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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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12 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

They issued it because of the fact of the overall warm winter and record warm February , the growing season has already started!

Does anyone know if RDU broke the record for warmest February?  I know we were in competition with 1931 or something like that.

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Well, the 00z Euro has a 975mb bomb off of Jersey, blanketing DCA to Maine in ~20-30" snow....on Kuchera ratios it's 20-50" widespread, would be a HECS.....hahaha. If that happens, this winter would go down as the greatest winter for the NE of all time (no brutal cold, overwhelming warm temps DJF, and historic east coast snow mid-March)

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10 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Does anyone know if RDU broke the record for warmest February?  I know we were in competition with 1931 or something like that.

February comes is as the warmest of the period of record at both Greensboro and Raleigh breaking records set in 1927 and 1890 respectively. More details below.

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From Greg Fishel:
"

It would be terribly ironic if I am the first to post this, but even if I hadn't, you would have heard it from someone in the next 12 hours I feel quite certain.

So the European deterministic model is forecasting 6" of snow at RDU next weekend. There is next to no ensemble support for this, either from the European or American(GFS) sides. The European model and it's ensembles are run twice a day, while the GFS and its ensembles are run 4 times a day. As best I can, I will update the forecasts from all verifying next weekend from 7am Saturday to 8am Monday(notice the hour jump with DST). The intent of this exercise is to demonstrate the value of ensemble forecasting versus using deterministic models. Of course, if we end up with a big snowstorm next weekend, my face will be red, but that's what will make this fun! So here are the forecasts from 7am this morning for next weekend:

European Deterministic Model:
Total Snow: 6"
European Ensemble Mean:
Total Snow: .4"
GFS Deterministic Model
Total Snow: 0"
GFS Ensemble Mean:
Total Snow: 0"

Now here are the GFS numbers from 1pm this afternoon:
GFS Deterministic Model:
Total Snow: 0"
GFS Ensemble Mean:
Total Snow: 0"

The European model and it's ensembles come out in the middle of the night, so if I'm smart, I'll get some sleep and update in the am 1f642.png:-)""

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On 3/4/2017 at 11:01 AM, Solak said:

February comes is as the warmest of the period of record at both Greensboro and Raleigh breaking records set in 1927 and 1890 respectively. More details below.

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Well at least we (RDU) didn't it crush it too bad.  Given the much warmer background state of today's climate, I would say that the 1890 year was a more anomalous event.  Of course we have set records for December and February in successive winters.  January 2018, here's looking to you!!

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On 3/4/2017 at 11:01 AM, Solak said:

February comes is as the warmest of the period of record at both Greensboro and Raleigh breaking records set in 1927 and 1890 respectively. More details below.

No automatic alt text available.

Something that puzzles me is 1939 shows up at #4 for Raleigh but doesn't even make the top 10 for Greensboro, which means that it was less than 46.1.  So somehow that year Greensboro was at least 5 F cooler than Raleigh.  That seems odd for two locations so close together and with only minor topographical differences between them.

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What's amazing is that with all the screaming about Global Warming, only 2 out of the top 10 have occurred since 1950.  Maybe there's a reason the  warmanistas only go back to the 50's or so to "prove" the warming trend.  If they went back to the early 1900's, it might give a different perspective.

TW

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Something that puzzles me is 1939 shows up at #4 for Raleigh but doesn't even make the top 10 for Greensboro, which means that it was less than 46.1.  So somehow that year Greensboro was at least 5 F cooler than Raleigh.  That seems odd for two locations so close together and with only minor topographical differences between them.

I just noticed that 1976 was on the list.  January 1977 was the coldest month in RDU history, so maybe if we squint hard enough, there is hope.

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