downeastnc Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 Big fronts clearing the coast this time of year will make tropical season tricky, the fronts stalling offshore and washing out could lead to some homegrown action off the SE coast and the northern GOM. The big fronts could also turn out any storms approaching the SE coast..... There is no real temps over 90 in the latest GFS run until the last few days of the run and even then its barely pushing 90, most of the run is at or below normal with temps in the 80's, all in all not bad considering it could easily be mid to upper 90's every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 06z on 7/31. I'm not gonna hold my breath on this, seeing as 2 weeks ago we were supposed to have 5-8" for the 2 week period. 1.21" this weekend, followed by Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 3.48 " and Convective: 2.29 " 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 4.69 " and Convective: 3.3 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Deja vu 06z GFS - showers/storms every day from 8/4 through 8/17 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 6.12 " and Convective: 4.9 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 35 minutes ago, Solak said: Deja vu 06z GFS - showers/storms every day from 8/4 through 8/17 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 6.12 " and Convective: 4.9 " It shows a persistent eastern US trough through the 16 day period. If that is correct, then the higher precip has more validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Too early to start thinking about early Winter projections for NC Piedmont/Triad? Brand new to Winston from Washington, DC. Expecting more IP/ZR than I've ever seen! (Hope I'm wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 2 hours ago, CARDC79 said: Too early to start thinking about early Winter projections for NC Piedmont/Triad? Brand new to Winston from Washington, DC. Expecting more IP/ZR than I've ever seen! (Hope I'm wrong) Too early to start thinking about winter? Haha never! In fact, you're late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Too early to start thinking about winter? Haha never! In fact, you're late to the party. Welcome to the Carolinas ! If you think DC winters suck, your in for a treat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 For Solak: This heatwave sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Yep! 06z got wetterer! 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 8.12 " and Convective: 7.94 " PS - Poor Shetley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 On 7/31/2017 at 11:55 AM, Solak said: 06z on 7/31. I'm not gonna hold my breath on this, seeing as 2 weeks ago we were supposed to have 5-8" for the 2 week period. 1.21" this weekend, followed by Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 3.48 " and Convective: 2.29 " 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 4.69 " and Convective: 3.3 " yep...i got screwed too during that last wet pattern. Seems everyone around me did ok but i Hardly picked up a thing. Storms divided, skipped, jumped, reversed course, and committed suicide to avoid me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, Lookout said: yep...i got screwed too during that last wet pattern. Seems everyone around me did ok but i Hardly picked up a thing. Storms divided, skipped, jumped, reversed course, and committed suicide to avoid me. You weren't, by chance, vacationing in Jonesville, were you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Solak said: Yep! 06z got wetterer! 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 8.12 " and Convective: 7.94 " PS - Poor Shetley. That's good , unless your name starts with J and ends in Shetley! Does look like a wetter pattern coming up, hope we don't screw it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 GFS keeps showing all this rain, only to kick the can down the road every morning I check. Looks dry here through Sunday now into next week. I want be mowing this weekend thats for sure. Been bone dry in the ole back yard the past few weeks in combo with the little 2-3 week death ridge extreme heat wave. That being said , we are skating through summer pretty good this year compared to some of the past recent ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Columbia, SC # of days 95 degrees or higher May 1 - Aug 2, 2016: 43 May 1 - Aug 2, 2017: 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 I'm ready! When's all the rain gonna start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm ready! When's all the rain gonna start? RAH this afternoon... The models continue to trend drier with the cold frontal passage Friday night, likely due to the poor diurnal timing and best forcing lifting away from the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 OK, so complete shot in the dark here, but I figured what the heck. My dad, sister, and I have a bucket list trip down to Chile in about 3 weeks, with about half of the time spent skiing in the Andes. The only problem, there is a serious shortage of snow (we southerners can relate, right?)! Any idea on any good sites/forums/forecasts for snow (or weather in general) in South America, specifically in Chile? I'm struggling to find anything of substance on the interwebs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Next 3 months will be more exciting then the following 3-4...so its cane tracking time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Next 3 months will be more exciting then the following 3-4...so its cane tracking time. Saw where Lowes is running an early sale on pre-emergent Tropics about to turn active. Better not ruin my beach trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 5 hours ago, SnowDeac said: OK, so complete shot in the dark here, but I figured what the heck. My dad, sister, and I have a bucket list trip down to Chile in about 3 weeks, with about half of the time spent skiing in the Andes. The only problem, there is a serious shortage of snow (we southerners can relate, right?)! Any idea on any good sites/forums/forecasts for snow (or weather in general) in South America, specifically in Chile? I'm struggling to find anything of substance on the interwebs. https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/chile/snow-depth-in/20170819-1800z.html not the highest resolution, but you can select the region, unlike most model pages Alternatively: https://www.windy.com/overlays?snowcover,2017-08-12-18,-32.436,-71.741,6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 With what the models are spitting out for the next 10-15 days, June-Aug has a good chance to average BN for the east/SE. And I guess maybe the plains too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 58 minutes ago, packbacker said: With what the models are spitting out for the next 10-15 days, June-Aug has a good chance to average BN for the east/SE. And I guess maybe the plains too. I'm surprised it hasn't been clearly below normal already. It's "felt" below normal for June and July to me in CLT. It's been a very nice summer IMO. Plenty of rain/storms and not many upper 90s for highs. Haven't hit 100 yet either. I remember some discussion that this was going to be a blistering summer in the spring....turns out summer talk is no better than winter talk! Very nice summer. Let's see if we can pull a nice cold winter together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 37 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I'm surprised it hasn't been clearly below normal already. It's "felt" below normal for June and July to me in CLT. It's been a very nice summer IMO. Plenty of rain/storms and not many upper 90s for highs. Haven't hit 100 yet either. I remember some discussion that this was going to be a blistering summer in the spring....turns out summer talk is no better than winter talk! Very nice summer. Let's see if we can pull a nice cold winter together. It was just so dang hot the last 2 summers in comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 54 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I'm surprised it hasn't been clearly below normal already. It's "felt" below normal for June and July to me in CLT. It's been a very nice summer IMO. Plenty of rain/storms and not many upper 90s for highs. Haven't hit 100 yet either. I remember some discussion that this was going to be a blistering summer in the spring....turns out summer talk is no better than winter talk! Very nice summer. Let's see if we can pull a nice cold winter together. this 16 minutes ago, griteater said: It was just so dang hot the last 2 summers in comparison and this, curious to see how it turns out officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 On 8/3/2017 at 8:42 AM, NCSNOW said: GFS keeps showing all this rain, only to kick the can down the road every morning I check. Looks dry here through Sunday now into next week. Yes; i have been seeing that, it sure does seem like it will eventually pick up quite a bit. Thankfully the extra time in between this forecasted longer period of rainand it actually happening are making it so that it will be more interesting/surreal when it does actually get here, and I think somehow very relaxing too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 Sogginess --- delayed but not denied? 18z 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 7.82 " and Convective: 7.5 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 Well I usually wait till winter to chime in and stick my foot in my mouth, but it's raining in the ole backyard. I didn't wash the car today but was heading over to the high school football practice, midnight madness because Saturday is the first day they can hit per nchsaa. Have to LOL at lady luck sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 could be a hectic setup for the next 7 to 10 days. NC area. scattered heavy rains / storms about every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 44 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: could be a hectic setup for the next 7 to 10 days. NC area. scattered heavy rains / storms about every day. It's looked like " wet" patterns were setting up a few times the last month,only to not pan out. Hopefully we score in this projected pattern, looks good now. We desperately need it in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Aug looking pretty tame so far temp wise, maybe a few days that push 90 but low to mid 80's for the most part.....very seasonal temps for most of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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