downeastnc Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 RAH actually talks about the snow chances quite a bit in their overnight AFD .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- As of 400 AM Tuesday... The long term starts out warm and dry with temperatures in the 70s both Thursday and Friday. By Friday afternoon a dry cold front moves through the state and there could be a shower or two from it but QPF values would be very low. On Saturday, high pressure over the Tidewater, VA area will become re-enforced by a stronger high moving into NY and towards New England. This will help a cool stable airmass to begin to become locked into a cold air damming scenario. As this happens, a wave of low pressure coming out of the Great Plains strengthens into a low pressure system as it is spurred on by a strengthening upper level trough. This will force the track of the surface low further south than we have seen in previous model runs and could set the stage for some winter weather for Sunday morning. Currently the low track and interaction with the resultant wedge front from the cold air damming are in good position for possible snow across northern NC. The deterministic runs of the GFS and the ECMWF are very cold at this time and forecast soundings from the GFS would support some snow across the northern counties. That being said, these models are cold outliers and looking at the ensembles, there is much more to the story than meets the eye. Recall as well the snow event earlier in the season where the GFS and ECMWF were also cold outliers until very late in the event. At the current time about half of the individual ensemble members for the ECMWF and the GEFS have some kind of measurable winter precipitation but half do not. The ones that do not also have much higher temperatures across the north, not supportive of winter wx. Given that the origin of this system is so far away and that models have only recently trended colder we will move the forecast temperatures in that direction but aren`t ready to bite off on the potential snow event just yet but the possibility is certainly there and will require watching over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 My local TV forecast, has me at 68,70 for Sat/Sun!???? Lol! I don't expect snow here, but somebody gonna have some splainin' to do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Lol @ Mid Atlantic thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol @ Mid Atlantic thread! Are they cliff diving yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, Poimen said: Are they cliff diving yet? They jumped all over the 6Z GFS cause it jumped back north......but it was yesterdays run since the 6Z GFS is late ( out to 96 hrs now) but it to early to be cliff diving for them just like its to early to start getting hopes up in NC.....if the models still have it Thurs into Friday then we can start to believe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, Poimen said: Are they cliff diving yet? It's very touch and go! Lol! They are wishcasting the N trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Freezing rain totals from the 0z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Good morning sunshine: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, Poimen said: Are they cliff diving yet? We did that in December. now we have one guy with a body bag picking up scraps and valuables off the rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, downeastnc said: They jumped all over the 6Z GFS cause it jumped back north......but it was yesterdays run since the 6Z GFS is late ( out to 96 hrs now) but it to early to be cliff diving for them just like its to early to start getting hopes up in NC.....if the models still have it Thurs into Friday then we can start to believe.... I wont lie...that was embarrassing. But we get a little silly about our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, downeastnc said: They jumped all over the 6Z GFS cause it jumped back north......but it was yesterdays run since the 6Z GFS is late ( out to 96 hrs now) but it to early to be cliff diving for them just like its to early to start getting hopes up in NC.....if the models still have it Thurs into Friday then we can start to believe.... Ah...I hate it when a perfectly good snow storm is ruined by that little time stamp thingy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Poimen said: Ah...I hate it when a perfectly good snow storm is ruined by that little time stamp thingy lol. it happens to the best of us.....the trend is a eye opener for a lot of NC it bumps south like that a few more times and locks in it will be pretty fitting, mother nature has a way of balancing out extreme weather with extreme weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I'm a bit more concerned about ZR than excited about snow. Things are looking better for the folks north and west of RDU. And the QPF numbers (generally 1 to 1.25") would be welcome after the past few dry weeks. Here's to a last hurrah from the winter that wasn't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 34 minutes ago, downeastnc said: They jumped all over the 6Z GFS cause it jumped back north......but it was yesterdays run since the 6Z GFS is late ( out to 96 hrs now) but it to early to be cliff diving for them just like its to early to start getting hopes up in NC.....if the models still have it Thurs into Friday then we can start to believe.... Lol!!!!! Ooooooopsy! It jumped SOUTH!!!! Poor MA, looking at old runs, and wishcasting! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 LOL... they can't even get a short term forecast right, and people are grasping for the next snowstorm For tonight/Wed ---- "What initially looked like a decent rainmaker for central NC a couple of days ago is now looking like only a light precip event. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Not sure what to think of this potential. Cold air looks to push in right before the event and there seems to be decent support from the operational models that there will be winter precip somewhere in our area. Also, I would not be surprised to see a little more south trend that would put CAD areas in Ga and SC into the game. It could even go far enough south that the higher snow totals are south of RDU; as the CMC shows. But as RAH would say low confidence forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Not sure what to think of this potential. Cold air looks to push in right before the event and there seems to be decent support from the operational models that there will be winter precip somewhere in our area. Also, I would not be surprised to see a little more south trend that would put CAD areas in Ga and SC into the game. It could even go far enough south that the higher snow totals are south of RDU; as the CMC shows. But as RAH would say low confidence forecast at this point. Agreed: It's sort of like watching Clemson in the ACC tourney this week ... so much potential, but at what point does reality kick in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, RevDodd said: Agreed: It's sort of like watching Clemson in the ACC tourney this week ... so much potential, but at what point does reality kick in? For Clemson basketball , never!! All their money goes to Dabo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Measurable snow after the first week of March just don't happen around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Measurable snow after the first week of January,just don't happen around here. FYP! We're due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Even with all these south shifts we would still need the cold to over perform and probably another 50 mile south shift. That's usually what happens inside day 5...right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Even with all these south shifts we would still need the cold to over perform and probably another 50 mile south shift. That's usually what happens inside day 5...right. Don't go to sleep! Don't go to sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Measurable snow after the first week of March just don't happen around here. I'll have to get my dates straightened out but I beleive April could have been March 1980 maybe 81 was a NE coastal Plain paste bomb over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Hard to tell what happens between frames but UK looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: I'll have to get my dates straightened out but I beleive April could have been March 1980 maybe 81 was a NE coastal Plain paste bomb over a foot Never Mind, It was March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 April 1983 was latest accumulating snow NE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The snow gods will remember that time you laughed at the mid atlantic due to a south trend, ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: The snow gods will remember that time you laughed at the mid atlantic due to a south trend, ha Yeah, at this lead time we have seen the MA miss out because the system actually goes NORTH of them. Too soon to tell right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: The snow gods will remember that time you laughed at the mid atlantic due to a south trend, ha We never learn. I would rather be 50-100 miles north of sweet spot at this range...which is where the MA is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, griteater said: The snow gods will remember that time you laughed at the mid atlantic due to a south trend, ha for the record, I'm not really making fun of them--just having fun myself. One thing is for certain--I won't get myself worked up over these next couple days. If something happens, great. If not, that's fine, too! I will say this: I will be shocked if it snows south of the VA border this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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