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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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The trend over the past couple of days has been to lift the greenland block a little further north and to raise heights in the SE.  That's why the mean snowfall is down further south.  Let's hope it stops trending that way but those 50/50's are typically over modeled at day 10 and start retreating a little quicker as you get closer.

Ideally we want the PV lobe between HB and Maine, not due east of HB.  2 days ago that's where it was.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_fh192_trend.gif

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2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What are "50/50"s?

Low pressure benchmarked at 50w and 50n coordinates.  Combined with a -nao it allows cold air to lock-in and funnel down into the south and eastern seaboard. 

 

2010-2011 featured one that was prominent with the -nao that gave us a blockbuster winter 

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3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Low pressure benchmarked at 50w and 50n coordinates.  Combined with a -nao it allows cold air to lock-in and funnel down into the south and eastern seaboard. 

 

2010-2011 featured one that was prominent with the -nao that gave us a blockbuster winter 

Thanks

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40 minutes ago, packbacker said:

The trend over the past couple of days has been to lift the greenland block a little further north and to raise heights in the SE.  That's why the mean snowfall is down further south.  Let's hope it stops trending that way but those 50/50's are typically over modeled at day 10 and start retreating a little quicker as you get closer.

Ideally we want the PV lobe between HB and Maine, not due east of HB.  2 days ago that's where it was.

 

Yep, that sucks.  The good -NAO was what I had my hopes on.  Hopefully it comes back but I'm not holding my breath. 

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14 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Yep, that sucks.  The good -NAO was what I had my hopes on.  Hopefully it comes back but I'm not holding my breath. 

We should have known better! Had a fake -NAO show up awhile back, and didn't materialize, and we haven't had one in 6 years or so, in winter! And some model runs had it and a blockbuster storm, and now maybe losing it, should've expected this!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

We should have known better! Had a fake -NAO show up awhile back, and didn't materialize, and we haven't had one in 6 years or so, in winter! And some model runs had it and a blockbuster storm, and now maybe losing it, should've expected this!

You guys have to stop living and dying on every model run.  This place has some serious bipolar tendencies going on here.  

 

Its hard to argue this isn't the best shot we have had all winter.  It's still a week out and has time to trend one way or another.  

 

Everyone chill the **** out and realize it could be much worse.  Again the players are there just not where we need them.  As January comes along watch for more and more opportunities. 

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2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

You guys have to stop living and dying on every model run.  This place has some serious bipolar tendencies going on here.  

 

Its hard to argue this isn't the best shot we have had all winter.  It's still a week out and has time to trend one way or another.  

 

Everyone chill the **** out and realize it could be much worse.  Again the players are there just not where we need them.  As January comes along watch for more and more opportunities. 

Yeah, but, when the players on the field are the Panthers, it's hard to get excited! :(

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, but, when the players on the field are the Panthers, it's hard to get excited! :(

Think of it like the 49ers with joe Montana at he helm with the offensive line lined up offsides.  The players are damn good just not in correct position.  And I'm not talking thousands of miles.  The positions aren't that far off. 

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45 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What are "50/50"s?

There's a newbie thread that shouldn't be too far down on the main page of our subforum with explanations of a lot of things.

 

16 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

You guys have to stop living and dying on every model run.  This place has some serious bipolar tendencies going on here.  

 

Its hard to argue this isn't the best shot we have had all winter.  It's still a week out and has time to trend one way or another.  

 

Everyone chill the **** out and realize it could be much worse.  Again the players are there just not where we need them.  As January comes along watch for more and more opportunities. 

THIS x1000.

 I told everyone not to freak out at the 12z OP, EPS will be the same...it was. They are still upset, now because the ensemble mean snow went down 1" for their backyard. We have a loooooong way to go folks. Enjoy the ride and remember BIG PICTURE. Potential is still very, very much there...models lose storms very often, many times between 10 days worth of runs, folks should know this.

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1 minute ago, Jon said:

There's a newbie thread that shouldn't be too far down on the main page of our subforum with explanations of a lot of things.

 

THIS x1000.

 I told everyone not to freak out at the 12z OP, EPS will be the same...it was. They are still upset, now because the ensemble mean snow went down 1" for their backyard. We have a loooooong way to go folks. Enjoy the ride and remember BIG PICTURE. Potential is still very, very much there...models lose storms very often, many times between 10 days worth of runs, folks should know this.

The ensemble mean went down because of more suppresion, cold as opposed to cutter due to SER. So that's a posotive to take away imo. 

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26 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

You guys have to stop living and dying on every model run.  This place has some serious bipolar tendencies going on here.  

 

Its hard to argue this isn't the best shot we have had all winter.  It's still a week out and has time to trend one way or another.  

 

Everyone chill the **** out and realize it could be much worse.  Again the players are there just not where we need them.  As January comes along watch for more and more opportunities. 

Great post. Seems like the mood swings wildly in here. Then the ensembles come out and things don't look that bad. We are going to have swings every single run until we get in under 2 or 3 days.

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2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Great post. Seems like the mood swings wildly in here. Then the ensembles come out and things don't look that bad. We are going to have swings every single run until we get in under 2 or 3 days.

Yep, too early to freak out (either way) about 1 or even 2 op runs. Always, always, always wait for the ensembles to verify or contradict the op before placing your bets

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