Brick Tamland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I'm not sure the models trend NW as much as they did in the past. As discussed previously (it's fairly even between south & north trends); it seems the coders for the models have fixed (adjusted for) that particular problem. Looks like the GFS and Euro have anywhere from 3 to 10 inches here. I'd take 3 and call it a day. But woukd be shocked to see anything this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like the GFS and Euro have anywhere from 3 to 10 inches here. I'd take 3 and call it a day. But woukd be shocked to see anything this time of year. But how much of that actually accumulates ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: But how much of that actually accumulates ? A lot of it looks to happen during the night, so a good bit would accumulate after the first part of getting over the warm ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Nice overnight snow event for NC per the 18z GFS. Trended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 GFS south again. jburns would have to eat crow and shovel snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Low forms off Charleston and then off Myrtle about 50 miles in the 18z. Verbatim, Rain snow line starts on the NC/SC border near Charlotte with WAA pushing in as the low deepends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 How far south will this thing go? That must be a big high pressure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just a bunch of dart throwing with the models right now as usual. My hunch is that we will see a wave with a storm as opposed to the Euro fizzle job...I believe the focus should be on wanting to see continued cold trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 18z GFS also shows the 540 line south of the Triad/Triangle for the duration of the event. Plenty of time for a NW trend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Fun with GFS trend loops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Wow, I would love to hear your analysis on this.... does it keep going south... why is euro the way it is?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Fun with GFS trend loops... That's a beaut!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 GFS looks pretty close @ 174, surface temps a little too warm, but 850s are fine for most of NC. Low a little too far OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Almost going too far south at this point. Hopefully it don't get squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Almost going too far south at this point. Hopefully it don't get squashed. Least of my worries, ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Hard to see a cold air drive down like this with all the warmth around and not see a decent surface-wave form. I suspect we'll get something stronger looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 MHX has a RN/SN mix in the grids for the northern counties on Sunday, high of 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Everyone needs to be skeptical of this setup, its hard enough to get snow here in mid winter, much less in mid March. That said it makes a certain kind of sense that this is going to happen to offset the crazy warm period we have been in, its how mother nature rolls. we have 5 days for this to change, hell even if it stays the same for the next 5 days that doesnt mean its right, the GFS had me getting a foot of snow for 3-4 straight days of runs on the Jan storm and I ended up with 1.5" of sleet after a night of 32 degrees and pouring rain. The setup though has produced for us before with the above example of March 1960, I also remember a Jan event in the early 2000's where the low track was cross country like this and the low passed just south of NC giving almost the entire state snow with higher amounts in the mts and coastal areas. If it does happen the snow is probably going to be Carolina Concrete and if 6-12" does fall all the leafed out Bradford Pears and other trees will take a lot of damage I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Wow, the GFS went boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 It's not a bad set up. There's a big high coming down from Canada and not moving out during the storm. It won't be fully in place at the start, but close. The low track, if it is somewhat suppressed as has been shown even before today, could work pretty well with that to produce wintry precip in the northern or western parts of the state. The H5 pattern is reasonable for this, with broad trough over the east and out into the Atlantic, which would prevent much northward movement and also keep confluence in place over the northern US to maintain that high pressure. We are lacking a snowpack over the central and northern US and it is March. Also, at this time frame, the models tend to have the storms way south. Just in the past 10 runs, the snow area went from NYC-BOS down to central NC. That's ridiculous. I expect northward adjustment as we get closer, and that'll probably kill snow or even mix chances for south and east NC and probably even central NC. We'll see. Either way, cold rain in early-mid March to offset the warm weather would be welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I'll take panels 1, 2, 5, 11, 13, 17, 18, and 20 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Check out the 18z ensembles!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 ^Lol where I have seen that before?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^Lol where I have seen that before?! +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^Lol where I have seen that before?! Agree CR. ...and to paraphrase your mantra--Get confidence first the cold air will be here...etc Widre sighting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Ha, after the Jan 6 disaster I'm not even going to bother looking at the GEFS. For several days beforehand it was very consistent in having several big dog for crl NC. Not trusting it this time either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, NCsandhills said: Ha, after the Jan 6 disaster I'm not even going to bother looking at the GEFS. For several days beforehand it was very consistent in having several big dog for crl NC. Not trusting it this time either. I enjoyed the 10" we got in Greensboro though! Sure Raleigh didnt get much but some of central NC did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, sarcean said: I enjoyed the 10" we got in Greensboro though! Sure Raleigh didnt get much but some of central NC did. Yeah, it really wasn't off by much. The tiniest of things can make a big difference just 60 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, sarcean said: I enjoyed the 10" we got in Greensboro though! Sure Raleigh didnt get much but some of central NC did. True. IIRC it had it over a much wider area for quite awhile, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, NCsandhills said: Ha, after the Jan 6 disaster I'm not even going to bother looking at the GEFS. For several days beforehand it was very consistent in having several big dog for crl NC. Not trusting it this time either. The problem is the GEFS maps do not take out ice from the accumulation totals therefore showing wide swaths of high snow totals that won't verify if there is a lot of mixing, which we saw and they depicted. Looking at the individual panels is helpful and during that storm there was a lot of mixing depicted by the members.. best course of action is to use soundings and NAM for warm noses when in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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