Solak Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Our potentially wet week (40-50% chances) isn't looking so good anymore. Tues: however coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered and confined largely to the south. Wed: Convection will once again be possible during the aft/eve, mainly across the south but the weather could remain largely dry through the period. Thur: Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Solak said: Our potentially wet week (40-50% chances) isn't looking so good anymore. Tues: however coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered and confined largely to the south. Wed: Convection will once again be possible during the aft/eve, mainly across the south but the weather could remain largely dry through the period. Thur: Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day Front pushing too far south! Taking all the moisture away! Sadly, that never happens in winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Front pushing too far south! Taking all the moisture away! Sadly, that never happens in winter! Yep! We've gone from 5-8" to this... 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 1.03 " and Convective: 0.87 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 The cool down is looking nice. 6z GFS at day 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: The cool down is looking nice. 6z GFS at day 5: Interesting that it shows a blob of warmth in the Atlanta metro and cooler air surrounding in every direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Interesting that it shows a blob of warmth in the Atlanta metro and cooler air surrounding in every direction. Get used to it with the new version. Notice Dallas, Houston and several in Florida including Lake Okeechobee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 12z GFS dew points for day 5 (nice for this time of year): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 WE are looking at highs in the low to mid 80's and lows in the upper 60's from Sat-Tues. Gonna be a nice break from the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Today's EURO run was a little more impressive with the deep trough than the previous two days.It would be astounding to get a high around 80-82 in late July with partly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Great ! Low DPs to go with my .33 of rain the last 15+ days! #TENDERBOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 2 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Today's EURO run was a little more impressive with the deep trough than the previous two days.It would be astounding to get a high around 80-82 in late July with partly cloudy skies. Don't get carried away. 80-82 is only like 7 degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 41 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Don't get carried away. 80-82 is only like 7 degrees below normal. I dunno look at it this way the min max for most of us in that time frame is upper 70's and that's probably on a cloudy rainy day......so to only be 3-4 degree from that with sun and no rain is pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 3 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Don't get carried away. 80-82 is only like 7 degrees below normal. And upper 90s is about the same above normal. Variation is much less in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 18 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Don't get carried away. 80-82 is only like 7 degrees below normal. It is all dependent on the dew point. If the dew point stays in the 60's, it will feel wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 If we don't score any rain Thursday or Friday, who cares about the cool down, my grass will be dead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 High temperature departures since May have been near normal in the Carolinas and a little below normal in Bama and S GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Nice job Grit as always. Let's see where this goes over the next few months. 1st thing I'm interested in is to see how much heat mother nature takes out of the Atlantic basin via way of tropical storms. Right now we have alot of warm ssts globally but that will change alot over the next 60 to 90 days now that cane season is here. Seeing alot of neutral signals so it may be harder to identify which emerges or combination that takes over December and drives the pattern in regards to long wave troughs,5h etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Looks like a full blown Noreaster crawling up the coast on the EURO and UKIE at day 2,don't see that much in late July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 4 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Looks like a full blown Noreaster crawling up the coast on the EURO and UKIE at day 2,don't see that much in late July. Going to be a good weekend to finish my fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Wow said: Going to be a good weekend to finish my fence. High of 81-83 with NW winds gusting to 20 mph in the forecast,you take that anytime in summer. Still think the forecast can tick a bit cooler,we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbyC Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 On 7/25/2017 at 7:20 AM, Solak said: Our potentially wet week (40-50% chances) isn't looking so good anymore. Tues: however coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered and confined largely to the south. Wed: Convection will once again be possible during the aft/eve, mainly across the south but the weather could remain largely dry through the period. Thur: Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day On 7/25/2017 at 9:07 AM, mackerel_sky said: Front pushing too far south! Taking all the moisture away! Sadly, that never happens in winter! Do you guys remember the Summer of 2013? From what I recall, that one was quite wet (though it was cooler than average). GSP got like over a foot of precipitation in July, and daytime high temps that month were well below average. Looking through the GSP history, Heavy Thunderstorms & Rain were listed frequently on various days. The month of June that year ended at about 9 inches of precipitation. In a way, I felt like Summer that year was a no-show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 1 hour ago, RobbyC said: Do you guys remember the Summer of 2013? From what I recall, that one was quite wet (though it was cooler than average). GSP got like over a foot of precipitation in July, and daytime high temps that month were well below average. Looking through the GSP history, Heavy Thunderstorms & Rain were listed frequently on various days. The month of June that year ended at about 9 inches of precipitation. In a way, I felt like Summer that year was a no-show. You sure that wasn't summer of 2012? I remember it being constantly wet, with lots of big rain events. This " cool" snap looks exciting next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbyC Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: You sure that wasn't summer of 2012? I remember it being constantly wet, with lots of big rain events. This " cool" snap looks exciting next week! It was 2013. Here's a page about the high amount of rainfall: U.S. Southeast experiencing extreme rainfall in 2013 In 2012, we had that Heatwave from end of June to start of July. GSP hit 107 degrees F on July 1st. This year's Summer appears to have similarities to 2013 in some ways with the troughing in the East and ridging in the West except the troughing appears to be weaker than it was in 2013. That is, the troughs haven't dug as far South as it did then. The fronts also seemed to have moved faster this year compared to that year where they stalled often. This is probably what led to the really high rainfall totals that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 This is about as good as it can get for this time of year: <from RAH> .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday... 00Z guidance has begun to diverge with regard to the evolution of an anomalously deep upper level low and attendant surface low invof the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend. The 00Z ECMWF is now quite progressive, with the upper wave/sfc low tracking offshore the DELMARVA late Sat night/early Sun and a dry/subsident NW flow prevailing Sun through mid-week. The 00Z GFS/NAM continue to indicate a solution in which the upper level low stalls/meanders along the Carolina/Mid-Atlantic coast for the remainder of the weekend. Regardless, expect an ongoing chance for showers/storms along/ahead of a cold front associated with the deepening sfc low over the DELMARVA through mid-day Sat as the front progresses SE through central NC. Expect a drying trend from W-E Sat aft/eve intoSat night, though drying may be delayed and a small chance for showers may exist in the Coastal Plain Sat night/Sun if the GFS/NAM solutions verify. Expect below normal temps associated with breezy northerly flow/cold advection (yes, legit CAA in July) in the wake of the front Sat afternoon into Sunday. If GFS/NAM/ECMWF forecast soundings are any indication, it should feel more like September than late July this weekend, especially on Sunday when dewpoints areprogged to fall into the 50s west of Hwy 1. Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s on Sat, upper 70s to lower 80s on Sun, and lows in the lower/mid 60s, perhaps upper 50s across portions of the N/NW Piedmont Sun night. -Vincent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Bless God for early Autumn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 Today's EURO is bringing down an even deeper,colder trough for day 7,that could put high's in the 70's to 80 if it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 53 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Today's EURO is bringing down an even deeper,colder trough for day 7,that could put high's in the 70's to 80 if it's correct. Just saw that. I say keep it coming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 Love reading RAH discussion from last night: <part of the discussion> Expect to see more clouds than sun today with the onset of strongCAA during what is normally the warmest part of the day resulting in falling temperatures across the northern half of the area, indeed a rarity for late July. Highs ranging from mid 70s north to mid 80s SW. Additionally, with the onset of the strong CAA, northerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph will develop along with lowering ceilings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 That might be the deepest,non tropical trough I've ever seen before for early August on the EURO today at day 7.Have to see if that verifies but that could easily challenge some low temp records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Hasta La Vista Summer Major cool shot at hottest time of the year, possible record cool in plains within coming 10 days. Not last yr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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