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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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26 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The other board keeps showing cool maps. Don't know what to believe!

Depends on when those cool maps are for, after the heat the models have highs in the upper 70's low 80's across the Carolinas  ( thanks to the hurricane that it has slamming into central Florida ) 

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9 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Well it took until July 5th for Greensboro (pti) to hit the 90 degree mark this year. But its done so 4 times since then and today may be #5. 

Correct. GSP hit 90 for the tenth time today, it's summer high is 92. CLT hit 90 for the 14th time and has a high of 93. And even in a mild summer, CAE manages to have a hot time, reaching 90 for the 42nd time already with several 97s and 96s in the bank. Not bad for them as no 100s so far but lots of mid 90s. They haven't been below 73 since June 29th. RDU hit 90 for the 18th time with a high of 95. AVL high has been 88 so far.

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3 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Correct. GSP hit 90 for the tenth time today, it's summer high is 92. CLT hit 90 for the 14th time and has a high of 93. And even in a mild summer, CAE manages to have a hot time, reaching 90 for the 42nd time already with several 97s and 96s in the bank. Not bad for them as no 100s so far but lots of mid 90s. They haven't been below 73 since June 29th. RDU hit 90 for the 18th time with a high of 95. AVL high has been 88 so far.

We have hit 90 24 times so far at PGV, highest temp is only 94....average high this time of year is 90, we have only hit 100+ heat index like 6 times all year which is pretty good for us and we haven't hit a heat index over 104 yet.

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

We have hit 90 24 times so far at PGV, highest temp is only 94....average high this time of year is 90, we have only hit 100+ heat index like 6 times all year which is pretty good for us and we haven't hit a heat index over 104 yet.

All of this is about to change. It looks like the heat will be around for a while, with only a brief break or 2 here and there.

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4 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

The 6z GFS, especially the PARA will make jshetley very proud.  Widespread 100s for several days on end with little rain, later on in the run.  Looks like the tranquility of summer is over for a while.

The Para becomes the GFS next week I think. Of course their scores have been horrible as of late. 

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11 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

The 6z GFS, especially the PARA will make jshetley very proud.  Widespread 100s for several days on end with little rain, later on in the run.  Looks like the tranquility of summer is over for a while.

Its over done most likely, its done pretty horribly on the heat, but it is also the heart of summer so we should expect some days pushing 100. The GFS is also pretty wet for central and eastern NC but less out west in NC/SC and much of GA so they may see more heat than here.

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Its over done most likely, its done pretty horribly on the heat, but it is also the heart of summer so we should expect some days pushing 100. The GFS is also pretty wet for central and eastern NC but less out west in NC/SC and much of GA so they may see more heat than here.

That's northwest flow. Areas just east and south of the mountains will be dry while areas along and east of I-77 in NC will be fairly wet.  I fully expect at least D2, maybe D3 drought to be back in a big way by Sept 1 from ATL up through GSP and HKY. Gonna need a tropical system or 2 that track the right way to get really good rain over much of GA and western SC.

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48 minutes ago, jshetley said:

That's northwest flow. Areas just east and south of the mountains will be dry while areas along and east of I-77 in NC will be fairly wet.  I fully expect at least D2, maybe D3 drought to be back in a big way by Sept 1 from ATL up through GSP and HKY. Gonna need a tropical system or 2 that track the right way to get really good rain over much of GA and western SC.

I fully expect severe drought in the upstate by mid August! Especially with a developing Nino! Dust bowl type stuff, probably a few locust swarms! ;)

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We'll see what happens but the GFS almost always overdoes the heat, heck its showed 100+ a few times for GSP already and hasn't even been close. Eventually it will be correct but that will be the exception. I can see the forecast warming over the next few days, but right now just looks like typical mid summer stuff. And yes, it's a little drier than this time last month, but I'll take it, still well above for the year. Any drought / mega heat predictions at this point are comical. Hard to ask for a better May - mid July than what we've had.

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2 hours ago, jshetley said:

That's northwest flow. Areas just east and south of the mountains will be dry while areas along and east of I-77 in NC will be fairly wet.  I fully expect at least D2, maybe D3 drought to be back in a big way by Sept 1 from ATL up through GSP and HKY. Gonna need a tropical system or 2 that track the right way to get really good rain over much of GA and western SC.

Meh not much chance of that....there is barely any D0 anywhere in the SE, D2/D3 is severe to extreme drought conditions and even if it barely rains between now and Sept 1 water levels wouldn't fall enough to get back to those kind of levels. The overall pattern also isn't a NW flow pattern at all, winds in your area will be SW most of the time with this ridge placement....I will take a Bermuda based ridge over a Texas based ridge any day. Its gonna rain a lot over the SE this weekend into next week as well as yet more troughs push into the area. AS long as we don't see the Texas death ridge take over this summer will be as typical a SE summer as it gets.

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17 hours ago, jshetley said:

That's northwest flow. Areas just east and south of the mountains will be dry while areas along and east of I-77 in NC will be fairly wet.  I fully expect at least D2, maybe D3 drought to be back in a big way by Sept 1 from ATL up through GSP and HKY. Gonna need a tropical system or 2 that track the right way to get really good rain over much of GA and western SC.

Give it up already. You have been predicting major drought since this past winter and all you have had is rain, rain, and more rain. I seriously don't think the pattern will change that drastically this month or the next.

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On 7/14/2017 at 0:35 AM, downeastnc said:

Saturday looks pretty wet over the Carolinas at least......lots of cape and low shear means slow movers too, so those that do get in on it will get a lot.

Never got 1 drop here. Nothing now for 15 days. Same old pattern from the last 2 summers is here to stay until at least September, if not October. Meaning some places will get 10-15 inches of rain before I get 1 more drop here.

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46 minutes ago, jshetley said:

Never got 1 drop here. Nothing now for 15 days. Same old pattern from the last 2 summers is here to stay until at least September, if not October. Meaning some places will get 10-15 inches of rain before I get 1 more drop here.

I see 3 possible solutions: 

1. Move

2. Adjust your outlook 

3. Remain in misery forever

 

You get one life; choose wisely! ;)

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3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Looks like the 594dm death ridge will make its first appearance this year,starting on day 4.Hopefully its in and out but eventually you get under these every summer.Will be interesting to see how hot it can get with the wet ground/soil at the moment.

I'm thinking upper 90's for GSP to CLT late week into the weekend.  Nasty

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32 minutes ago, griteater said:

I'm thinking upper 90's for GSP to CLT late week into the weekend.  Nasty

A 597 shows up briefly in the plains. Looks pretty hot over the next ten days indeed, but it looks like it wants to retrograde back west towards the end of the month. Let's hope this is the worst of our summer.

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NWS- for Raleigh

Friday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 76.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76.
Sunday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.
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3 hours ago, Solak said:

NWS- for Raleigh

Friday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 76.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76.
Sunday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.

They are calling for mid to upper 90's here from Friday thru Tuesday before back to normal.

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2 hours ago, yotaman said:

They are calling for mid to upper 90's here from Friday thru Tuesday before back to normal.

Yeah going to be 95-100 with high RH and DP's.....so some 110-120 HI values will be the case for extended periods Fri-Sun....nothing says summer like 10-12 hrs of above 100+ heat indexes every day.

 

Never fear though the models have us well below normal the last week of the run......a  few days with highs in the low 80's as the pattern delivers with yet another trough.....

gfsp_T2m_eus_44.thumb.png.c7e5b81d8771db06395b033b2284b3b8.png

 

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Looks like August could start below normal with highs barely getting into the mid 80's, most of us should see 88-90 as our average high this time of year so low to mid 80's is awesome especially considering the next 3-5 days.  So Friday thru Sunday will be hot but even so the models have backed off a lot of the 100 type temps and show mid to upper 90's which isn't really that impressive all things considered. Then Wed on next week looks below normal.....and once we get to mid Aug the chances of major heat waves start to back off and given the pattern we are in this year it seems likely that this weekend could be the worst we see all summer.....and if that is the case then this summer has been about as typical and average a summer as you will find in the SE.

 

The GFS run starting next Wed....the CMC and Euro agree.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017071812&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=0

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