mackerel_sky Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Does this count in your big October storm category? Just fire up the pimp wagon, and gets to showin the indicies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 59 minutes ago, FallsLake said: If I'm going totally with what "I" experience, then no. But if I tried to put any scientific explanation to the idea, then this would count. The end location of the storm above would affect the pattern similarly as past Halloween storms. ....If I was trying to be scientific. Scientific?? Winter forecasting is all about gut instinct. And of course, your relationship to the highlighted corridor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 29 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Scientific?? Winter forecasting is all about gut instinct. And of course, your relationship to the highlighted corridor: Yep, winter forecasting is still not remotely reliable. Especially forecast that predict amounts of snow. (so) I have a gut feeling we'll see some good blocking this year. We're do..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 What a beautiful dome of high pressure with a VERY stout wedge (all the way to FL!) on the GFS at D10. OF course it won't happen, but if we could get a few of these this winter we could score for sure. That's just a beautiful map. Looks like typical autumn ups and downs WRT temperatures the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 NWS Halloween Humor NWSVerified account @NWS 6m6 minutes ago Sometimes, we come up with terrible ideas to latch onto trends. Today is one of those days... #NationalCandyCornDay http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 12 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Scientific?? Winter forecasting is all about gut instinct. And of course, your relationship to the highlighted corridor: Hey Cold Rain, what is the Snow Shield Power Outlook for this winter? Are you planning to power it up to the normal 1.21 gigawatts or are you going to throw us poor slobs a bone? We in Wilson are in the snow shadow of your shield dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 18 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Scientific?? Winter forecasting is all about gut instinct. And of course, your relationship to the highlighted corridor: I'm loving this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 21 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Scientific?? Winter forecasting is all about gut instinct. And of course, your relationship to the highlighted corridor: good news, since i moved to charlotte this year rdu will have a carolina crusher redux and CLT will get shut out. mark it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 22 hours ago, Jonathan said: What a beautiful dome of high pressure with a VERY stout wedge (all the way to FL!) on the GFS at D10. OF course it won't happen, but if we could get a few of these this winter we could score for sure. That's just a beautiful map. Looks like typical autumn ups and downs WRT temperatures the next few weeks. Would love to see that in January and February and add a coastal storm or 2 in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 It is really going to get cold over the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin during the next week. Looks like some single digit highs in some places. Hopefully laying down the tracks for cold here later on down the road..... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 6 hours ago, DopplerWx said: good news, since i moved to charlotte this year rdu will have a carolina crusher redux and CLT will get shut out. mark it down. Let me join you in the futility. I'm expecting Chapel Hill to get a crush job while Charlotte gets zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 4 hours ago, yotaman said: Would love to see that in January and February and add a coastal storm or 2 in the mix. No -NAO/Blocking, won't do us any good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: No -NAO/Blocking, won't do us any good! We don't need blocking if we keep getting the parade of HPs that have been going on lately. Eventually we can time it right. I'll take my chances with an abundance of 1035+ Highs with no blocking, as opposed to less highs and more blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 10 hours ago, JoshM said: We don't need blocking if we keep getting the parade of HPs that have been going on lately. Eventually we can time it right. I'll take my chances with an abundance of 1035+ Highs with no blocking, as opposed to less highs and more blocking. Yeah, some have scored with perfect timing, and thread the needle events the last few years, without blocking, because we haven't had a -NAO in winter in like 5 years!! I havnt seen an inch of snow imby , since '13 or '14, or further back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Day 7 Euro isn't a bad look for early November in my opinion,heights falling in the SE with Arctic air bleeding slowly south.Heights slowly inching up across the west with a shortwave across the Rockies.No death ridge over the SE but its more over toward S.Texas,Gulf Coast, and N. Mevico. Canada ,upper Midwest is in the icebox,any of that comes down it will get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 26 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Day 7 Euro isn't a bad look for early November in my opinion,heights falling in the SE with Arctic air bleeding slowly south.Heights slowly inching up across the west with a shortwave across the Rockies.No death ridge over the SE but its more over toward S.Texas,Gulf Coast, and N. Mevico. Canada ,upper Midwest is in the icebox,any of that comes down it will get cold. Wedgie time. That'll get it down here albeit unconvental way. See if we can get a backdoor front mid late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 4m4 minutes ago At 12Z the CMC received a major upgrade. Featured change is model is now ocean-ice coupled. Better med-range skill. http://dd.weather.gc.ca/doc/genots/2017/10/30/NOCN03_CWAO_301922___01740 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Solak said: Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 4m4 minutes ago At 12Z the CMC received a major upgrade. Featured change is model is now ocean-ice coupled. Better med-range skill. http://dd.weather.gc.ca/doc/genots/2017/10/30/NOCN03_CWAO_301922___01740 … Cool! I hope it's still good at predicting ice storms/wedges! It's my go - to model for that type of forecast ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Knock Knock: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Indices looking better for the AO and NAO; with both going negative in the LR. PNA heading towards positive but it still averages slightly negative in the LR. I would love to see it show more positive runs in the up coming days. I read Grit's winter forecast and have to agree with his analysis; but I can still hope things turn around for us by the end of the month to lead to a cold start of December. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Oh, and the EPO looks to stay negative. This actually saved us a few years back (during the middle of winter) when the PNA/AO/NAO was not very favorable. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: Knock Knock: Keep on knocking, but it ain't coming in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:19 PM, NC_hailstorm said: Did they upgrade the GFS lately?its scores lately have been trending better the last 30 or 40 days closing up the gap with the UKIE now for 2nd.Maybe it isn't a pile of junk anymore,we'll see. Check out day 5 and 6 scores. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html GFS back to a distant 3rd,Euro and Ukie dominate the top 2 spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Keep on knocking, but it ain't coming in! Oh it's coming cad style. Get the Chile and vegetable soup ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 It's a nice fall day today (cool, windy), but it looks like an extended cool spell is coming next week: Confidence diminishes heading into the late week, as a couple of different scenarios present themselves based on the speed and track of a stronger short wave racing into the Central Plains in the Thursday time frame. The chance of light rain will continue at least into Thursday, with better chances across the south, nearer the frontal zone. The GFS has an intriguing solution, digging the short wave into the northern GMEX which would prolong the chance of rain into the weekend as it would pump moisture up the coast. Finally, there is nothing in the pattern that would suggest scouring of the cool air, so highs Thursday through Saturday be mainly in the mid and upper 50s, after morning lows falling further inot the mid and upper 30s, with some freezing temperatures not out of the question by Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 2 hours ago, SN_Lover said: The ole 384 hour GFS Arctic blast, how've missed those! I'd expect 70s to occur around this time! I'm tickled pink at the thought of highs in the 50s coming this Wednesday , and some good rain chances! I'm sure come Tuesday , the rain chances will be down to 0! ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The ole 384 hour GFS Arctic blast, how've missed those! I'd expect 70s to occur around this time! I'm tickled pink at the thought of highs in the 50s coming this Wednesday , and some good rain chances! I'm sure come Tuesday , the rain chances will be down to 0! ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 I was thinking this is more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 Next Sunday's wedge looks pretty stout, Canadian even had some IP north of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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