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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

The indices look good for the long range. We may see our first frost/freezes start to show up on modeling in the coming days. lets hope we see this type of look starting in early December.

PNA = Looks to go solidly positive in LR

AO - Looks to go negative (by average) in the LR

NAO - Looks to go negative (by average) in the LR

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The indices look good for the long range. We may see our first frost/freezes start to show up on modeling in the coming days. lets hope we see this type of look starting in early December.

PNA = Looks to go solidly positive in LR

AO - Looks to go negative (by average) in the LR

NAO - Looks to go negative (by average) in the LR

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Man, I don't know! Time for Cold_Rain to fire up the Corvair and take the fantastic voyage on these indicies! They often looked good last year , only not to come to fruition, or align perfectly, but not behave like they should, so we will see! I'm excited about this week, after having Florida like weather last week!

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Man, I don't know! Time for Cold_Rain to fire up the Corvair and take the fantastic voyage on these indicies! They often looked good last year , only not to come to fruition, or align perfectly, but not behave like they should, so we will see! I'm excited about this week, after having Florida like weather last week!

Oh I totally agree; that's why I say it "looks" to go one way or another. But, we do have climatology on our side that support frost/freezes at the end of the month. It's going to happen, but the question is when. GFS has been showing a cold blast at the end of it's run with dew points solidly in the 20s. The problem is it has pushed this cold(est) air back a couple of times now (compared to other runs).    

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Oh I totally agree; that's why I say it "looks" to go one way or another. But, we do have climatology on our side that support frost/freezes at the end of the month. It's going to happen, but the question is when. GFS has been showing a cold blast at the end of it's run with dew points solidly in the 20s. The problem is it has pushed this cold(est) air back a couple of times now (compared to other runs).    

Heck even the middle of this upcoming week could get close to frost on elevated surfaces especially west of I95..it will be widely scattered and in the favored areas but I wouldnt be surprised to see some Thur morning...I know locally that PGV radiates really well its a low sandy spot near the river and it can get 4-5 degrees colder at the airport than in town easily....in these setups PGV is always colder than the GFS temp maps so I use the CMC which runs a bit colder and seems to verify better on nights with strong radiational cooling. 

gem_T2m_seus_17.thumb.png.cc0da5ae3d38e6afb28ea0b0f07cd225.png

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Heck even the middle of this upcoming week could get close to frost on elevated surfaces especially west of I95..it will be widely scattered and in the favored areas but I wouldnt be surprised to see some Thur morning...I know locally that PGV radiates really well its a low sandy spot near the river and it can get 4-5 degrees colder at the airport than in town easily....in these setups PGV is always colder than the GFS temp maps so I use the CMC which runs a bit colder and seems to verify better on nights with strong radiational cooling. 

gem_T2m_seus_17.thumb.png.cc0da5ae3d38e6afb28ea0b0f07cd225.png

Your right.....RAH afternoon discussion:

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

We may see lingering high clouds across the southeast CWA early Tue
along the mid level shear axis, but once that departs, rising
heights aloft from the west and strong cool surface high pressure
building in from the northwest will bring a dry, stable column.
Apart from mostly scattered flat diurnal cumulus clouds, skies
should be relatively cloud free during this period. The center of
the surface high will move into the Mid Atlantic region Wed before
stalling out over the central and southern Appalachians, where it
will sit well into next weekend, anchored by a building mid level
anticyclone over the Southeast. The high will modify late in the
week, with the initially low thicknesses Tue (30-35 m below normal)
recovering to near normal by Thu before rising to 10-15 m above
normal Fri-Sun. Expect highs in the mid 60s to around 70 Tue, and we
should see some gusty winds from the NE for at least the first half
of the day. Tue night will be the chilliest, with outlying areas
likely to drop into the mid-upper 30s, and some patchy frost not out
of the question. Urban areas and locations across the southeast CWA
should drop to around 40 to the lower 40s. Readings will then climb
a couple degrees each day, with highs around 70 to the lower 70s
Wed, mid 70s Thu, and upper 70s to around 80 Fri/Sat, with perhaps
some lower 80s Sun. Lows Wed night in the 40s to around 50 will rise
to be solidly in the 50s by Sun morning. -GIH

&&
 

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JoshM

JoshM

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Man, I don't know! Time for Cold_Rain to fire up the Corvair and take the fantastic voyage on these indicies! They often looked good last year , only not to come to fruition, or align perfectly, but not behave like they should, so we will see! I'm excited about this week, after having Florida like weather last week!

After last weeks swamp weather, anything else is preferable.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Shortest long range discussion I've seen in a while... 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...  

The long term forecast is on track. Dry high pressure will remain 
entrenched across the region throughout the long term forecast 
period. Seasonably cool temperatures with lows mainly in the 40s and 
highs near 70 will gradually warm through the week with lows 
reaching the 50s and highs in the upper 70s on Sunday.
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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Agreed, or this (one of the best 500 mb anomaly maps ever)!  Happy Halloween!

gem_z500a_namer_41.thumb.png.724690e8ca09a94c5254aa35eb94d530.png

It is the classic Symmetrical Boogie Man pattern.  When it occurs in October, it portends an unsettled 1-2 week period, with a sharp reversal shortly thereafter.  This tends to create angst among winter weather enthusiasts, as a late season Indian Summer-type regime typically soon follows.  Its name is derived from its notable features as well as its tendency to occur near Halloween.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Looks like a phase with two pieces of energy cutting off somewhere over the mid-atlantic,resulting in crashing heights.

Yeah the phase is right over us pretty much. The trough comes down with a piece of energy underneath the trough until the trough sharpens as it rolls into our area. That even might give us our first taste of snow here in the mountains. 

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