Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[Wow]

The CAD cloudiness never cleared out this afternoon so we hit 60 today vs. the project high of 70.  November is looking better in the mid and long range.  Could pull off a below avg month.  Shocking, I know.

[FallsLake]

2 hours ago, JoshM said:

Next Sunday's wedge looks pretty stout, Canadian even had some IP north of 40.

Canadian is really cold compared to the GFS in the medium range. Has lows solidly into the 20s starting at day 6. 

[FallsLake]

5 minutes ago, Wow said:

The CAD cloudiness never cleared out this afternoon so we hit 60 today vs. the project high of 70.  November is looking better in the mid and long range.  Could pull off a below avg month.  Shocking, I know.

Starting to wonder if this is going to be the year of CAD. Lots of cold air to the north which gets wedged down as highs move over the NE. 

[calculus1]

The CAD cloudiness never cleared out this afternoon so we hit 60 today vs. the project high of 70.  November is looking better in the mid and long range.  Could pull off a below avg month.  Shocking, I know.

Same here. Topped out at 58 F. Currently heavy drizzle outside. Been foggy all day.

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

[NCSNOW]

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Canadian is really cold compared to the GFS in the medium range. Has lows solidly into the 20s starting at day 6. 

Has euro suport. Nough said for now.

[pcbjr]

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Canadian is really cold compared to the GFS in the medium range. Has lows solidly into the 20s starting at day 6. 

Dream until December ...

[WidreMann]

6 hours ago, Wow said:

The CAD cloudiness never cleared out this afternoon so we hit 60 today vs. the project high of 70.  November is looking better in the mid and long range.  Could pull off a below avg month.  Shocking, I know.

The lows are still pretty warm relative to normal. RDU hasn't had a single below normal day this month, with the coolest being just +4.

[FallsLake]

6 hours ago, WidreMann said:

The lows are still pretty warm relative to normal. RDU hasn't had a single below normal day this month, with the coolest being just +4.

That should end starting in a couple of days.

 

(so) For the folks that like cool, overcast, and then even cold fall weather you'll like the upcoming week's weather.

From RAH:

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

The cold front is forecast to push south through central NC tonight.
The CAA should be delayed somewhat as is typically the case with
these fronts. The strong surface high pressure is forecast to build
east first, from the Northern Plains to NY/PA tonight, the finally
southward down the eastern seaboard into NC late tonight and
Tuesday.

In addition to the CAA arriving late tonight and Tuesday, several
mid/upper level disturbances are forecast to move east in the flow
aloft across NC beginning with the first disturbance Tuesday. The
combination of increasing CAA and NE flow Tuesday, along with
increasing rain chances, and considerable low cloudiness mostly
likely will lead to highs occurring early in the day Tuesday.
Temperatures should drop through the late morning and afternoon in
almost all areas, even in the Southern Piedmont. Lows tonight should
be mostly 50s north and 60s south. Then readings will fall into the
40s/50s Tuesday, with light rain and drizzle becoming likely. Lows
Tuesday night should stop in the 40s (possibly 50 around FAY, and
upper 30s at Roxboro). Light rain is likely along with drizzle and
fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...

Wednesday through Thursday night: The surface cold front will stall
to the south of the area during this period, with a train of
disturbances tracking along the stalled low level frontal zone. A
CAD air mass during this time frame will allow for overcast skies,
with below normal temps (especially highs). The CAD will finally
begin to scour out late Thursday/ Thursday night as a one last,
stronger, s/w disturbance moves through the area. Dry conditions are
now expected by early Friday at the latest.

Temps during this period will depend on the placement of the front
and how much cool/dry air is able to work into the area, and how
much precip and resultant evaporatively cooling occurs. Expect high
temps will generally be in the 50s (with some locations possibly
stuck in the 40s across the northern Piedmont on Wednesday), with
overcast skies for a majority of the time frame. Low temps are
generally expected to be in the 40s, with perhaps some 30s if skies
begin to clear on Thursday night/Friday morning.

Friday through Sunday: Dry weather is expected for Friday through
Saturday night, possibly lasting into Sunday. However, cold high
pressure will build into the area late Friday into the weekend. This
will result high temps struggling to reach 50 degrees across
northern portion of the area by Saturday, with low temps in the 30s
areawide by Saturday morning. This will likely be the coldest air of
the season, as a ~1038-1040 mb high extends southward into the area
from the north during this time. Thus, we may see some locations
drop below freezing early Saturday morning.

Medium range operational models have backed off on the potential for
precip spreading back into the area ahead of the next s/w
disturbance on Sunday. However, with some ensemble support, will keep
forecast continuity and maintain a low chance for showers for
Sunday.

 

[FallsLake]

Canadian is not as cold as its last runs but still shows a hard freeze for many of us for Saturday:

 

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Canadian is not as cold as its last runs but still shows a hard freeze for many of us for Saturday:

 

 

15 degrees here? Yikes.  Good thing I'll be at the beach! 

[FallsLake]

AO & NAO looking good in the LR. Both go solidly negative; especially the AO. The PNA stays negative but tries to work towards neutral in the LR.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

[NCSNOW]

Might get 1st frozen precip event of the year in here this weekend. Novelty stuff, but atleast some folks can get there leafs off all the trees at one time and be done with them. Euro is Cold , espeacilly for the heart of the cad areas.

[SnowNiner]

50 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

AO & NAO looking good in the LR. Both go solidly negative; especially the AO. The PNA stays negative but tries to work towards neutral in the LR.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

It's a beautiful thing to see the all the reds up at the top of the globe on the long range ensembles.  Hopefully the late November into December pattern will portend a blocky winter.   

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

AO & NAO looking good in the LR. Both go solidly negative; especially the AO. The PNA stays negative but tries to work towards neutral in the LR.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

I remain very skeptical of all this blocking showing up. Until we get solid values in I am not putting any faith in these indices. 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

I remain very skeptical of all this blocking showing up. Until we get solid values in I am not putting any faith in these indices. 

Yeah, forecasters not biting on colder maps  either. Coldest temp forecast for upstate on NWS is 38 for their 7 day, and on TWC  is 38 for their 15 day. Not exactly knocking the bottom out for Nov.

[Met1985]

15 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah, forecasters not biting on colder maps  either. Coldest temp forecast for upstate on NWS is 38 for their 7 day, and on TWC  is 38 for their 15 day. Not exactly knocking the bottom out for Nov.

Well these indices are farther out in time. The AO and NAO are over a week away before they really fall into the negative zone. So the short term forecast will not show the change at all. The indices changes could greatly impact our weather for Thanksgiving week if the indices come true. 

[mackerel_sky]

This whole winter is toast already! Why are we even looking at 10 days plus indicies , in November ?? We know -NAO is not going to materialize! Have we learned nothing the last 5+ winters!???

[No snow for you]

20 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

This whole winter is toast already! Why are we even looking at 10 days plus indicies , in November ?? We know -NAO is not going to materialize! Have we learned nothing the last 5+ winters!???

Who are you and what did you do with Mack. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

This whole winter is toast already! Why are we even looking at 10 days plus indicies , in November ?? We know -NAO is not going to materialize! Have we learned nothing the last 5+ winters!???

That's the spirit Mac.... Keep up the reverse psychology. It might just work this time.

[downeastnc]

Ill take my fantasy 18Z  318 hr Nov snow...first time so far this season a model has put the blue over MBY....

[Carvers Gap]

Get your hands on today's Weeklies.

[NCSNOW]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Get your hands on today's Weeklies.

I'm just waiting on the proverbial groin kick. You just can't ask for better looking signals as we move into late Nov early Dec. There is a growing drumbeat looking at everything we look at, that for once we actually could be playing with a full deck from the get go for what seems like the 1st time since 2009/2010. 

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

I'm just waiting on the proverbial groin kick. You just can't ask for better looking signals as we move into late Nov early Dec. There is a growing drumbeat looking at everything we look at, that for once we actually could be playing with a full deck from the get go for what seems like the 1st time since 2009/2010. 

Somebody left in the Jokers

[WidreMann]

The pattern's definitely looking better, but it's hardly a classic cold pattern. Maybe it's fine for that to hold off until December. It would be wasted in November.

[griteater]

For the foothills, western piedmont, into the upstate on Sunday, the Euro has light rains and high temperatures in the upper 30's (northern foothills) to mid 40's (upstate)

GSP says..."It is worth noting that if any precip moves in early enough on Sunday it is quite possible to have some light wintry precip mainly in NC."

[NCSNOW]

On 11/6/2017 at 9:30 AM, NCSNOW said:

Might get 1st frozen precip event of the year in here this weekend. Novelty stuff, but atleast some folks can get there leafs off all the trees at one time and be done with them. Euro is Cold , espeacilly for the heart of the cad areas.

Still on track. Some folks might get to enjoy winter for a few mins

[WidreMann]

00z GFS starting to look like the 12z Euro. Another couple runs on board and we'll be looking at a cold second half of November. That would put RDU at below normal probably after this week of -5s to -15s. Most interestingly, it will mean that the CFS forecast of torch will have failed miserably. Same with CanSIPS. What that means down the road, I don't know.

[Cold Rain]

This seems pretty chilly:

[mackerel_sky]

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This seems pretty chilly:

If we can only get inside 10 days!!! 

I hear right around Turkey Day, might be a little chilly!?

[FlatLander48]

Pretty.