mackerel_sky Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The 12z Euro goes the way of the GFS this last run. Trough not as deep. Brief cold shot then the pattern goes Zonal. Are the models missing the blocking or is the blocking really not that strong? False blocking, just like last 2 years! Thought/hoped this winter would be different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: False blocking, just like last 2 years! Thought/hoped this winter would be different! It not winter yet . Give it some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: It not winter yet . Give it some time. I know, just don't want to be saying this in Jan/Feb. Just wanted holiday season to feel like it, we will see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 18z GFS working that Canadian block well coming into T-giving which is going to bring mid-level heights well below normal with a possible phasing opportunity. Then decides to pop a +PNA and keep the mean trough over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Wow said: 18z GFS working that Canadian block well coming into T-giving which is going to bring mid-level heights well below normal with a possible phasing opportunity. Then decides to pop a +PNA and keep the mean trough over the east. Yeah this run has looked the best in a couple of days from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 You can say that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Let's calm down, it's the 18z GFS after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Let's calm down, it's the 18z GFS after all! Shoot for the past several days the 18z has shown crap lol. I am hoping that it will finally catch onto blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 I have no problems with the 18z GFS. It is November, after all. We will get some blocking this year. And it will end up being a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I have no problems with the 18z GFS. It is November, after all. We will get some blocking this year. And it will end up being a good winter. It's all positive vibes, until that big blue line shows up in the sky, just to your NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It's all positive vibes, until that big blue line shows up in the sky, just to your NW! THAT never fails to be the case. But a least all of you to my west and east and north and south will gave a good winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: THAT never fails to be the case. But a least all of you to my west and east and north and south will gave a good winter! You're due CR. It's time to see a Raleigh - Fayetteville - Goldsboro - Rocky Mount - Greenville jackpot. I've missed out on some of those but it would be nice to see the folks in that region see a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, FallsLake said: You're due CR. It's time to see a Raleigh - Fayetteville - Goldsboro - Rocky Mount - Greenville jackpot. I've missed out on some of those but it would be nice to see the folks in that region see a good storm. You still have dues to pay for your early 2000's jackpots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 30 minutes ago, Wow said: You still have dues to pay for your early 2000's jackpots What's the cutoff? 2020? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Low AAM winter 500mb composite doesn’t look very favorable. I may be looking at things from the wrong perspective my understanding of tropical forcing and angular momentum are very limited but the general pattern seems to be low AAM is more conductive to a -PNA high AAM is more favorable for the SE on 500mb composites High AAM years Low AAM years The general theme is for a less favorable pacific in low AAM winter seasons, this year is going to rely on high latitude blocking more times than not if we have an unfavorable pacific pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Day 10 Euro is a beautiful thing, temp wise. If this were January, it'd be Vodka cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 4 hours ago, JoshM said: Day 10 Euro is a beautiful thing, temp wise. If this were January, it'd be Vodka cold. 6z GFS pretty much agrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 9 hours ago, HKY1894 said: Low AAM winter 500mb composite doesn’t look very favorable. I may be looking at things from the wrong perspective my understanding of tropical forcing and angular momentum are very limited but the general pattern seems to be low AAM is more conductive to a -PNA high AAM is more favorable for the SE on 500mb composites High AAM years Low AAM years The general theme is for a less favorable pacific in low AAM winter seasons, this year is going to rely on high latitude blocking more times than not if we have an unfavorable pacific pattern. From what I've read, this is consistent with the ENSO conditions; whereas if we're in a la nina we should be getting a negative AAM. (so) This goes along with this boards agreement that blocking is crucial (more than ever) this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 There's been a lot of snow build up in Canada during the last month. For the next ten days that will continue. Notice how much is building in Quebec. Deep snow promotes colder temps. That could be very beneficial in a future CAD setup. If we get a strong high to sets up over the NE, the cold air source will be from this (or at least partially from this) region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, FallsLake said: There's been a lot of snow build up in Canada during the last month. For the next ten days that will continue. Notice how much is building in Quebec. Deep snow promotes colder temps. That could be very beneficial in a future CAD setup. If we get a strong high to sets up over the NE, the cold air source will be from this (or at least partially from this) region. Well, the ensembles still look as blocky and eastern troughy as could be...from this weekend down to the end of the month. That'll probably get us a below normal November I hope. But to tell you the truth the whole "wasted pattern" weenie thinking gnaws at my mind. Hopefully we don't waste all our blocks in the fall. I guess I'd rather have it evaporate now, and come back in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Well, the ensembles still look as blocky and eastern troughy as could be...from this weekend down to the end of the month. That'll probably get us a below normal November I hope. But to tell you the truth the whole "wasted pattern" weenie thinking gnaws at my mind. Hopefully we don't waste all our blocks in the fall. I guess I'd rather have it evaporate now, and come back in January. My weenie thinking goes on the idea of what pattern is predominant at the end of November into early December, is the predominant pattern for the winter. There's been too many warm starts to December where we keep pushing back the pattern flip until we're saying fab February will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 This looks very cold for Thanksgiviing week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 next week looks cold on the 12z gfs. a BN month looks likely if it verifies. it will feel like the holidays for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: My weenie thinking goes on the idea of what pattern is predominant at the end of November into early December, is the predominant pattern for the winter. There's been too many warm starts to December where we keep pushing back the pattern flip until we're saying fab February will save us. Couldn't agree more. Funny what's on the Buffett from mid Nov to mid Dec ends up being the main course most of the winter. 2010/2011 winter was the last big mid winter flip I remeber. Actually first 3rd was great, then it was over most of Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Greensboro, Triad region will end up below normal for November no doubt in my mind. Question will be by how much. Edit. Just checked and rdu and pti are -1 for the month already, so the 1st week AN has already been washed out. What happens after 4 straight days of -10 to -15 BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 GFS and Canadian Ensembles are fairly similar with below normal temps from Day 6-16, while Euro keeps the cool anomalies centered over the Northeast states, and we are near normal for that period. GFS suite is the coldest of the 3. At the end of the month, same thing, GFS and Canadian Ens have a cooler look compared to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 29 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS and Canadian Ensembles are fairly similar with below normal temps from Day 6-16, while Euro keeps the cool anomalies centered over the Northeast states, and we are near normal for that period. GFS suite is the coldest of the 3. At the end of the month, same thing, GFS and Canadian Ens have a cooler look compared to the Euro. Can't be all in on the cold, until the King supports it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 27 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS and Canadian Ensembles are fairly similar with below normal temps from Day 6-16, while Euro keeps the cool anomalies centered over the Northeast states, and we are near normal for that period. GFS suite is the coldest of the 3. At the end of the month, same thing, GFS and Canadian Ens have a cooler look compared to the Euro. Yeah, the difference seems to be the EURO blows up the western ridge and scoots it further east, making the cold stay north. But everything looks nice and blocky on all the models up near Greenland and the poles, with good blockification for the rest of the month. That's my main focus. I'm not too concerned about sensible weather in November. Warm, cold, whatever, I'm fine. Just hoping that this new November blockimplication pattern will be the predominate pattern for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 I prefer November cold implodification! We've had like 30 months in a row of above normal monthly temps, why should it stop now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I prefer November cold implodification! We've had like 30 months in a row of above normal monthly temps, why should it stop now? Suprisingly GSP is +3 for the month and Asheville +5 prior to today. But up this way we are -1. All due to having more CAD days/hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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