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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
On 4/20/2017 at 9:02 PM, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I concur. We have magically been transformed from the SE into the new desert SW. The multiple inches of rain over the past 3 weeks have been a complete mirage, as is my runaway grass growth, heck, even having grass at all is a pipe-dream. You might be a little optimistic here, may not see a drop till at least Sept when we'll have a faint shot at a tropical system dropping a few sprinkles leading to a mass bloom for a few days.

Here are a few points form an article I read earlier today: They are going to start relocating wildlife and bugs next week, in anticipation of a massive drought driven die off. "They'll have a much better chance of survival in Death Valley national park, where the wet and cool weather should sustain them," a biologist said. Emergency personnel and power companies are bracing for massive human sickness and power failures, while scientists and climatologists are flocking to the area to research the upcoming temperature readings normally found only on Venus. "It's a once in a lifetime opportunity to experience such temps," one scientist was quoted as saying, "no where on Earth has this sort of phenomenon ever occurred." Officials will be going to great lengths to ensure the scientists survival. Native residents are encouraged to vacate to better climes, such as Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and even Iraq. Fans, sprinklers, ice bags, and imported water will provide absolutely no relief. "As always, please check on the elderly, small children, and especially pets," said one concerned resident. There is a lottery process to get your pet included with the animal relocation program, for more information please call your local animal shelter. Emergency officials are expected to enact a curfew, restricting all movement between the hours of 6:30 am and 10:00 pm, as conditions are not expected to be conducive for life functions during these hours. Afghanistan, Turkey, Las Vegas, and Death Valley officials are all welcoming evacuees in hopes of making their summers pleasant. Dubai residents will be conducting a worldwide telethon to raise money and supplies, and will be sending as much water as possible to victims in the affected areas!

:lol: damn...

15 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

 

Yes, I've had a lot of rain over the past 3 weeks here in the upstate, multiple inches. It looks like we are going to continue to be well above average in temps after this quick "cool down" after tomorrow, and probably a little drier too, but I've personally had enough rain for now. I just hate this pattern of way above normal temps we've been in .... like... forever! :fulltilt:

yeah the never ending above normal temps has gotten really really old but i won't complain about the rain....ponds have just now finally gotten back to near full pool. And given our tendency for long periods of dry weather and drought, i'm happy to get it when we can. 

this upcoming system is looking pretty good for some more... with really impressive totals in nc. might be enough to get an early mass bloom. :clap:

 

GFSMA_prec_precacc_084.png

 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Welp the new GFS put down 7''-10''+ for portions just NW of Wilmington,NC.

The NWS has issued flood warnings for the Tar river already, the river is currently at 3ft...

  

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
1005 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017



...The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a
Flood Warning for the following rivers in North Carolina...

  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties
  Haw River At Haw River affecting Alamance County
  Haw River Near Bynum affecting Chatham County
  Lower Little River At Manchester affecting Cumberland County
  Tar River At Louisburg affecting Franklin County
  Tar River At Tarboro affecting Edgecombe County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC065-240204-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FL.W.0006.170428T0824Z-000000T0000Z/
/TARN7.1.ER.170428T0824Z.170428T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1005 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Tar River At Tarboro.
* from late Thursday night until further notice, or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  9:15 AM Sunday the stage was 3.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by
  Friday morning and continue to rise to near 19.6 feet by Friday
  morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Lowland flooding begins south of Daniel
  Street in east Tarboro.
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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Flood watches are up for Jshetly's house..... Where is he? He must be out in the streets rejoicing. I can't wait to see his final storm total.

All of you guys getting under the flood gun need to cash in as big as possible.   Here in GA it's been wet but not enough to erase the drought.  With our areas still looking at long term problems we all need as much as a possible.   You guys are roasting shetly.  He does over dramatize but the underlying concerns are valid imo. 

IMG_3267.JPG

IMG_3268.JPG

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Mountain Dew

Mountain Dew

Posted
Posted
On 4/20/2017 at 0:30 PM, jshetley said:

The regular 12z GFS is down to .25 or less of rain on it now for much of the southeast through Monday and I'm betting it gets even drier. Some of us may have saw our last rainfall for up to 1-2 months yesterday. The drought and heat are coming bigtime from here on out. 

Take off that tin foil hat, and make a boat instead.

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

All this soil moisture will probably keep the 130s away , for atleast a month! :( The heatwave looks short lived at the end of the week!

This event was definitely widespread enough to put a big dent into the drought . A couple of more events like this would come close to ending it. 

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NGTim

NGTim

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, jshetley said:

This event was definitely widespread enough to put a big dent into the drought . A couple of more events like this would come close to ending it. 

stop wishcasting jsh.  This thing can turn on a dime.  its been raining like crazy here, closing in on 3 inches by the am, but my pond still down.  of course i'm in N. GA where the worst of the drought is centered. 

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, jshetley said:

This event was definitely widespread enough to put a big dent into the drought . A couple of more events like this would come close to ending it. 

A couple more  events like this and I'll be drowning from my attic. Had enough drought relief thank you. I'll take a couple weeks of flood relief!

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Lol @ the -NAO for the first of May!! Would have killed for that in Jan/Feb! Cold_Rain said it would happen! 

Oh yes of course.  Look at the beautiful, textbook, perfect -NAO right as summer is about to start.  Well done, -NAO.  Well done.

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.70ebb29186149a6bd9e0538610a483f0.gif

 

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_49.thumb.png.39b7d0a26b14e06d2d984efabb2ebc58.png

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

So I don't think this early season "heat wave" will stick around. RAH is also mentioning an eastern trough setting up: 

Cooler/near normal temps will follow Tuesday and Wednesday in the
wake of the cold frontal passage Monday night.
Late next week, medium range models are actually in good agreement
in showing the development of a deep trough east of the MS, with
unsettled/active weather expected to accompany this dynamic system
late Wednesday night through Friday as it progresses east into the
region.
 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

So I don't think this early season "heat wave" will stick around. RAH is also mentioning an eastern trough setting up: 

Cooler/near normal temps will follow Tuesday and Wednesday in the
wake of the cold frontal passage Monday night.
Late next week, medium range models are actually in good agreement
in showing the development of a deep trough east of the MS, with
unsettled/active weather expected to accompany this dynamic system
late Wednesday night through Friday as it progresses east into the
region.
 

 

Well, that's not what I heard.  Bunch of NWS Hype is what that is:

 

On 4/20/2017 at 0:30 PM, jshetley said:

The regular 12z GFS is down to .25 or less of rain on it now for much of the southeast through Monday and I'm betting it gets even drier. Some of us may have saw our last rainfall for up to 1-2 months yesterday. The drought and heat are coming bigtime from here on out. 

 

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