NCSNOW Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Maybe get that NW trend. Well you have the para super suppressed and the ens possibly with a couple more member suppressed verse previous runs. Verse the crap 12z euro and canadian op runs. Then you have yesterday's 12z gfs Jan 1988 redux that dropped 16+ inches here in triad. So all options are on the table and it'll be sunday night into Monday before the big picture ,features get in place and set the wheels in motion before we can zero in on what exactly is gonna happen. Several more highs and lows to go. Trust me well get one or 2 more weenie runs off a op before the smoke settles. And we'll also get another train wreck run or 2 like we had today euro 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 It's passe' folks. Time to look to the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 18z looks better imo. hopefully this is a good trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Looks like 18z is holding the s/w back longer...but a better arctic press...let's see where she goes EDIT: HEY LOOK! A Lakes Low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Energy definitely being held back...looks like it's finally being kicked out at 186hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 interesting...CAD signal baby...bigtime...but can the HP keep the track south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Ow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jonathan said: interesting...CAD signal baby...bigtime...but can the HP keep the track south... NICE! If it can slide south. Ice then snow on top. Ridge lessened this run in the Atlantic also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 That 1034 high looks to be in a solid position. Would think the CAD is fairly deep with it centered over Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Need to get the storm in a tick earlier, I feel. This run verbatim gets more people in the game, but much less snow and much more ice instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 That high would pull in a NE signature though more than NNE. Could not be as cold. Also, bet it's on the move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Looks like second low is a go at least on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Possible that hte first wave lays down some ice and then pulls down cold air as a prelude to a second system which would dump snow on top of the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 18z is slower with the first wave (or consolidates it farther west) which will give the arctic high to move in. Better confluence over the NE even though the Greenland ridge isn't really in place. Would be an in-situ scenario with the CAD high. Hopefully the Greenland block trends back in. Progression of the STJ wave is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Well, there's still a storm showing up. Just more ice, but the GFS ensembles were better last time, so we'll see. Models have been all over the place today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Looks like second low is a go at least on this run. What's the time frame on this one? Is it stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: What's the time frame on this one? Is it stronger? Too far out for specifics. We have a storm and the cold air is around. About all we can ask for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 18z GFS snow map. Still feel like the cold will be more stout and will be an I-40 special from OKC to RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Wow said: 18z GFS snow map. Still feel like the cold will be more stout and will be an I-40 special from OKC to RDU That's including a lot of ZR/IP for CAD regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 My humble and completely flippant opinion here....but something isn't right about that look. Of course it is the 18z...and we will get many more looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Kind of agree Wow. Either more rain or more frozen-to-snow, but doubt that kind of display Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Not too bad. Even if it is a mix, that could be a pretty good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, CaryWx said: My humble and completely flippant opinion here....but something isn't right about that look. Of course it is the 18z... Having watched and studied models for years, and particularly studied their veracity, I could not agree more about the 18Z (past 72 hours on any run any day of the year). Concur - something doesn't look right - too zonal across the board - but that's just IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Agree with Wow. I 40 speacil from tx to NC, atleast biggest tongue of winter precip. That's been a constant, minus the Miller b trash runs. Id be happy looking out the window at 6 inches of snow and ice next sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 You don't want a screaming NAO ridge in this case. Just the right amplitude is needed. If you get a tall ridge, it causes systems to bomb and effect the new england areas more than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 44 minutes ago, Jonathan said: interesting...CAD signal baby...bigtime...but can the HP keep the track south... Oh, there you are NE high pressure, I've been looking all over for you!! Where have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 hours ago, ajr said: For someone new to this, is there somewhere I can read a discussion on ensembles vs control/operational models? I can appreciate the utility of ensemble averaging but how is the control/operational model different exactly in terms of inputs (compared to the inputs for individual ensembles)? In addition to what QueenCity posted... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yzhu/gif/pub/AAS200512_Zhu.pdf http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: What are "50/50"s? In addition to what Lithia posted... http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/checklistImages/5050/50-50.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Well that 12z GFS Para run was the best run I've seen today....cold and suppressed. 18z wasn't much different, an improved run fo sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 What's the scoop on the 18z ens members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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