Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[jburns]

1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I'm surprised nobody is saying anything about March 12th/13th 1993 storm of century.

It comes up every year along with 1960.  I'm surprised no one has mentioned the June 14/15/16/17, 24,354 BC storm.  Cold air poured south off of the glaciers to the north. At the same time, a moisture-laden low moved north from the water to the south(not named yet).  They collided over what is now the Carolinas and produced epic amounts of snow. One old-timer at the time described it this way, "Grok uta notab wasuarto metoka."  Wow.  You can't argue with that.

 

P.S. There isn't going to be accumulating snow again in the piedmont this year.

[FallsLake]

3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Impressive.  That should suppress.

 

From the 24 hour panels:

 

[packbacker]

Can't tell but looks like it may have whiffed.

[WeatherHawk]

1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

 

Does anyone have a graphic of that March 93 storm?

[mackerel_sky]

17 minutes ago, packbacker said:

With the GEFS mean so far north into VA there must be lots of warm members with QPF max running down I-40.  

Think it's south of 6z tho?! That's all the panic , in MA

[griteater]

Reminds me of Snowgoose saying that the Euro nowadays tends to be suppressed in the medium range

[mackerel_sky]

Euro looks great! Unless your in the DT area of the world!!  

Aleet Aleet! N trend has to happen! 

[McDowell_Weather]

Soooo...... Nobody liked the euro?.. Lol I know its suppressed but imo right were we want it. Just got to wait on the good ole NW trend.....  But seriously the gfs has slowly jogged south witch is a plus in my book as long as it doesn't continue to dramatically. Also the high pressure dropping down from canada looks stronger. Its most definitely threading the needle like always but the trends look good. Just trying to be optimistic. I dont post much hopefully we can score a lil something even if its token flakes. 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

check below 

[packfan98]

Just now, McDowell_Weather said:

Soooo...... Nobody liked the euro?.. Lol I know its suppressed but imo right were we want it. Just got to wait on the good ole NW trend.....  But seriously the gfs has slowly jogged south witch is a plus in my book as long as it doesn't continue to dramatically. Also the high pressure dropping down from canada looks stronger. Its most definitely threading the needle like always but the trends look good. Just trying to be optimistic. I dont post much hopefully we can score a lil something even if its token flakes. 

It was very weak with the energy which resulted in much less wintery precip on the east side of the mountains.  There is still many hours (and model runs) left to go.  There's also room for something to turn the corner and make it further north.  We will just have to keep watching and waiting to see what happens.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

51 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Does anyone have a graphic of that March 93 storm?

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database_details.php?e=129

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Think it's south of 6z tho?! That's all the panic , in MA

I wasn't as panic stricken until I saw Euro...now I am hitting the bottle like a sailor on leave. 

[BornAgain13]

Do ya'll think this thing is trending to far south? 

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Our hope should be that it stops with the southern trends.... stabilizes on the next couple runs, and then trend north somewhat.

 

[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Do ya'll think this thing is trending to far south? 

No...until the GEFS/EPS have the jackpot down I-40 then it's not far enough south.  Still up in NC/VA border.

[packbacker]

JMA 

[BornAgain13]

Saw where Allan said the EPS was a light event like EURO OP... so again, GFS/GEFS vs. EURO/EPS

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Anyone have a Euro snow total map?????

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Any guesses as to what this afternoon's NWS discussions will say?

[FallsLake]

3 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Any guesses as to what this afternoon's NWS discussions will say?

RAH will continue with the low confidence wording. They'll continue to mention the chance of snow, but highlight the euros lighter totals. They'll also start trending temps downwards. Most models now have the storm staying safely to our south. **that's my guess   

[mackerel_sky]

7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Any guesses as to what this afternoon's NWS discussions will say?

Rain Sunday , S of I-40, but lots of uncertainty remains !

[Joe Clark]

23 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Any guesses as to what this afternoon's NWS discussions will say?

RAH DISCO:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Broad cyclonic flow will encompass the eastern US Thursday and
Friday, with westerly mid-level flow and mild weather on
Thursday. A stronger shortwave moving through the Great Lakes
Thursday will propel a cold front into the Mid-Atlantic states
and eventually south through NC on Friday, Limited moisture
return ahead of the front, owing to the westerly flow, will
limit POPs to just a slight chance of showers Friday afternoon.
Highs Thursday and Friday look to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s
both days, warmer in the south on Friday with 20-30kt
prefrontal wind gusts.

The bigger story for the weekend will be a fast moving storm system
forecast to race through the OH/TN Valleys and across NC/VA Sat night
and Sunday.  Models have trended further south with the track of
this system along the mean baroclinic zone, which suggests better
chances of wintry precip, given critical thicknesses supportive of
snow along the NC/VA border.  However, the parent Canadian high
supporting the surge of cold air is far to the northwest in south-
central Canada. Recent GFS runs develop a strong surface low off
the Carolina coast St night, but a deep cyclone is not supported by
ensemble forecasts, and the main shortwave is still multiple days
away from being sample over the Pacific Northwest.  Thus, confidence
in measurable snow and/or wintry precip is not high and likely won`t
be for a couple more days.

Behind this system, northwest flow looks to continue, with temps
near normal early next week.

[FallsLake]

Here's RAH:

The bigger story for the weekend will be a fast moving storm system
forecast to race through the OH/TN Valleys and across NC/VA Sat night
and Sunday.  Models have trended further south with the track of
this system along the mean baroclinic zone, which suggests better
chances of wintry precip, given critical thicknesses supportive of
snow along the NC/VA border.  However, the parent Canadian high
supporting the surge of cold air is far to the northwest in south-
central Canada. Recent GFS runs develop a strong surface low off
the Carolina coast St night, but a deep cyclone is not supported by
ensemble forecasts, and the main shortwave is still multiple days
away from being sample over the Pacific Northwest.  Thus, confidence
in measurable snow and/or wintry precip is not high and likely won`t
be for a couple more days.

Behind this system, northwest flow looks to continue, with temps
near normal early next week.


 

[mackerel_sky]

Lol at the winter weather expert on TWC!!!!! He was showing the RAH area, and said it could be a bad ice storm sleet/ZR , but said the 60/70s two days before the storm, would be the saving grace/ warm ground temps! Lol, it never stops

[JoshM]

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Lol at the winter weather expert on TWC!!!!! He was showing the RAH area, and said it could be a bad ice storm sleet/ZR , but said the 60/70s two days before the storm, would be the saving grace/ warm ground temps! Lol, it never stops

This storm has bust written all over it. Too many moving parts, and no HP.

[Brick Tamland]

From reading Greg Fishel's post on facebook, the Euro has been all over the place the last 5 runs from nothing to 6 inches of snow for RDU. But it looks like the other models have started showing the threat moving further south, too. Crazy to be tracking a possible decent snow storm for here in March.

[Brick Tamland]

44 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

RAH will continue with the low confidence wording. They'll continue to mention the chance of snow, but highlight the euros lighter totals. They'll also start trending temps downwards. Most models now have the storm staying safely to our south. **that's my guess   

And yesterday it was safely to our north. We have seen this before, where it starts out to our north on the models, goes way south, and then adjusts NW again a couple of days before it hits.

[FallsLake]

RAH has actually added the snow word to by grid forecast:

Saturday Night

A chance of rain before 1am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday

Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

 

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

And yesterday it was safely to our north. We have seen this before, where it starts out to our north on the models, goes way south, and then adjusts NW again a couple of days before it hits.

I'm not sure the models trend NW as much as they did in the past. As discussed previously (it's fairly even between south & north trends); it seems the coders for the models have fixed (adjusted for) that particular problem.

[McDowell_Weather]

2 hours ago, packfan98 said:

It was very weak with the energy which resulted in much less wintery precip on the east side of the mountains.  There is still many hours (and model runs) left to go.  There's also room for something to turn the corner and make it further north.  We will just have to keep watching and waiting to see what happens.

I know bro thats why i rolled my eyes with the icon lol it was a joke. But a suppressed strung out system very well could be how this plays out. Wait an see like always....