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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted

Noticed this trend as well. Looks like the heat wave will be pretty short lived for most, 3-5 days then back to seasonal or even below. TWC has all 80s for the upstate after Tuesday. GSP plus 2.67 on rain for the month and nearly 7 over for the year so no problems there. Still have a few weeks to go but if this ends up being our hottest weather of the summer I'll take a repeat of this summer every year!

Well lol at the 18z GFS though, has the exact opposite in the long range with no front and 100+! We'll see what happens.

 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Noticed this trend as well. Looks like the heat wave will be pretty short lived for most, 3-5 days then back to seasonal or even below. TWC has all 80s for the upstate after Tuesday. GSP plus 2.67 on rain for the month and nearly 7 over for the year so no problems there. Still have a few weeks to go but if this ends up being our hottest weather of the summer I'll take a repeat of this summer every year!

Well lol at the 18z GFS though, has the exact opposite in the long range with no front and 100+! We'll see what happens.

 

The 18Z runs always seem to be the off run every day for whatever reason...00Z was in line with previous runs, and the CMC and Euro also show the cool off so this heat isnt going to lock in. The pattern does look dryer overall though but like you pointed out rainfall hasnt been a issue unless you live in Shetleys area apparently. 

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NC_hailstorm

NC_hailstorm

Posted
Posted

This is just me but I don't consider 95-96 degrees a heat wave but I've lived here my whole life,just part of living in North Carolina.Now if you was from say Cleveland where the average high there is around 80=83 in the hottest part of the summer,then yeah that might be hot to them.

Low heights move back in by Monday,it is being stubborn this year.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

This is just me but I don't consider 95-96 degrees a heat wave but I've lived here my whole life,just part of living in North Carolina.Now if you was from say Cleveland where the average high there is around 80=83 in the hottest part of the summer,then yeah that might be hot to them.

Low heights move back in by Monday,it is being stubborn this year.

Yeah I agree this is far from a legit heat wave but in the terms of how average this summer has been its the closest thing to a heat wave so far. Some places in the sandhills etc will flirt with 100 maybe. I don't expect to get much above 98 here and it will definitely be the hottest weather of the year. Again though if this ends up being the hottest stretch we have to deal with this summer then its been a good summer.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

This is just me but I don't consider 95-96 degrees a heat wave but I've lived here my whole life,just part of living in North Carolina.Now if you was from say Cleveland where the average high there is around 80=83 in the hottest part of the summer,then yeah that might be hot to them.

Low heights move back in by Monday,it is being stubborn this year.

Has been very east -coast- trough pattern this summer! We won't be able to buy a trough after November! 

But yeah, 3-4 days in a row of 5-8 degrees above normal, doesn't seem like a heatwave in my book!

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

An FYI for all the RADAR watchers... 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
219 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

...NWS Raleigh WSR-88D Radar Scheduled for Upgrade Next Week...
 
The National Weather Service Raleigh WSR-88D Doppler weather 
radar, KRAX, located in Clayton, NC, will be down for 
approximately four days beginning Monday, July 24, 2017, for 
technicians to install an important technological upgrade. 
 
During the outage, radar coverage should be available from  
adjacent NWS radar sites, including Blacksburg, VA (KFTX);  
Wakefield, VA (KAKQ); Newport/Morehead City, NC (KMHX);  
Wilmington, NC (KLTX); Columbia, SC (KCAE); Greenville-  
Spartanburg, SC (KGSP) as well as the Federal Aviation  
Administration Terminal Doppler Weather Radar in Raleigh, 
NC (TRDU).
 
A crew will install a new signal processor, which replaces obsolete  
technology, improves processing speed and data quality, provides  
added functionality, and supports IT security. 
 
This is the first of four major upgrades, known as the Service  
Life Extension Project (SLEP), planned over the next five years  
to replace and refurbish major components of the 20 year old WSR-  
88Ds and to keep the radars operational into the 2030s. The 150M 
investment is being made by the three organizations that 
operationally use these radars, the NOAA National Weather Service,
United States Air Force and Federal Aviation Administration. The 
other service life extension projects include refurbishing the 
transmitter, pedestal, and equipment shelters.
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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

NWS keeps bumping us down in the grids, now calling for a high of 95 Fri and 96 Sat/Sun and has us back at 89 by Wed....

 

MHX disco talks heavy rain next week according to the Euro possible...

Thursday Night through Sunday...19/12Z global model suite
remain in decent agreement with extending the west- central
upper ridge eastward while another upper ridge moves into the
western Atlantic. This pattern will lead to increasing temps
and humidity with below normal convective coverage through the
weekend. What activity there is should be diurnally driven in
the afternoon and early evenings although will have to be on
the outlook for possible upstream MCS development and possible
effects on this area, though will only continue advertising no
higher than a 20 pop through the weekend across interior zones.
19/12Z ECMWF/GFS/CMC in good agreement with low level
thicknesses 1425-1430 meters Friday and around 1435-1440 meters
Sat- Sun. This will support max temps easily reaching the mid
90s each day. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 70s,
critical Heat Index values AOA 105 degrees are likely from
Friday through Sunday.

Monday through Tuesday...Ensemble height fields indicate a
lowering of heights/thicknesses beginning as early as Monday,
and especially into Tuesday as elongated ridge gets suppressed
due to amplification of eastern CONUS long wave trough. This
will likely put an end to the very hot and humid pattern, and
lead to increasing shower/storm chances. The ECMWF is quite
moist as it is advertising layer mix ratios as high as 17 g/kg
with excellent streamline moisture convergence across the
region, indicating another potential heavy rain threat
developing

 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

This is from RDU for next week...enjoy it now cause you probably wont see this sentence used much after November.....

Sun-Wed: Above normal temps/humidity may persist into Sunday, though
chances for convection will also increase as cyclonic flow aloft
strengthens over/upstream of the Mid-Atlantic. With an unseasonably
complex synoptic pattern over the mid-latitudes, uncertainty
increases significantly by early/mid next week. At this time, will
indicate near normal temperatures and near climatological chances
for convection Mon-Wed, in assoc/w a synoptic pattern generally
characterized by ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over
the eastern CONUS.

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lookingnorth

lookingnorth

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

This is just me but I don't consider 95-96 degrees a heat wave but I've lived here my whole life,just part of living in North Carolina.Now if you was from say Cleveland where the average high there is around 80=83 in the hottest part of the summer,then yeah that might be hot to them.

Low heights move back in by Monday,it is being stubborn this year.

I'd much rather get into the 100s tho. Mid-upper 90s is boring and unpleasant with nothing to show for it.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

The overall runs looks like the pattern we are in of 3-4 hot days followed by 3-4 normal to below normal days is going to continue, as we get later in Aug if the SE ridge keeps moving back and forth like it is it could make or break a landfall for the SE coast.....this pattern makes me feel like there are going to be several storms make runs at us this year. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Solak said:

06Z Saturday 7/22 says Super Soaker! This is the new and improved GFS, right?

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 8.31 " and Convective: 6.83 "

What's cool (or warm) about the new GFS is the detailed temps for the urban areas. look at the 2m temp anomaly:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Urban heat island affect. Maybe one reason RAH jumped to place Wake County / Raleigh in an Excessive Heat Warning.

 

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

What's cool (or warm) about the new GFS is the detailed temps for the urban areas. look at the 2m temp anomaly:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Urban heat island affect. Maybe one reason RAH jumped to place Wake County / Raleigh in an Excessive Heat Warning.

 

They could have done that without models at all. It's not like it's not know that cities and suburbs are warmer and have all that pavement and concrete to contribute to it.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

They could have done that without models at all. It's not like it's not know that cities and suburbs are warmer and have all that pavement and concrete to contribute to it.

True, but it looks like the models also take into account overcast skies, precip, and wind speed which can affect the amount of urban heating (compare to rural).  

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

The least favorite month of the year for me is almost over. July is #12 on my list. June is #11 because I know we still have July and August  knocking on the door. August is #10. Would be #11, possibly 12 but it's time for Football practice to start and July/June are 10+months away. 

Maybe the Death Ridge want be making any more appearances this summer.

 

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NC_hailstorm

NC_hailstorm

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, WidreMann said:

The Euro trough isn't that exciting. It's barely below normal. But it will be a welcome respite and will keep anomalies this month from being too warm. Definitely won't beat 2012 thankfully.

I got a forecast of partly sunny and 83 next Monday for an early call,we'll see.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

I got a forecast of partly sunny and 83 next Monday for an early call,we'll see.

I'd love that here. It hasn't been that cool since June.

I'm real curious about this coastal low this weekend. GFS has backed off its fun solution at 12z, but it still keeps things cool for a while. CFS keeps us cool through mid-August. The same CFS that said below normal July...

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