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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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Our potentially wet week (40-50% chances)  isn't looking so good anymore.

Tues: however coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered and confined largely to the south.

Wed: Convection will once again be possible during the aft/eve, mainly across the south but the weather could remain largely dry through the period.

Thur: Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day

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1 hour ago, Solak said:

Our potentially wet week (40-50% chances)  isn't looking so good anymore.

Tues: however coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered and confined largely to the south.

Wed: Convection will once again be possible during the aft/eve, mainly across the south but the weather could remain largely dry through the period.

Thur: Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day

Front pushing too far south! Taking all the moisture away! Sadly, that never happens in winter! :(

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19 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Interesting that it shows a blob of warmth in the Atlanta metro and cooler air surrounding in every direction. 

Get used to it with the new version. Notice Dallas, Houston and several in Florida including Lake Okeechobee.

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41 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Don't get carried away. 80-82 is only like 7 degrees below normal. 

I dunno look at it this way the min max for most of us in that time frame is upper 70's and that's probably on a cloudy rainy day......so to only be 3-4 degree from that with sun and no rain is pretty darn good.

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Nice job Grit as always. Let's see where this goes over the next few months. 1st thing I'm interested in is to see how much heat mother nature takes out of the Atlantic basin via way of tropical storms. Right now we have alot of warm ssts globally but that will change alot over the next 60 to 90 days now that cane season is here.

Seeing alot of neutral signals so it may be harder to identify which emerges or combination that takes over December and drives the pattern in regards to long wave troughs,5h etc

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On 7/25/2017 at 7:20 AM, Solak said:

Our potentially wet week (40-50% chances)  isn't looking so good anymore.

Tues: however coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered and confined largely to the south.

Wed: Convection will once again be possible during the aft/eve, mainly across the south but the weather could remain largely dry through the period.

Thur: Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day

 

On 7/25/2017 at 9:07 AM, mackerel_sky said:

Front pushing too far south! Taking all the moisture away! Sadly, that never happens in winter! :(

Do you guys remember the Summer of 2013? From what I recall, that one was quite wet (though it was cooler than average). ;)

GSP got like over a foot of precipitation in July, and daytime high temps that month were well below average. Looking through the GSP history, Heavy Thunderstorms & Rain were listed frequently on various days. The month of June that year ended at about 9 inches of precipitation.

In a way, I felt like Summer that year was a no-show.

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1 hour ago, RobbyC said:

 

Do you guys remember the Summer of 2013? From what I recall, that one was quite wet (though it was cooler than average). ;)

GSP got like over a foot of precipitation in July, and daytime high temps that month were well below average. Looking through the GSP history, Heavy Thunderstorms & Rain were listed frequently on various days. The month of June that year ended at about 9 inches of precipitation.

In a way, I felt like Summer that year was a no-show.

You sure that wasn't summer of 2012? I remember it being constantly wet, with lots of big rain events. This " cool" snap looks exciting next week!

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

You sure that wasn't summer of 2012? I remember it being constantly wet, with lots of big rain events. This " cool" snap looks exciting next week!

It was 2013. Here's a page about the high amount of rainfall:

U.S. Southeast experiencing extreme rainfall in 2013

In 2012, we had that Heatwave from end of June to start of July. GSP hit 107 degrees F on July 1st. :o  

This year's Summer appears to have similarities to 2013 in some ways with the troughing in the East and ridging in the West except the troughing appears to be weaker than it was in 2013. That is, the troughs haven't dug as far South as it did then. The fronts also seemed to have moved faster this year compared to that year where they stalled often. This is probably what led to the really high rainfall totals that year.

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This is about as good as it can get for this time of year:

<from RAH>

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

00Z guidance has begun to diverge with regard to the evolution of an
anomalously deep upper level low and attendant surface low invof the
Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend. The 00Z ECMWF is now quite
progressive, with the upper wave/sfc low tracking offshore the
DELMARVA late Sat night/early Sun and a dry/subsident NW flow
prevailing Sun through mid-week. The 00Z GFS/NAM continue to
indicate a solution in which the upper level low stalls/meanders
along the Carolina/Mid-Atlantic coast for the remainder of the
weekend. Regardless, expect an ongoing chance for showers/storms
along/ahead of a cold front associated with the deepening sfc low
over the DELMARVA through mid-day Sat as the front progresses SE
through central NC. Expect a drying trend from W-E Sat aft/eve into
Sat night, though drying may be delayed and a small chance for
showers may exist in the Coastal Plain Sat night/Sun if the GFS/NAM
solutions verify. Expect below normal temps associated with breezy
northerly flow/cold advection (yes, legit CAA in July) in the wake
of the front Sat afternoon into Sunday. If GFS/NAM/ECMWF forecast
soundings are any indication, it should feel more like September
than late July this weekend
, especially on Sunday when dewpoints are
progged to fall into the 50s west of Hwy 1. Expect highs in the
upper 70s to lower/mid 80s on Sat, upper 70s to lower 80s on Sun,
and lows in the lower/mid 60s, perhaps upper 50s across portions of
the N/NW Piedmont Sun night
. -Vincent
 

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Love reading RAH discussion from last night:

<part of the discussion>

Expect to see more clouds than sun today with the onset of strong
CAA during what is normally the warmest part of the day resulting in
falling temperatures across the northern half of the area, indeed a
rarity for late July
. Highs ranging from mid 70s north to mid 80s
SW. Additionally, with the onset of the strong CAA, northerly wind
gusts of 20 to 25 mph will develop along with lowering ceilings.
 

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