drfranklin Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Predicted high of 89 today with noticeable humidity - feels like August - does anyone know when the first "Fall" front will sweep this swamp-like weather out (at least in the upper Southeast)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, drfranklin said: Predicted high of 89 today with noticeable humidity - feels like August - does anyone know when the first "Fall" front will sweep this swamp-like weather out (at least in the upper Southeast)? It's going to be a while, but look for one in the 10-15 day timeframe after Maria moves out into the North Atlantic and a ridge goes up out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, griteater said: It's going to be a while, but look for one in the 10-15 day timeframe after Maria moves out into the North Atlantic and a ridge goes up out west 6z GFS says the day 8/9 time period. Dewpoints at hour 210: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, drfranklin said: Predicted high of 89 today with noticeable humidity - feels like August - does anyone know when the first "Fall" front will sweep this swamp-like weather out (at least in the upper Southeast)? It's felt like fall for the past month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: It's felt like fall for the past month This weather has been absolutely fantastic here in the mountains. Highs in the 70s and low to mid 50s for lows. our lowest low for the season has been 42 degrees already. Our lowest high was 51 degrees during Irma. Very nice. Sure it has warmed up but pretty benign really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: It's felt like fall for the past month Yeah especially around when Irma came trough. Had record lows set in Atlanta. It was glorious and I pretty much already marked that one as the first fall front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, Met1985 said: This weather has been absolutely fantastic here in the mountains. Highs in the 70s and low to mid 50s for lows. our lowest low for the season has been 42 degrees already. Our lowest high was 51 degrees during Irma. Very nice. Sure it has warmed up but pretty benign really. that weather sounds fantastic! but for us in elevations < 1000 feet, the past 10 days have been quite warm/humid - the SC Midlands will be in the low 90's today! Irma was great in Upstate SC - highs in the 50's with rain - I contemplated turning our fireplace on! Now, it's been MUCH warmer in the past 10 days with stagnant weather/little rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, drfranklin said: that weather sounds fantastic! but for us in elevations < 1000 feet, the past 10 days have been quite warm/humid - the SC Midlands will be in the low 90's today! Irma was great in Upstate SC - highs in the 50's with rain - I contemplated turning our fireplace on! Now, it's been MUCH warmer in the past 10 days with stagnant weather/little rain Yeah the weather out of the mountains are vastly different than our surrounding areas. As Grit and others have stated we have a bit of time before we cool back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 This map covers September temperature departures from Sep 1-20 PLUS the 7 day GFS forecast...close to normal when viewing the SE as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: This map covers September temperature departures from Sep 1-20 PLUS the 7 day GFS forecast...close to normal when viewing the SE as a whole Yeah not bad at all. The NE is cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 East coast trough returns around day 6/7,Euro looks like a nice cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Big cool down coming starting next Friday. High's mid 70's low's near 60 for the weekend and following week. Gonna be a nice change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 46 minutes ago, yotaman said: Big cool down coming starting next Friday. High's mid 70's low's near 60 for the weekend and following week. Gonna be a nice change. Need rain! It's always fun going into the fall, our driest time of year, with a deficit of 10" plus and not a drop of rain since Irma , and no real shot of it in the next 10-15 days! Oh , and the 2 week stretch of upper 80s and low 90s, is helping tremendously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Need rain! It's always fun going into the fall, our driest time of year, with a deficit of 10" plus and not a drop of rain since Irma , and no real shot of it in the next 10-15 days! Oh , and the 2 week stretch of upper 80s and low 90s, is helping tremendously! Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 26 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Ouch. That's awesome! If it was a snow map showing me gettin 2 ft of snow, it wouldn't come close to verifying ! But this will happen with 110% assurance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 The AccuWeather outlook calls for no rain until possibly October 21. Praying the models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Not loving the GFS from earlier. Shows quick hit cool downs from next weekend through hour 384, but a lot of warmth and overall troughiness in West. Cool weather earlier was such a cruel tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 This is as close to a dry season as we get here, late Sept into early Nov is the driest time of the year on average...and those months still average 3" of precip. I will take all the dry we can get so the skeeters wont be horrible come opening day of deer season in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 3 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Not loving the GFS from earlier. Shows quick hit cool downs from next weekend through hour 384, but a lot of warmth and overall troughiness in West. Cool weather earlier was such a cruel tease. Just getting our winter pattern locked in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 4 hours ago, downeastnc said: This is as close to a dry season as we get here, late Sept into early Nov is the driest time of the year on average...and those months still average 3" of precip. I will take all the dry we can get so the skeeters wont be horrible come opening day of deer season in a few weeks. Skeeters are horrible right now. Need some cold weather to get rid of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, yotaman said: Skeeters are horrible right now. Need some cold weather to get rid of them. Best chance is from 5 to 6 am on 1/13/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Just getting our winter pattern locked in! Warm in the east and cool in the west is the official weather pattern of the continental US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 The CFS keeps the US warm into December, but after that it shows near normal or even below normal. It's been consistent on this. Not saying that we'll have a rockin' February. It does seem like the bad pattern may just be a fall thing, which is a very La Nina-esque scenario. This is looking to be a moderate Nina, so that would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 9 hours ago, WidreMann said: The CFS keeps the US warm into December, but after that it shows near normal or even below normal. It's been consistent on this. Not saying that we'll have a rockin' February. It does seem like the bad pattern may just be a fall thing, which is a very La Nina-esque scenario. This is looking to be a moderate Nina, so that would make sense. I'll take my chances with a moderate nina. 2007/2008 was not a great year (a few small events). But we've had some blockbuster/memorable years as well: 1999/2000 had our Carolina Crusher storm and 2010/2011 had the Christmas storm. Even 1998/1999 had a Christmas eve ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Looks like drought conditions starting for central NC...with potential mod Nina coming this could get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 13 hours ago, WidreMann said: The CFS keeps the US warm into December, but after that it shows near normal or even below normal. It's been consistent on this. Not saying that we'll have a rockin' February. It does seem like the bad pattern may just be a fall thing, which is a very La Nina-esque scenario. This is looking to be a moderate Nina, so that would make sense. Fab feb delayed but not denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 3 hours ago, FallsLake said: I'll take my chances with a moderate nina. 2007/2008 was not a great year (a few small events). But we've had some blockbuster/memorable years as well: 1999/2000 had our Carolina Crusher storm and 2010/2011 had the Christmas storm. Even 1998/1999 had a Christmas eve ice storm. Seems like the -ENSO's have been better lately then +ENSO's based purely on snow events over past 30 years. I prefer nina...atleast if it doesn't snow it should be warm. Even as bad as the bust was last January atleast it torched the rest of the winter. Snowy -ENSO: 2014, 2011, 2009, 2002, 2000, 1996, 1989 Snowy +ENSO: 2015, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 15 hours ago, jburns said: Best chance is from 5 to 6 am on 1/13/18. LOL, you are probably correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Lol...cfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol...cfs Can't forecast sh...well, anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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