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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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8 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Cold press isn't as good as 18z...don't think we're gonna like the end result here...

 

6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

more moisture at 165 than 18z for sure out towards tx and la

 

3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

much better run, colder in nc, snow rdu north at 177hr it looks like on the instant maps.

 

2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

SER starting to flex its muscles at 168 :yikes:

Anyone else see a pattern here?

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Double high at 162 becomes one at 168 (1033). It is sliding East and is a pretty good latitude, however, it does not seem to be strong enough to push the cold further South. Snow line form N Mississippi to Asheville, but never drops below that. High camping out around Ohio at 186/192, but weakening to 1031, then sliding to Penn at 198. This is a no go for most below I-40. Need that High stronger and SER just too strong. This has been the pattern all Fall. 

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8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Isn't there a mid Atlantic thread for VA people??

I'm so over this and not even sure why I'm bothering with this again.

va.jpg

4 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said:

Thankyou for being real with it being a light event other people are taking it out of proportion and don't understand snow/ice totals. This looks like a light event and we don't need it to trend warmer.

You're welcome. The only analysis welcome here is analysis that sensationalizes snow. I don't know as much as others, but I know how to compare two model runs to each other and see what's what.

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Thoughts:

00z GFS: Looked decent overall with the cold press, but wave came out quicker than ideal...hard to complain about that run at this stage though

18z GFS Para: Cold press is even better than the 00z GFS, but it has a more consolidated wave that is slower to come out of the SW and it's wintry mix to ice to rain.  Cutter into the Ohio Valley with solid high over the MA and NE, but retreating off the coast

00z CMC: Canadian hasn't had a single good model run which is.....weird

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