PackGrad05 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Is that the GFS deterministic or ensemble? I think the ensemble was showing some members for central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Is that the GFS deterministic or ensemble? I think the ensemble was showing some members for central NC Thats the 12z OP Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 So GFS is furtherst north/amped over UK and CMC. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, FallsLake said: CMC: Check out SE Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Check out SE Wake. Oh come on CR. We'll get one more SE shift. ..............and then a whole bunch of NW shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Oh come on CR. We'll get one more SE shift. ..............and then a whole bunch of NW shifts. Haha, how quickly we forget this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Anybody got a clown from the Euro... saw where it shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Anybody got a clown from the Euro... saw where it shifted south Check out the Mid Atlantic thread, they are about to have an orgasm I believe !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Check out the Mid Atlantic thread, they are about to have an orgasm I believe !! Yeah Central VA gets nailed with around a foot. Us Raleigh folks just need another 50-100 miles south and its game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 36 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Oh come on CR. We'll get one more SE shift. ..............and then a whole bunch of NW shifts. I was going to say the same thing. Can't deny the south trend on the models. It looks interesting for sure. And we have seen the models show storms to the north before, then bring them way south, only to adjust NW right before it hits. Seems to be a pattern with snow threats for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: Anybody got a clown from the Euro... saw where it shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, colonel717 said: Thats 0z... need a 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Thats 0z... need a 12z Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 VERY slight south shift. VERY large north shift from 12z yesterday. (On the Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Sorry Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Would think EPS will be further south. Im right at 6" on the EURO OP.... but that's just a model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Check out the Mid Atlantic thread, they are about to have an orgasm I believe !! I am riding the UK...it says what storm. That would be funny and fitting for how this winter has gone. Can't count how many times the Euro/GFS has shown fantasy snow events that fizzled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Maybe one thing to hope for: at this time range (> 5 days) the models tend to lag some on the depiction of CAD. Not sure how far south a CAD could push / establish itself, but there looks to be plenty of cold air to the north. If anything there could be a larger southern zone of sleet/freezing rain. I would say at this point the MA is where you want to be, but we can hope for miracles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I'm suffering from 'premature cancellation' of my winter model packages!...y'all keep us posted! Strong temperature gradient along the east coast at Day 5 on Euro. -30C in northern New England (impressive cold source...would be impressive in January even) to +10C in central GA. Key shortwave entering west coast in Washington state in this setup isn't good....entering in Oregon or N Cali would be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Everyone might want to look at the EPS..... Big south shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Everyone might want to look at the EPS..... Big south shift Hmmm...tweets about the EPS. Grit doesn't have EPS access nor do I. It's like living in the stone ages again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Even ColdRain would have like all the HP being shown over the lakes. Still think the UK's idea of a squashed low is the favored solution. The UK has been great all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 RAH: Models are trending wetter for the weekend. However, the storm track/strength as well as other key features such as a CAD surface high and possible coastal front were still showing too much spread to support moderate or high confidence. Current blending methods suggest a storm track close to our region (TN valley to SC/srn NC) with a decent swath of QPF in excess of an inch over the weekend. Cooler lows in the 40s with highs in the 50s N to 60s SE may have to be adjusted significantly colder/warmer in later forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 At least the Possibility is there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 39 minutes ago, packbacker said: Even ColdRain would have like all the HP being shown over the lakes. Still think the UK's idea of a squashed low is the favored solution. The UK has been great all winter. Yep, I like the general look. I'd like to see it press in a little more ahead of the storm, which would help to keep the storm south. But come on guys...we know exactly how this is going to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 See talking about day 8 potential on EPS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Yep, I like the general look. I'd like to see it press in a little more ahead of the storm, which would help to keep the storm south. But come on guys...we know exactly how this is going to end. But it's fun watching how it unfolds. It's like watching some poor sap in the Freddie movies trying to not fall asleep....we know how it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Alright...1960 it is. Would expect the PV over Maine, which is in a great spot, will start ticking north over the next couple of days. In any/every winter that happens at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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