ajr Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: We never learn. I would rather be 50-100 miles north of sweet spot at this range...which is where the MA is. We talk about the northern trend but I'm curious if there's any data supporting it - my guess is what we're seeing is models not seeing WAA or something which causes snow totals to "shift" north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Calling it. Roxboro gets 1 foot of snow and Raleigh gets cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, JacobNC said: Calling it. Roxboro gets 1 foot of snow and Raleigh gets cold rain. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, ajr said: We talk about the northern trend but I'm curious if there's any data supporting it - my guess is what we're seeing is models not seeing WAA or something which causes snow totals to "shift" north. The north trend of storms can be caused by many things.... here's a few: 1) The cold air push is not as strong as was previously modeled. 2) The storm amps up more than forecasted. 3) The SE ridge is stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Surface map trend on the GFS Ensemble Mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Surface map trend on the GFS Ensemble Mean... I spy a strengthening high, that's what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Surface map trend on the GFS Ensemble Mean... Consistent with the suppressed trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherNC said: Measurable snow after the first week of March just don't happen around here. well it has happened at least once in my lifetime I remember it well I was 12 and that was well after the first week of March, but the fact that it has only happened this far east once since 1972 should also tell you something lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: +1 If this keeps up, I'm going to my sisters house, in Roxboro! road trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 42 minutes ago, ajr said: We talk about the northern trend but I'm curious if there's any data supporting it - my guess is what we're seeing is models not seeing WAA or something which causes snow totals to "shift" north. It seems that in the last few years we've had as many south trends as north. With this particular system, I'm thinking a continued south trend is possible (equal a north trend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: It seems that in the last few years we've had as many south trends as north. With this particular system, I'm thinking a continued south trend is possible (equal a north trend). Agree - the trend is suppression (for now at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, ajr said: Consistent with the suppressed trend That confluence in the NE, is straight up gangster ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That confluence in the NE, is straight up gangster ! Usually is 6 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That confluence in the NE, is straight up gangster ! It will have to be strong in order for us to have a chance down here. If this were January, I would be seriously worried about suppression. It's getting late (obviously) and I just don't like our chances. This system needs to dig some more before I will bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 12z NAM (at 84 hours) looks stronger with the high pressure coming down out of western Canada than the GFS. Consequently the southward cold air push is also better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Never Mind, It was March 1st. I was living at the 30 inch bullseye at the time and I was 4 years old and it was my first clear memory. It was extremely heavy thundersnow. Probably 5 inches per hr. Haven't seen anything even close to that since. I watched it pile up just below the top of a red wagon handle in the front yard. The drifts where about 5ft. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 12z NAM at 1pm Friday vs 06z NAM has the HP 4 mb stronger and the low moving off the ne coast 4 mb deeper - a good trend which would continue the trend of a quicker, deeper, colder push. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 going to be a good run here on the 12z gfs for northern nc/southern va i believe. tried to ignore this one as I don't want to get my hopes up but now I cant help myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: going to be a good run here on the 12z gfs for northern nc/southern va i believe. tried to ignore this one as I don't want to get my hopes up but now I cant help myself. Must not give in, must resist, must not be fooled again...... repeat after me..... In all seriousness, we still need some help. There will be some northward correction at some point. The key is if the confluence in the NE and the high pressure coming down will be as strong as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 wow, check please. nice run for central nc north here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 12z has moved even more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I might almost even maybe like that run perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I might almost even maybe like that run perhaps. Only negative is it's 114 hours out instead of 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, Mrwolf1972 said: 12z has moved even more south yeah, another slight jog south on the GFS. The wave track isn't ideal (too far north), tracking from Washington state to Iowa to NC. The cold air damming saves the day so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 ^^ And that's one big negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Would think the CMC would end up close to something good. Low in the gulf with over powering 1040hp and positively tilted h5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 How much snow does cold rain and Pack get? Pulling for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Only negative is it's 114 hours out instead of 24 hours out. Because having it 24 hours out helped out so much last time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I might almost even maybe like that run perhaps. Don't do it! You've had enough sleet for the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Would think the CMC would end up close to something good. Low in the gulf with over powering 1040hp and positively tilted h5 low. Early UKMet looks purdy good....wave tracking thru OK/AR...damming high...sfc low in NE gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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