Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: 18z GFS = WOW!!! The 540 line NEVER even comes close to NC the whole run!!!!!!! #unbelievablesocalledwinter same old song How many days out does the run go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 How many days out does the run go?16 days. It's over!! Go ahead and plant your garden. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Forget severe. Either all the dynamics will go north and west as the system heads to the Lakes, or we'll be locked in with the wedge with low clouds and stratiform rain showers as the system reforms off the Mid Atlantic coast. The dynamics go north, we get Shetleyed, as the front loses its umph, over the mountains and the drought ramps up to severe by July ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: The dynamics go north, we get Shetleyed, as the front loses its umph, over the mountains and the drought ramps up to severe by July ! Here's what I think will happen...... All the fruit trees will bloom and then we will have a cold front that sweeps through with a hard freeze. I have seen this movie before. Heck some of the peach trees in upper SC are blooming already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Fantasy range has some frost and freeze. You know it's bad when that's all we can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 6z GFS says we may see frost/freezes on day 6 and then again on day 10. This is now a real threat with how warm it's been. I believe many of us may be one month ahead of schedule (bloomage wise). This would make any potential early April freeze so much more devastating. In other news California looks to continue getting abundant precip. This is for the next two weeks and most of the totals in the mountains will be snow; ~ 130" (or more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 8 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Here's what I think will happen...... All the fruit trees will bloom and then we will have a cold front that sweeps through with a hard freeze. I have seen this movie before. Heck some of the peach trees in upper SC are blooming already. Trees need to schedule their blooming based on April sun angle and not February temperature; dumb trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Moonhowl said: Trees need to schedule their blooming based on April sun angle and not February temperature; dumb trees. I'm in RIC visiting family and they are starting to bloom here. That can't be good although GFS shows warm next 15 days so who knows maybe straight into spring for SE and MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I'm in RIC visiting family and they are starting to bloom here. That can't be good although GFS shows warm next 15 days so who knows maybe straight into spring for SE and MA. Had a low of 29. Currently 30 with freezing fog all over the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: 6z GFS says we may see frost/freezes on day 6 and then again on day 10. This is now a real threat with how warm it's been. I believe many of us may be one month ahead of schedule (bloomage wise). This would make any potential early April freeze so much more devastating. In other news California looks to continue getting abundant precip. This is for the next two weeks and most of the totals in the mountains will be snow; ~ 130" (or more). Here just north of Nashville TN we are honestly about four weeks ahead of where we should be. Closer to Nashville all sorts of things are in bloom from Saucer Magnolias to Forsythia to Daffodils. Things that are not necessarily bloomers are also popping out, many of the non-blooming trees are putting out, the pines are starting to wake up. I really do not see anything in the near future to slow things down. If it is after two weeks then that could be a real issue as in two weeks things will be totally leafed out or close to it. Here is to hoping we just move right into Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 hour ago, weathertree4u said: Here just north of Nashville TN we are honestly about four weeks ahead of where we should be. Closer to Nashville all sorts of things are in bloom from Saucer Magnolias to Forsythia to Daffodils. Things that are not necessarily bloomers are also popping out, many of the non-blooming trees are putting out, the pines are starting to wake up. I really do not see anything in the near future to slow things down. If it is after two weeks then that could be a real issue as in two weeks things will be totally leafed out or close to it. Here is to hoping we just move right into Spring! I hope we do, but as we move into "real" spring the pattern waves will become shorter; meaning we'll eventually see some cold shots. The air up north is still winter cold so I fear bad things are going to happen, agriculturally wise, the next 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 This winter's goose is cooked: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 36 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: This winter's goose is cooked: What worries me is right now we know winters goose is cooked but, our goose is going to be fried if we continue to have 20+ degrees above normal temps heading into the summer season. I have to work outside alot and it was the worst I have ever seen last summer and don't want to even think that it could even be worse this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 If we see -50F departures the last week of Feb this may verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 This is way out in fantasy land for the GFS but it shows what can (and will eventually) happen after a long warm spell. 12z GFS day 11: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Unfortunately the cold has stayed bottled up in the Pacific nw. Almost typical nina climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Look at month to date anomalies. Nice and toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 44 minutes ago, FallsLake said: This is way out in fantasy land for the GFS but it shows what can (and will eventually) happen after a long warm spell. 12z GFS day 11: If it was GFS day 2, I might bite!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 If the day 11+ GEFS was right this would have been a really cold/snowy winter. To bad it goes away in a month or two, next winter won't nearly be as much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If it was GFS day 2, I might bite!? I totally understand. 18z will show something different. But, I still bet we'll get at least one or two more hard freezes before the middle of April. So many things are staring to bloom, that hard freezes are something that we shouldn't hope for; hence (knowing our luck) it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: I totally understand. 18z will show something different. But, I still bet we'll get at least one or two more hard freezes before the middle of April. So many things are staring to bloom, that hard freezes are something that we shouldn't hope for; hence (knowing our luck) it will happen. Yeah, agreed 100%! We've wanted snow all winter and except for a 3 day fluke in January, it's basically been torch city! Now that we want it to stay warm and no crop damage, and it's too late basically for the cold to give us any snow, I could SE a mid 20s night peppered in through March and April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: I totally understand. 18z will show something different. But, I still bet we'll get at least one or two more hard freezes before the middle of April. So many things are staring to bloom, that hard freezes are something that we shouldn't hope for; hence (knowing our luck) it will happen. We probably will see a freeze again. Even in 99 (nina), which was a torch winter, but not as warm as this winter, did have a week in mid-March that was very cold. Actually had flakes in the area. But, had some stout blocking. Interestingly enough was also MJO phase 1-3 during this period. March as a whole for 99 was BN in the east, which I don't really see happening this March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 The Sun reached an elevation of 38° today, resulting in rays that are 34% stronger than on the 1st day of Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Hard to get more boring weather than this. What a disaster. The big purple/whitish blob will probably move south in mid-March, just in time to freeze the dickens out of all of the plants that are about a month and a half ahead of schedule: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Hard to get more boring weather than this. What a disaster. The big purple/whitish blob will probably move south in mid-March, just in time to freeze the dickens out of all of the plants that are about a month and a half ahead of schedule: If you would have told me after the 2004 winter we would only have one 6" event and no more 10" seasons through atleast 2017 I would have said no chance...LOL. Now trying to imagine a 2-4" snow event in the next few years seems impossible. Let's hope I am wrong again. The warmth feels great but where our climate is headed, and not just with respect to winters/snow, is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, packbacker said: If you would have told me after the 2004 winter we would only have one 6" event and no more 10" seasons through atleast 2017 I would have said no chance...LOL. Now trying to imagine a 2-4" snow event in the next few years seems impossible. Let's hope I am wrong again. The warmth feels great but where our climate is headed, and not just with respect to winters/snow, is concerning. Strange thing is there has been cold air available. We just don't get blocking anymore. From what I've read (...can't list, been awhile), global warming / warming arctic can actually help blocking. I think we have multiple problems occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, packbacker said: If you would have told me after the 2004 winter we would only have one 6" event and no more 10" seasons through atleast 2017 I would have said no chance...LOL. Now trying to imagine a 2-4" snow event in the next few years seems impossible. Let's hope I am wrong again. The warmth feels great but where our climate is headed, and not just with respect to winters/snow, is concerning. Yeah...every time I see a map of ocean temps, I'm just astounded as to how much more area is covered by orange than blue. I don't know of any way to empirically measure the intensity plus area of blue vs. orange, but anecdotally, it looks like the oceans are much warmer (on a net basis) than normal. We're seeing ocean life die off at an alarming rate. That is concerning from an ecosystem standpoint. What is the critical point of deterioration in the ecosystem that will create a noticeable impact on human life? If we're not there yet, we have to be getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, packbacker said: If you would have told me after the 2004 winter we would only have one 6" event and no more 10" seasons through atleast 2017 I would have said no chance...LOL. Now trying to imagine a 2-4" snow event in the next few years seems impossible. Let's hope I am wrong again. The warmth feels great but where our climate is headed, and not just with respect to winters/snow, is concerning. Atlanta has gone I think 13 straight months of above average temperates and that doesn't look to stop going into March. Amazing. I truly hope we can have a cooler summer. I don't think I can handle another 2016-like Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 3 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah...every time I see a map of ocean temps, I'm just astounded as to how much more area is covered by orange than blue. I don't know of any way to empirically measure the intensity plus area of blue vs. orange, but anecdotally, it looks like the oceans are much warmer (on a net basis) than normal. We're seeing ocean life die off at an alarming rate. That is concerning from an ecosystem standpoint. What is the critical point of deterioration in the ecosystem that will create a noticeable impact on human life? If we're not there yet, we have to be getting close. What happened to the warm oceans = cold continents theory I heard so much about a few years back?? Seems to be correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 1 hour ago, LovingGulfLows said: Atlanta has gone I think 13 straight months of above average temperates and that doesn't look to stop going into March. Amazing. I truly hope we can have a cooler summer. I don't think I can handle another 2016-like Summer. I can almost guarantee they have never had a stretch of below normal months this long!? Hell, they've never had 6 months below normal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.