharp dive, the NAO still looks to go somewhat negative but then goes back positive with a lot of spread in the ensembles. I'm very hesitant to believe we get good NAO blocking as we have seen this story time and time again. Also the models reflect this. Yeah we cool down for a say or two over thanksgiving but I think the trough is centered to far north and east for us. I do hope I am wrong with my pessimism though. Transition period so I wouldn't put too much stock into it. Models are going to continue their shenanigans for a while still. Keep the positive vibes cause it will get fun and soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said: Transition period so I wouldn't put too much stock into it. Models are going to continue their shenanigans for a while still. Keep the positive vibes cause it will get fun and soon. Yeah even like a lot have said if this is just a precursor for down the road we will be fine for maybe one or two storms. I'm just not feeling it currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Maybe one day we will get an actual cold shot! That 12z GFS , not bringing the goods for cold Turkey Day! Maybe one day the models will get a cold shot right!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: To me the indices took a bit of a hit overnight. The PNA does not go positive, the AO dives very negative but looks to go positive again after the sharp dive, the NAO still looks to go somewhat negative but then goes back positive with a lot of spread in the ensembles. I'm very hesitant to believe we get good NAO blocking as we have seen this story time and time again. Also the models reflect this. Yeah we cool down for a say or two over thanksgiving but I think the trough is centered to far north and east for us. I do hope I am wrong with my pessimism though. Indicies Schemendicies. Every model I see has blocking around greenland as far as the eye can see. Below is the EPS last night and the newest GEFS. Everybody's on board with legit blocking....and it's been on the models for a week or more. I don't remember having this much modeled blocking agreement in forever. Not to say it couldn't disappear but I highly doubt it. What does that mean for us right now here in November? Probably not much than cool fall weather. As CR said, it ain't snowing down here in November most likely. I'm not looking for snow until late December. But all signs point to some nice blocking that PERHAPS can be a theme for the winter. I hope. But I think we're definitely getting some blocking the next week or 2 IMO. If we don't we may as well throw out every single model and watch them burn. I'm pretty confident we get some blocking this winter too...the stage seems to be getting set. Does the pacific screw it up and we stay normal/cool not cold all winter? Could be, but there seems to be some nice variability out there with the ridges and troughs so we could potentially be in the game just as often as not this winter. Just very nice to have this look starting the winter rather than hoping things do a complete 180 somewhere down the line just to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Euro looks Zonal with a negative PNA and glancing cool invasions besides the cool down this weekend. The EPS will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Euro looks Zonal with a negative PNA and glancing cool invasions besides the cool down this weekend. The EPS will be interesting to see. Looking at days 5-10 on the ensembles, all 3 (GFS, CMC, Euro) have the Greenland/Davis Strait blocking. GFS is slowest and most developed with the low anomaly south of the block and has below normal temps in the east and southeast (5-10 day avg). Euro is fastest and least developed with the low anomaly and has above normal temps. CMC is in between and has normal to slightly above normal temps. Looking ahead to end of month and early Dec, each ensemble mean has a significant low anomaly moving into the Bering Sea, Alaska, and the Gulf of Alaska...with above normal heights over Greenland/Davis Strait...a pattern that would favor a mild western U.S. and normal to cool in the east/southeast. It's largely a dry / NW flow kind of pattern. Stick below normal heights in Greenland/Davis Strait and it would be a torch for the full lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 hours ago, griteater said: Looking at days 5-10 on the ensembles, all 3 (GFS, CMC, Euro) have the Greenland/Davis Strait blocking. GFS is slowest and most developed with the low anomaly south of the block and has below normal temps in the east and southeast (5-10 day avg). Euro is fastest and least developed with the low anomaly and has above normal temps. CMC is in between and has normal to slightly above normal temps. Looking ahead to end of month and early Dec, each ensemble mean has a significant low anomaly moving into the Bering Sea, Alaska, and the Gulf of Alaska...with above normal heights over Greenland/Davis Strait...a pattern that would favor a mild western U.S. and normal to cool in the east/southeast. It's largely a dry / NW flow kind of pattern. Stick below normal heights in Greenland/Davis Strait and it would be a torch for the full lower 48. That could be the theme for the winter. +NAO/AO and we torch; particularly the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Euro Weeklies... Week 3: Big low anomaly in Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. Above normal heights over most of North America. Trough off NE coast. Weak east based +NAO. Slightly below normal temps along E coast including the SE...probably tendency to have high pressure located over the NE and off the NE coast. Warmest temp anomalies are in North Central Canada. Dry in SE, normal precip elsewhere....this is consistent with all of the ensembles, so probably a good forecast for now. Week 4: Pac low anomaly retrogrades west a bit, still located in Aleutians and Bering Sea. Ridge along west coast. Trough centered along Miss River. Weak +NAO. Cool temp anomalies from Great Lakes to TX, to FL, including the SE. Near normal precip in SE. Week 5: +WPO low anomaly in NW Pacific. Ridge off west coast into Alaska. Weak +NAO. Temps cool in E 1/2 of U.S. Precip slightly dry in far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 CMC Weeklies... Week 3: Very similar to Euro except NAO is slightly negative. Cool anomalies in SE. Week 4: Similar to Euro out west. NAO is neutral. Weak trough centered along east coast. Near normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Not saying this winter will be anything close but, the famed la nina winter of 95-96 would have been overall mild if it were not for the strong -NAO much of it. In fact, I believe pretty much all forecasts were as now, for a mild winter. As we all know, models are not good at predicting blocking too far in advance. Also, they tend to break it down too quick, especially the GFS. I think the hope lies in the -QBO and models probably don't incorporate that a whole lot. At least there's some hope against the standard La nina winter backdrop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 The silence is deafening! Another model bust on the mega cool down. Thanksgiving looks right at normal. So much for the awesome cold Thanksgiving! Model watching getting of to a great start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The silence is deafening! Another model bust on the mega cool down. Thanksgiving looks right at normal. So much for the awesome cold Thanksgiving! Model watching getting of to a great start! Yep, the 6z GFS would have normal type temps for many of us; but it would cool to below normal for Black Friday. Looking at the LR, it looks like a lot of slightly below temps on the way. I would add that if blocking sets in (and stays for more than a week), these temps will start showing a colder trend in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The silence is deafening! Another model bust (?) on the mega cool down. Thanksgiving looks right at normal. So much for the awesome cold Thanksgiving! Model watching chasing getting of to a great start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 I'm in the cool/cold December camp, No matter what a model shows.......... Models is about like playing poker, Ya never know what the next hand/run will be.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Dam Mack gfs 0Z and 6Z has highs on Turkey day in the low 40's all over the upstate...is that not cold enough? Thats well below normal homeboy! But i know the fiddle youre playing...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.