wncsnow Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 49 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: She's a beaut Clark! Is the Euro onboard? Not really.. has most of the precip to the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 Hopefully , a rainy weekend will materialize, from the tropical gyre in the gulf! Closing in on 1 month without 1 drop of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Hopefully , a rainy weekend will materialize, from the tropical gyre in the gulf! Closing in on 1 month without 1 drop of rain! I'm right with you. During the last couple of weeks, there has been a couple of storms around my backyard but nothing for me (dry!!!). 6z GFS for the next 10 days (looks like a couple of storms/waves during the 5-10 day period): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 Last nights EURO came around to a heavy rain event especially for Western NC/SC. 2 inches plus for most and some areas on the Blue Ridge with 4 to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 12Z Euro shows a tropical system (perhaps hurricane) making landfall in FL panhandle and giving much of the SE much needed rain...4-6 inches for much of WNC (even has 6 to 8 inches for some!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 RAH this afternoon: Too early for the all important QFP with certainty, but the outlook based on model choices/blends suggest 1-2 inches possible, with higher totals especially if/when there is a TC to deal with along with the strong front in the Sunday through Tuesday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: 12Z Euro shows a tropical system (perhaps hurricane) making landfall in FL panhandle and giving much of the SE much needed rain...4-6 inches for much of WNC (even has 6 to 8 inches for some!) Perfect track to bring us rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Brad Panovich Meteorologist 1 hr · This is looking very wet late Sunday into Monday. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Something to look forward to next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 EURO shows a cat 2 hurricane at least at landfall in FL panhandle tracks it right up into Western SC/NC... Should be some nice gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 ^^^Sure does. And consequently has temps cooler by next Wednesday compared to the GFS. 12z euro 850 temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: ^^^Sure does. And consequently has temps cooler by next Wednesday compared to the GFS. 12z euro 850 temps: Should be frost in a lot of WNC if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Should be frost in a lot of WNC if that happens It's definitely time for the higher elevations to see frost/freezes. Even lower elevations can start looking for those first mornings with "frost on the pumpkins". I think RDUs earliest freeze is around October 3rd. Of course frost doesn't need official (5ft above ground) freezing temps to occur; just give us some mid/upper 30s and clear calm nights...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 00Z GFS looks nice mid Oct...still average first frost IMBY isn't until last week of Oct..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Rain wise, the 6z GFS looks a little better for more areas of NC (except the SE portions along with coastal SC): Seven day totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 10 hours ago, FallsLake said: Rain wise, the 6z GFS looks a little better for more areas of NC (except the SE portions along with coastal SC): Seven day totals: 12z is starting to show a dry slot in the upstate... Stop me if you've heard this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 May as well be a winter storm. But right now I'd take any precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, JoshM said: 12z is starting to show a dry slot in the upstate... Stop me if you've heard this before 18z has less of that hole. It shows less qpf for western areas but more overall coverage across the SE (1-2"). Taking from the rich and spreading it among the poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: 18z has less of that hole. It shows less qpf for western areas but more overall coverage across the SE (1-2"). Taking from the rich and spreading it among the poor. Nate is prepping us for winter, since the Low is pretty much an apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 12z Euro did a flip in the longer range and keeps 590+ dm ridge over the eastern US basically from Sunday to Sunday. Global temps are already very warm and Arctic is starting to look like last fall, possibly worse. I'm wondering if we aren't going to set some all-time records again this winter. I'm not so much worried about apps runners as I am about avoiding extreme drought and having monthly positive anomalies below +8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Based on current forecasts, including CFS, this will probably be the warmest October ever here. That would make three warmest ever months in one year. Oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Looks like we may have a brief respite of at or below normal temps around day 8-10, per GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Another week of 80s coming up and blown rain chances, I love summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Another week of 80s coming up and blown rain chances, I love summer! We had some rain today, at least. Hopefully, the winter will do the opposite of what October is doing. But I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: We had some rain today, at least. Hopefully, the winter will do the opposite of what October is doing. But I doubt it. My unfounded fear is that it will be warm in October, turn cold for November, and then turn warm in December which will then lock in for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: My unfounded fear is that it will be warm in October, turn cold for November, and then turn warm in December which will then lock in for the winter. Yeah that's probably true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 CFS stays pretty warm for November, across most of North America. It'll just be warm October, warm November and warm December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 12 hours ago, WidreMann said: CFS stays pretty warm for November, across most of North America. It'll just be warm October, warm November and warm December. A warm October is not a bad thing... It has been a precursor to a cold winter in times past. November is the month I am more interested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 LOL...holy smokes...literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Take heart, Pack. 348 bringeth the goods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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