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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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12 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

How's the desert SE looking on latest run, qpf?

Just 2.6" over the next 16 days on the 00z.

Of course, they're already hinting at the usual disclaimer...

What impacts(timing/intensity/coverage), if any, upstream convection
across the GOM/Deep South has on convective potential across the
Carolinas, has and continues to be a major forecast
challenge/uncertainty, and this one is not exception.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Solak said:

Just 2.6" over the next 16 days on the 00z.

Of course, they're already hinting at the usual disclaimer...


What impacts(timing/intensity/coverage), if any, upstream convection
across the GOM/Deep South has on convective potential across the
Carolinas, has and continues to be a major forecast
challenge/uncertainty, and this one is not exception.

 

 

Looks like Shetley wrote that! :(

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Could see some frost heading into this weekend. We're getting into that time of year where, if you see frost, it could be the last time until October (or so). 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

Anomalously deep cyclone over the NE US, featuring negative H5
anomalies on the order of 3 to 4 S.D., will lift slowly north into
New England Friday and Friday night. Perturbations rotating around
this low will drop sewd and cross our region, causing periods of
cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles across the area on Friday,
But a second consecutive day of windy conditions will be the main
story, with winds gusting to 30 to 35 kts, slightly under what
we are expecting on Thursday.

With the core of the colder air over the region through Saturday,
dry and seasonably cool conditions will occur Friday through
Saturday night with winds dropping off considerably on Saturday as
the sfc high builds east into the area. Lows Friday night and again
Saturday night are expected to fall in the 35 to 40 degree range,
with best radiational and the best chance for patchy light frost
Saturday night as the sfc high settles overhead. It`s possible that
northern portions of the piedmont may need frost advisory Saturday
night.  Warming trend commences Sunday and continues thru Tuesday as
the sfc high drifts east and offshore, in advance of our next cold
front approaching from the west. Meanwhile, strong ridging aloft
will support dry conditions.
 

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More on the potential frost (and even maybe a light freeze):

<RAH>

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1045 PM Wednesday...

A ridge is expected to amplify across the Deep South and
Eastern US through over the weekend into early next week. The
thermal trough will shift east as well on Saturday, with high
pressure to settle overhead late Saturday, resulting in the best
chance of frost (and even a few freezing temps) Saturday night.
A warming trend will then continue through the week as return
flow develops between the departing high and cold front
approaching the Tenn Valley Tuesday and Wednesday, which also
brings the next chance of showers around the middle of the week.
-Smith/Ellis

 

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On 4/12/2017 at 0:06 PM, LithiaWx said:

Cool and wet summmer sounds amazing.  We can hope!!

Would be nice indeed, but I won't put any faith in anything below normal, for more than a couple of days, until after it happens. Forecast for GSP over the next week is low 80s / 60 ish, which is about average for early June, not mid April. SIIGGHHH, back to what we've been all Fall, Winter, Spring...

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