MichaelJ Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Well that 12z GFS Para run was the best run I've seen today....cold and suppressed. 18z wasn't much different, an improved run fo sho. Why do you say that Grit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, SN_Lover said: What's the scoop on the 18z ens members? Are they out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 We discussed this earlier, but the low that tracks from Arkansas to E Canada on Tues-Wed, it's the key element for the cold air behind it. The polar jet energy diving down south of Hudson Bay gets injected into that system on the 12z GFS Para and 18z GFS. That strengthens and wraps up the low, with cold air funneling in behind it. As that happens, a ridge pops out ahead of it over Greenland...but the strengthening of the E Canada low is the key piece...the Greenland ridging is moreso a side effect. We aren't going to get a big, traditional, retrograding Greenland block with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 What's the scoop on the 18z ens members? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Jon said: Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Regret asking now. Thanks anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Yesterday I posted on how the EPS was doing fairly well inside day 10....well one thing it and the GEFS did was model to much Atlantic/SER. Didn't really lose it until inside day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Some wild swings in those panels. Not the precip location but how it is arrayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Jon - We could all live with E5 - but what's the probability? Nil to less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yesterday I posted on how the EPS was doing fairly well inside day 10....well one thing it and the GEFS did was model to much Atlantic/SER. Didn't really lose it until inside day 5. That's great to know, pack. This is why we can't give up hope because of a SER issue. Now, the other blocks, handling of energy, etc...different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 27 minutes ago, MichaelJ said: Why do you say that Grit? MJ - if you're asking about the 12z Para, I just want to see a load of cold air sent SE mid next week. I have little concern with getting precip to come out of the gulf late week given the SW flow regime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 RAH starting to mention a possibility for late next week: The front moving through the area late Wednesday will be stalling across the gulf states and looks to begin reloading the whole process, with in-situ damming and overrunning setting up again on Thursday. Have low confidence in the timing and will maintain slight chance PoPs for now. Stay tuned, as colder air across the upper Midwest could be shunted south to add yet another variable/consideration to the forecast equation Thursday night and Friday. **Not sure if this is the same time period we're talking about; seems a little early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, griteater said: MJ - if you're asking about the 12z Para, I just want to see a load of cold air sent SE mid next week. I have little concern with getting precip to come out of the gulf late week given the SW flow regime Yes I was talking about the Para and thanks for the response, plenty of time to watch this but I am getting that queasy Miller B'ish feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, griteater said: I just want to see a load of cold air sent SE mid next week wouldn't we all? and i respond with all due respect. in fact if a cold air load could last until feb 31st (ha ha) - but dadgum if i can see any sustained cold on any model .... and w/o cold there's nothing else to work with except maybe an early t'nado season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, griteater said: In addition to what QueenCity posted... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yzhu/gif/pub/AAS200512_Zhu.pdf http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ That is awesome, thank you! Reading the paper now Edit: Just finished reading through the links - exactly what I was looking for. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 0z runs beginning now. looks encouraging so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 54 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: 0z runs beginning now. looks encouraging so far. What model started running an hour ago?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I hope he's not extrapolating out the 84 hr NAM already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 What model started running an hour ago??I wanted to ask... but why bother lolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: I wanted to ask... but why bother lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Haha I think people are a tad anxious lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 00z GFS already has the wave closed off by 120 over Northern California. This will probably slow it down and hold it back a good bit. EDIT: it reopens at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Interesting note, at 120, the GFS splits what would become our 50/50 low into two separate LPs...since we want a STRONGER initial system to pull in that northerly cold air from Canada, I don't think that's a good thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: 00z GFS already has the wave closed off by 120 over Northern California. This will probably slow it down and hold it back a good bit. EDIT: it reopens at 126 I don't think the wave is either stronger/weaker looks the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, TiltedStorm said: I don't think the wave is either stronger/weaker looks the same Looks slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Looks slower It is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Cold press isn't as good as 18z...don't think we're gonna like the end result here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 more moisture at 165 than 18z for sure out towards tx and la Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Cold press isn't as good as 18z...don't think we're gonna like the end result here... Temps, snow accumulations, and qpf output shouldn't be weighted heavily at this range. Lots of variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Interesting note, at 120, the GFS splits what would become our 50/50 low into two separate LPs...since we want a STRONGER initial system to pull in that northerly cold air from Canada, I don't think that's a good thing... Maybe the ns energy will phase with the one we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: more moisture at 165 than 18z for sure out towards tx and la Yeah, this one looks juicy...hopefully not TOO juicy because it'll pull it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Jonathan said: Yeah, this one looks juicy...hopefully not TOO juicy because it'll pull it north. diff more precip then last runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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